Is the Economy Really on the Mend? (w/ Raoul Pal and Ash Bennington)

Video Transcription:

  Is the Economy Really on the Mend? (w/ Raoul Pal and Ash Bennington)

It's Friday June 5th 2020 just after market closed in New York this is the real vision daily briefing I'm ash Bennington from New York joined shortly by our CEO and co-founder rau Powell in the Cayman Islands but first Jack Farley with the latest on the jobs report thanks ash it's jobs day and today we saw a rare glimmer of hope from the US labor market looking at non-farm payrolls the US economy added two and a half million new jobs in May defying the dismal seven and a half million job losses forecasted by economists manufacturing payrolls came in at a robust 225,000 much better than the 400,000 losses that were expected the unemployment rate was expected to reach 19 percent but it fell to 13.3% as management service sales construction mining production and transportation all reported strong new high links it should be noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics ended the report by saying there was a large number of US workers who are classified as employed but in fact were absent from work and if these workers had been counted as unemployed the unemployment rate would have been about three percentage points higher amid this good news there was a frenzy on Wall Street today for risk assets with the ESPE up 2.8 percent as of the time of this filming as of yesterday US stocks could already boast the greatest 50-day rally in the history of the S&P 500 so today is just the cherry on top equity in Hertz Global Holdings previously dismissed as worthless as the company declared bankruptcy in late May was bid up dramatically up 77 percent and up 825 percent since its lows this Zeo by investors is not limited to equities as the Australian dollar largely seen as a barometer for global risk rallied today finally piercing through the 70 cent ceiling against the US dollar this level exceeds the highest seen before the emergence of kovat 19 speaking of the Aussie dollar ravish'd did a fantastic interview with Gerrard Manette where they discussed this very topic if you are a fan of Rao's interview with James Aitken I think you're gonna like this one as well so it seems like the labour market and the stock market are no longer contradicting each other at least for now so far the off cited vishay recovery so evident on the chart of the SP has eluded the real economy and workers in particular but now we have a first glimpse that the bifurcation between Wall Street and Main Street could be at an end the question going forward will this continue President Trump today scientist ability Act which extends the deadline by which companies have to rehire workers from June 30th to December 31st the PPP FA also lowers the required allocation of funds towards payroll expenses reducing it from 75 percent to just 60 percent and it also extends the maturity for PPP loans from two to five years to make sense of this and more let's turn to senior editor ash Bennington with someone I'm sure you'll be very glad to see real visions CEO rail pal the next Jack welcome background thank you good to be here ash Riley you look different today yes I know the beautiful looks but we needed a better camera for it you know as you know the the the bloody imagery here little K mum's terrible my computer was a bit too old so I mean Brian who works with us built an incredible rig with a state-of-the-art digital camera lighting a brand-new MacBook Pro and next week or the week after I'll get a kind of Wi-Fi booster as well so we're actually looking like we're coming into the modern age now where you know we can start to see a bit more clearly yeah it's really fun Branka food as a rock star I think I'm next on the camera front but getting into seeing more clearly talking of which can we see more clearly into what's happening in markets right now look you know I was I was the kind of host speaker for a Goldman Sachs hedge fund event roundtable this week and talking to a lot of the guys the really big hedge funds macro funds in Europe in the US I mean everyone still a bit shocked what's going on people don't understand it the technical analysts have done better and obviously the Robin Hood day traders have done better because that's kept them within the trend and you know the trend of the stock market's been truly extraordinary and you know Bravo to those people have called them and I've been lucky not part of the stock market haven't sure that haven't been long a bit I've kind of kept out of its way but yeah clearly it's gone further than they thought I'm kind of still using the Russell 2000 as my guide to what's really going on because there's so much passive flows and it's distorting a lot of things there's a lot of flows that I've heard coming out of the PPP payments where people have essentially got doubled salary and you know they're throwing money into the market whether it's you know betting like sports betting essentially on the market and the Robin Hood or whether it's putting money into their 401ks I think I do think those flows slow down or I come on a bit in a bit later about what I'm concerned about coming forwards but it's been extraordinary and it's lifted you know all the risk on things have gone up with it you know whether it's copper or oil or emerging markets or you know the dollar getting weaker and so it's been a one-way train for a while now and you know our job all of us is to figure out the signal from the noise you know the question