VIDEOS

Raoul is back with James Aitken and they are back talking about the “liquidation phase.” They speak about what will happen if growth continues to trend down. There are fears of the largest “insolvency event.” They go into discussing the difficulties that bars and restaurants will face when deciding to reopen, and how we are looking for recovery. Aitken believes the global economy has turned off, and 1 billion people are waiting for a bailout at home. They end by discussing the possibility of state and local bailouts within the United States.

Raoul is back with James Aitken and they are discussing the currency markets. They discuss the US dollar and the Fed, and why the dollar isn’t weakening. Furthermore, they discuss the flow of dollar securities and the flow of them. They end by taking about Aitken’s trip to China, and the interesting aspects of the Chinese banking system.

Real Vision’s own Raoul Pal and James Aitken discuss the ECB, and the future plans for preventing fragmentation in Europe going forward. Aitken elaborates, saying that the ECB is receiving very cheap funding, and talks about their balance sheets. They then talk about bonds, and how there is a “colossal” amount of bonds to be issued. Aitken and Raoul discuss how the next few quarters are likely to be tough ones, with the possibility for Great Depression like numbers. They end by discussing a variety of topics, such as treasury securities and yields.

This week Real Vision use Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the latest conversations about monetary policies that continue to stack the rebound in favor of risk assets and large corporates, at the expense of the real economy. Are these policies continuing to damage the economy despite the recovery in equities? The Chatter looks at the sell-off in the US dollar and puts the bull vs bear debate in historical context. The Whisper looks at the potential rise of both bankruptcies and the zombie company.

James Aitken, partner at Aitken Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the intricate relationship between bond and FX markets and how this often overlooked connection is playing out at this critical juncture of the credit cycle. Aitken and Pal put the recently announced central bank policies – remarkably generous swap lines, sweeping repo facilities, and the revival of quantitative easing (QE) – in proper context and analyzes how central banks' commitment to be the "buyers of first resort" will affect cross-currency basis swaps, yields on corporates, and the U.S. dollar. Aitken also describes his investing framework to deploying capital in this unprecedented economic crisis.

This week Roger Hirst is joined by multiple guests to explain what alternative data is and how it is being used in the world today.

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss a roaring day on Wall Street as the U.S. labor market breathed a sigh of relief. Looking at everything from tech valuations to the AUD/USD trade, Raoul and Ash dive deeper into this jam-packed news day to see whether the economy really is on the mend. In the intro, Jack Farley touches on these themes and previews Raoul’s interview with Gerard Minack.

In a different type of interview, Raoul Pal and Dylan Grice end their conversation with some different questions. They delve into a myriad of personal questions, such as “If you could interview anyone who would it be?” and “What are you reading right now?” Dylan Grice a great and thoughtful response to what books are his favorites, and elaborates why. They also go into Grice’s heroes, and many other personal questions that are a very nice change of pace that give us a personal view.

Raoul Pal continues his conversation with Dylan Grice, this time talking about diversification with regards to bonds, uranium, and CLOs. Dylan Grice believes there is a potential return of 20% on CLOs. Raoul believes that many people balance risk vs. reward when deciding whether or not to invest in an asset management firm. They also talk about assets being liquid, specifically catastrophe bonds. With regards to uranium, there have been a good deal of mine shutdowns which Dylan Grice feels that investing in Uranium is more “event driven” and may be a good investment. In conclusion, Dylan Grice believes there is no substitute for “doing your homework” and stresses the need for people to be informed.

Raoul Pal and Dylan Grice discuss when and when not to hedge or go all in. Grice believes it is “easier to react than to predict.” Him and Raoul discuss this topic at length and more. He emphasizes the need to act now rather than later. With regards to asset classes, they get into which classes are interesting to see from a market perspective, and discuss how credit effects them. There is an emphasis to get hands on and get “down and dirty” with regards to the markets and understanding investments. Finally, they end with emerging markets and the possibilities surrounding them.

Raoul Pal and Dylan Grice discuss the launch of Dylan’s new asset management business and the potential risks involved with it. They then begin to discuss the potential economic ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic and the possibility of keeping borders closed for an extended period of time. The personal implications of COVID-19 are discussed, from just knowing people who have had to deal with the disease, to family who are presently dealing with it. They then go into the time period of the normal credit cycle, and how competitors can take advantage of it and how you must restructure your balance sheet because of it. Tying it all to COVID-19, Dylan Grice thinks we should “go low” and realize that we are 18-24 months away from making new highs in the market. Raoul then goes into discussion of how Dylan Grice sizes up the credit event, and he gives his thoughts on the matter.