is is is this 2008 or 2009 or is this June Nikkei 1990 June Nikkei 1990 was the end of the hope rally and then we changed my premise is still on that hope rally phase but you know I'm in no rush to short anything do anything the bond markets been interesting today it kind of blew up it's been in a very very tight range for a while you know as the rates were on the floor and they backed up today with those employment numbers so it's it's an interesting time you know that the dollar is weakened massively all week so we'll see next weeks of fresh week I'm thinking a lot of these moves are going to be faded and kind of interested in fading the Euro move and fading the bomb move but let's say it's early days yet you know that's very well said and a lot there for those who haven't seen just a quick review you know the US 10-year yield was over a 90 basis points today closed around 0.87 8 cut back to the russell 2000 was up over 4% near the closed closed down at the closed down from the highs i should say at the 1506 spot 47 level up 3.75 percent on the day Nasdaq up to the 98 14 level up 2 percent on the day SP 500 up 2.6 percent on the day - 31 93 and finally closing it out the Dow up to 27 105 up three point one three percent on the day quite a rally on that jobs report yeah and see the jobs report again is there's always shenanigans in the data and the market and it's irrelevant right whatever we think is irrelevant the market is the truth and the market went up on it and that's what we trade we don't trade the underlying but underlying it's a lot of this PPP extension yeah so what it basically meant is that anybody was gonna be laid off it was kept on the labor force longer so suddenly the unemployment rate goes down so look the unemployment rate is gonna go down for a whole period of time it's not clear where it's gonna peak or where it's gonna stabilize that I mean the market doesn't know any of these things but it's making the bet right now that it knows that it's all going to return back to normal I still think unemployment you know bottoms out you're at 8% or so which is usually a bad recession so again you know I keep reiterating is I do the maths on these numbers that down 50% no because the u.s. is crazy does this quarter-on-quarter annualized basis which nobody else in the world does because it's nonsense so it's like down 50 percent it's like baseball scores versus soccer scores right everybody just want basketball scores no one wants a million points in America everyone's happy with that one all draw in Europe for football but so you've got down 50% because that's what it'll answer fed are talking about then next chord is gonna be up 20 the biggest quarter ever and then up 20 again right it's ridiculous yes the reality is is we'll have gone from something like down seven and a half percent year-on-year which is what matters yeah and by the end of the year if we use the markets forecast we're actually probably down still two percent year-on-year so we're still in deep recession that's deeper than the 2001 recession when you're there but the market doesn't want to look at that because it wants to impute a forward rate however I'm looking at okay that's fine if that's what the market wants to do let it do that and that will give us an opportunity if you're so inclined to look at entry levels into bonds and dollars and stuff where or adding levels I'm still all in my trades where the fiscal stimulus starts rolling off so the first ones is the care act that rolls off generally in July June and July they will extend some format a bit but it'll be less the marginal rate is what matters here because as the marginal rates fall there's less stimulus the fiscal stimulus starts slowing down as the Fed balance sheet expansion has slowed down dramatically and then the Treasury starts issuing bonds and that soaks liquidity out of the market that's all to come as trillions and trillions of dollars of of government borrowing in the US and around the world happen so there's a huge shock of liquidity that's going to come out of the market we've also got I think there's an interesting thing with and I posted some things on Twitter about the potential for a second wave look none of us know so don't accuse me of trying to play something I'm not on the internet all I do know is most of the Islamic countries had reopened partly for Ramadan and immediately after Ramadan two weeks after Ramadan they've all had a second wave Iran's back at all time Peaks and the Middle East is above its peak so and Saudi today just announced that they're going to close one of their major cities so I think there's a risk of that particularly the United States where the RO was not reduced to below one in most places outside of New York New Jersey and I think New Orleans and maybe San Francisco so they're reopening with an R nought above and that's so most people think that the second wave if it should come and again I don't play an expert on this but if it should come most people thought is to do with weather where there seems to be a more marginal factor it could be a factor but the reality is is if you reopen and your RO is above one that difference means that all of the people got it because the US outside of New York and New Jersey is at peak virus still the number of cases per day remains extremely high that means that those numbers compound very quickly and you get an exponential growth in the virus so you know we've got mass demonstrations understandably so but it increases the risk of this and then we've got you know fourth of July to come and a bunch of other things where people get together so I've got my own all of these risks and I'm just kind of watching scratching my beard and thinking okay is the market going to overprice success here because that that's real opportunity I'm not much of a momentum trader I like to look for those turning points and then press on a trend earlier on and get out you know two-thirds of the way into it yeah you know when I was asked her and he asked me anything about what my tail risks where it was a social unrest and a second wave of the virus you know as you point out that are not number is so important it's an exponentiation function so very small changes in that number can result in dramatically higher rates of overall infection we're talking right now about getting some real experts on the platform here real vision to talk about the actual mechanics of how coronaviruses work you know on a slightly lighter note Rao you were talking about the the way we calculate our GDP numbers here in the US and you know Roger and I were chuckling about this the Atlanta nowcast number that you were referring to is down - 52.8% I mean I just really enjoy the comical precision of these numbers and you know not earlier they are they are reported on and annualized rate quarterly they also seasonally adjusted so it's SAA are these numbers are so complicated so hard to follow a simple year-over-year basis so much easier to calculate absolutely you know round talking of numbers the the exact numbers we had today is so the US economy added 2.5 million new jobs that's the most in a single month since basically the end of the world war two era the unemployment rate is down to 13.3% that's the u3 number and I think that the boost is coming from the fact that this was this was so far above or you know a below consensus which was 19.8% and the range was 17.5 to 20% so beat the range well I mean extraordinary and the problem is is it's all meaningless so we can try and make some assessment of probabilities out of it the truth is nobody has a clue the only people who really have a clue other people have been following the trend and have remained in the trade they have a clue because they've been getting it right but nobody actually knows what the economy's going to do you know as I've talked about on the daily briefing almost every week is I look at the high-frequency trading the high-frequency data the alternative data sets out of China and other countries I mean there's a marginal recovery but most retail still then 20% in many of these economy columns that open I mean a few weeks ago and was lauding the big rise in German restaurants when it's gone back down to negative 25 or negative 30% so we're not seeing anything really that says that the resumption of cash flows to the global economy are back we just don't see it yeah look the reality is businesses do not reopen the real economy does not reopen on a dime this is something that is very much a work in progress it takes time it scales up and that's the way that you eventually get back to earnings and it's not something that's going to be turned on but flip the switch no exactly right and you know we also don't know how much stimulus is having effect and in what way you know as we've talked about some of the PPP stuffs going into the markets we've seen the massive rise in brokerage accounts that got opened over the period because people were bored at home and started punting you know is that a good thing or a bad thing who knows but we don't really know yet how this stimulus is gonna play out and what happens to the structural unemployed how large that group is what that does to GDP we just don't know so many answers right and you know it's it's a very I think what struck every one struggling with is with so little answers it's very difficult to make an informed bet yeah the one thing that we know for certain about the fiscal stimulus is that it is temporary yes globally yes everywhere so you know on Monday I think everyone was saying into with Gerald Minich who's one of my favorite strategist and economists based out of Australia but he's a global strategist economist and you know Australia it rolls off the UK it rolls off Europe it rolls off and it they're all over the summer at various points and by September they've done it it's all gone so unless we're gonna go and do another two or three trillion in September you know it becomes quite difficult for to do it in Europe where I'm particularly concerned is we've had this European bond issuance the mutualization of 600 billion great now what six hundred billion means it's about 90 billion or something for Italy I mean they need trillions if they need to sort out their banking system that's Italy and Spain and maybe France and probably Germany and then there's Greece I mean the whole lot me bunny so that the number is in the trillions multiple trillions five six seven trillion to actually create solvency within that system again what a pity the Dutch won't allow that to happen who's gonna mutual eyes it those numbers dwarf the small economies that are saying no to the to the expansion of the mutualization so I worry that the European situation is one and done for now and as I said before the real issue in Europe is not when the euro is trading it at 112 113 the real issue in Europe is when the euro is trading at 80 cents then only then will people make a decision that actually is a real meaningful long-term structural change yeah even if the fuga frugal four becomes the frugal three with Germany needing to somehow recapitalize their banking system it's still a significant political battle you know I was also struck by when you said one-and-done so even if we go back to the well even if it's two and done or three undone its temporary it is not permanent and and it is so far very least far below the levels needed yeah and just again people need to understand that this is just helping the governments now with some of the debts that they just added but if they have to extend stimulus there's more trillions to come and that all ends up in the ECB balance sheet and as I've said in the past the Seebeck the euro is much less liquid than the dollar so for the equal amount of euros versus dollars issued by central banks the euro has a larger impact so I'm still remain negative the euro maybe I'm a complete idiot maybe this is the total sea change that everybody's been looking for and this was the Draghi moment I don't say it but they're so low I've been I've had egg on my face in the past you know I don't mind that you know there's still so much more to do though if you think about debt mutualization union of the banking system unified fiscal Authority the whole panoply of things that the eurozone would need to put to place to truly have the United States of Europe is a multi-decade project perhaps yes but the markets will will and have reacted to change in the margin right it's the marginal change not the not the fete accompli not the final version that makes the difference so the market is saying ok there is a probability here that we've actually gone to a new level and a new understanding of where Europe may head and therefore we need to reprice that so we price the Europe so if you think of the euro price in a band between Greece and Italy and Germany at the top it trades within the band so so it's what it's done it said well we've shifted up the bottom a bit closer to Germany therefore the euro should go up a bit and that's basically assumption is it right or wrong very early days yeah and with all that said euro dollar are trading now at about 113 yeah yes sir and really it's been in that sloppy range don't forget was here a month ago it's just been a very white sloppy range and one of my theories behind that and I was speaking to a friend of mine who's who's a real vision subscriber based out in Dominican Republic big family office there and you know in an economy like that which has a free-floating currency they have a tremendous need for dollars there's no tourists industry that is virtually no export industry nobody's got dollars and he said well listen nobody's been paying bills on their foreign remittance of foreign payments but as the economies reopen they start with the same issues which is suddenly the dollars all come back and Gerald Manette raised the same point about Australia we were talking about why is the Aussie dollar being so strong right it's been a standout and he's like most pretty simple really they sold a bunch of iron ore to up to Australia and they've run the largest current account surplus in the history of Australia roughly you know or something of that magnitude and because there's no other flows so little speculative capital so little trade flows that that massively distorts the currency and I'm like oh yeah obviously it's just we're not in a full market yet you know we you look at the stock market you kind of think everything is normal but you know when we talk to you you're still stuck in your apartment in New York I'm still stuck in on a small island where I can't get off and nobody can come on to it half the world is still entirely shut down so the payments of dollars around the world the velocity of those dollars is close to zero still but we forget it because there's bloody narrative and you don't see it when you're on Twitter and stuff you just kind of think everybody's rushing around back at works is not the case totally not the case and and there's sometimes the charts are falsely soothing I just clicked on the five-year chart in the Euro five years ago today we were basically where we are right now on US equity markets looking at my spreadsheet here so we've retraced eighty three point three six percent to that to the high of 33 93 on 19 feb 19 it's surreal and again we need to and my greens always made a good point about this we need to distend Brent Johnson's been good at this as well is we need to distance ourselves from thinking that the stock market is a macro variable yeah it not it's a flow variable and a behavioral variable more than anything else the macro components is much smaller and it usually express itself in the in the year-on-year rate of change so for that you just need to stop thinking of it as the signal you know the economic signal is I think I've proven to everybody is the bond market yeah it always is nobody believes it particularly the equity traders so I used the bond mark in the bond markets today said okay maybe grows a little bit better than we fill up that's it that's all it's done the rest of it's been a total flat line as its waited to assess much like I have done and today it's just gone hmm maybe maybe still be stronger let's see yeah you know round to your point about still being locked in my apartment I am I called the eyeglass store which has been closed for about a month now I'm trying to get my prescription renewed and I got them on the phone and I said great you've reopened this is one of the few types of businesses here in New York City that can reopen and the lady said well you know last week we were open a couple of days a few hours here and there this week a couple of days few hours and I said great but next week well you know we'll see how it goes that's the way real business is operated right and this is a very large eyeglass chain here in New York City you know the reality is it's a slow process we talked about I talked with this woman about what I need to do to get my prescription checked well you stand outside and someone comes to get you they make sure you're wearing a mask and gloves and then you come in and we sterilize the place I mean maybe this is an extreme example because of the level of close contact needed to get your eyes checked but it's a metaphor for what the process of reopening looks like yes exactly right it's just it it is a different world but we stir is two worlds out there as well which is really crucial in this is there is the physical world that has taken a massive hit the largest hit outside of wartime probably you know and then there is the virtual world that is absolutely accelerated if we look at the success of real vision over this period or the success of Amazon or Shopify I was speaking on a blacklist rubbishing blacklist call with 7/8 Singh just now who is an old friend and is super plugged in the tech world we were just talking about that it's moved towards SAS and the the low debt massive margin massive acceleration of the virtual world the digital world the cloud world all of that Stan Druckenmiller talks about it as well so there is a real story of a secular shift that's accelerating within this so you can't be bearish from everything yes sure Amazon might get regulated and Google might get regulated there's a bunch of other things out there we've got an election the way but there's a real meaningful trend which is the world of GE is finished and the world of Amazon has only just started whatever format it takes maybe it gets separated from the cloud but that whole world of digitalization even video you know videos basically taken over the world it's completely trumped all other forms of human communication now you know even most of us are starting to use video you know FaceTime video messages with friends and stuff like that when we were we used to do that we're now doing this more often just taking over everything and it's become the new normal I mean we don't even miss being in the office really sure we all get a bit cooped up but generally speaking we all have a good chat we have a good social interaction we have no issues in now socializing with each other seeing each other in video but six months ago it's like oh you know we should get together and have a proper meeting in our flight to New York it's the world has changed it's changed hugely absolutely absolutely around it so well said you know video may be the ultimate metaphor for what's happened during this crisis in terms of the shift in the patterns of consumption you know I was just looking at the zoom numbers revenue from prior quarter for zoom the company that's probably one of the best metaphors for what's happening here up 170 percent on the prior quarter and net income double so the rate of a profit growth actually outstripped the rate of revenue increase why because it's a company that once you can scale it it scales massively and that is what makes technology such proposition end video in this particular case especially yeah exactly right but you know that's prevalent across that whole software industry so you know yes I mean the prices being paid right now a ludicrous so again it's not a it's not a justification for market valleys or the market going up but I'm always interested in secular ships it just feels like you know the old if you think of G is a great business to understand because it's bricks and mortar and factories machineries massive sales forces and all the stuff you don't want and what comes with that is massive amounts of debt right it's expensive to do stuff like that and then you have these assets so you you borrow against them so they get more indebted and become sluggish and crappy and then suddenly a start-up comes into a space and telemedicine comes you know suddenly you don't need a you don't need certain diagnostic machines in the place you're in because you can have the diagnosis done elsewhere and you know things change so fast in the software world but in the physical world of old industry it's just not as fast they just can't catch up yeah yeah and to talk about the regulatory point that that you made in the potential risk of some of these companies getting broken up you know one of the things that we talk about when we look at durable realignments and real estate trends you often mention you know nobody wants these 5,000 square foot houses out in western new jersey that's actually where i grew up and the big high-tech company of the time when i was a kid in the 80s and 90s was AT&T now AT&T of course ran into some regulatory trouble monopoly claims which is what some of the you know the people who are really thinking about this deeply think may happen to Microsoft Amazon whoever pick pick your pick your poison in terms of Big Five SNP companies the reality is if you held AT&T stock in 1984 when the divestiture agreement was was was brokered and those stocks got spent spun out you did absolutely brilliantly over the five 10 and 20 years to come if only I could buy AT&T stock in 1983 and now 18 bought an extraordinarily expensive media company with record amounts of debt it is now the most indebted corporate entity on earth with something like a hundred and sixty seven billion dollars of debt the check that the massive the monthly chartered it looks horrific when I look at the really long term chart it looks like shorts bouncing from here but it's bouncing off that trendline if it ever breaks that trend line AT&T is gonna have and have again from here and I see that in the chance of GE and all of these big triple B old economy names there just knows something is deeply wrong there and that I don't think that's going away I don't think that can be solved I don't know AT&T is never gonna grow its way out of its debt yeah sell another two billion telephones unless it has a monopoly on 5g and can charge supernormal profits it's just there's no way which is why I bought the media company problem is is the advertising revenues have collapsed so all of the cash flow from the media companies have collapsed too so I you know it's a mess doesn't it remind you a little bit of one Jerry eleven over at Time Warner bought by AOL from Steve Case at the very top of the markets of course it does but although today doesn't seem like it's the top of the market - it looks like we're going to new all-time high so maybe these are all false signals who knows yeah but what is interesting when you mention AT&T and the old world companies that's that the the beauty of the economy this is what makes it so dynamic is this Schumpeterian creative destruction what was once on the vanguard is now a laggard yes sometimes it's sad - and again at the conversation was certainly it was just a great call who's such a smart guy is the restaurant industry what's happened like everywhere over kovat the people who apply enormous amounts of data and technology which is a something that built I talked about as well the winners have been the people who've applied the most technology so their businesses have managed to scale because they've understood customer behavior yeah so the large restaurant chains have basically cleaned up and they're all your new rate of change of sales well above you know they're kind of Kord sales or all of the small restaurants that we actually love where we have that social interaction the human side of of eating and sharing food and sharing conversation and wine decimated yeah and they can't apply technology and they can't apply things that help them with them well they could but they just don't do it well enough so it's sad ya know exactly exactly exactly what I was going to say on a human level it's tragic I don't live in a world I don't want to live in a world of just mega brands and monopolies and oligopolies because choice is what makes life so interesting it makes you and I be able to have different experiences every day and that creates conversation and debt and richness but if we all eat at McDonald's every day and go to Chipotle at lunchtime and then we go to chicka Phil for dinner what life is that it's kind of like this with covert life after a while every day is the same yes and it misses even though we're on video and we're doing all the things the other part of your life loses that textual richness that makes life life and that's what people get it pissed off being in this confinement and I just worry about what does an economy look like which is it's bit dystopian when it's just mega brands when the only place to shop is Amazon well I'll give you a little ray of light here from New York City something that I've seen especially in the restaurant industry I'm a New York bachelor I don't really cook so this is something that I would classify myself as an expert in ordering in food something I do all the time you're right most of the mom-and-pop shops it's really tragic because some of these are family businesses family pubs family restaurants that have been in operation for decades it's really hard to see how this is something that isn't just devastating to them and of course the mega brands have thrived as you pointed out but there's also seems to be this middle zone where there are these little New York City mini chain restaurants they have you know five seven three sometimes restaurants and they've they've done a very good job of figuring out what the sort of rising trends are that Millennials are looking for in food they want things that they can order on their phones they want things that are healthy they want food that's grilled they want lots of vegetables they want some meats sorry Ashley you try me Oh millennia millennial I'd like to call myself as any around I'm on that I'm on the cusp sharing some millennial characteristics well technically having a millennial birthday but take me having a Gen X birthday I should say see I can't even get it straight it's so hard for me to get it out but but you know it's interesting because one of the things that software-as-a-service has allowed these companies to do is if you can build that mini chain of say three restaurants or five restaurants you can then partner with postman's and you can kind of jump on their cloud infrastructure and it's totally seamless all you need to do is be able to integrate on the front end for you they do all the backend so it does sort of suggest that we're not just going to live in a world where we're all eating you know McDonald's hamburgers and you know you raise the key point that the the ship Batarian trace of the structures what would have done it'll be a bunch of low margin businesses that might have been your local favorite but just really didn't do well we've already seen there is a huge movement towards entrepreneurism people opening new restaurants and local food stores and all of that great stuff that we're seeing that that is making life in the big cities kind of nice again right that probably comes to the fore more but it's gonna take a while you know people need to regroup get some capital back together get people back in but what we'll do is we'll probably freshen up everything I never forget is before I was in Grand came but people talk about it hurricane iron was a category 5 hurricane that went across Graham came and put several days it went underwater so it wasn't on the satellite imagery it was that bad a hurricane it destroyed 60 percent of all the buildings huge but what came back out of the Grand Cayman was now incredible hotels restaurants better quality houses his beautiful developments and all of this stuff and that was the creative destruction out when the chintzy seventies and eighties Caribbean in came the modern Caribbean and the leading nation in the whole region and that came out of Hurricane Ivan so you know out of these things come incredible opportunities like me who's one of the cofounders religion I was just chatting to him he was just on his way to Ibiza he had to lie to get on the boat he said he was going for a job interview because you're not allowed to travel but he was going there and he's like it's decimated none of the nightclubs are opening the tourism industry is not gonna really open and he said all half of these shops the little Ibiza shops all shut down and I said to him surely that's a massive opportunity because millions of people will go back to a beat the next year he's like yeah what a hell of an investment opportunity if you get the chance and I've always said he who has cash in a recession is king because you can do things that other people come yeah yeah and if you haven't already seen it yet the built-i interview that you did is really terrific a really big picture thinker he's a fascinating guy with an amazing story it's a great narrative and the thing that I enjoy most about it is sometimes the the the really big picture thinkers can get a little bit disjointed from what's actually happening on the ground goat I as a guy who was who was a chip engineer so grounded in reality and literally blew me away one of the nicest people you could meet he starts super humble in in how he approaches things and then completely blows you away with his unbelievable knowledge and you know we joked about having created the idea of an electro electro currency and his that this is just one of the best things I think I stole that from him and he actually invented it but I just ran railroaded it ruin said well we just come up with this idea together but his idea was was geniuses is if you understand the terminology of petrodollar petrodollar is two things two people one is the dollars that people like Saudi Arabia get and that Petra dollar economy sloshes into the global system but really after Nixon a band of the gold standard that whole petrol dollar idea was that the oil the revenues from oil was the new dollar economy and it didn't need to be pegged to gold because the key thing was oil so there was a different way of looking at it and the US wanted so those dollars from the oil-producing nations and it became this lovely symbiotic relationship where they would buy US Treasuries and the world that we kind of know today and he said well that's potentially now changed because oil is not the key thing that we use for the world to go round anymore of course it's still incredibly important but the most important commodity of all is the electron hmm and whether that's electricity or whether it's computing power but the point being is that if you've given the choice between electricity or oil and I understand that one is made from the other potentially most people would take electricity yeah so therefore electricity and computing and and stored productivity so he said well if you think of the dollar as the stored productivity in oil then this is now becoming as central banks move to these digital currencies and bitcoin everything else they're stored productivity of electricity which is fascinating because you know Bitcoin itself part of the price derivation comes from the cost of mining which has the electricity same as the cost of oil does same as the cost of gold but the point being is saying well that electricity that store productivity of what you can do with it in bitcoins case you can store things on it the trusted relationship the payment mechanisms everything else or if it's computing power all has more value in this world it's just a brilliant thinker bill he's just amazing that's one of my favorite interviews that I've done a long time and I'd met him once briefly so we got introduced by a friend from the Cayman Islands she's got to talk to this guy and I mean the comments section were like 10 out of 10 10 out of 10 this is unbelievable yeah I had really lit up the comments board yeah definitely you know and on the other side of the coin um I don't have you had a chance to see the Steve Clapham interview yet I think it's it's fascinating and it's a great counterpoint to the bill tie piece because Steve Clapham is a guy who's been involved in the hedge fund world and his background is in Firenze accounting and it's so fascinating it was so cool about real business you have these really big picture thinkers and then you have a Steve Clapham who basically says okay guys time out her earnings revenue balance sheet quality let's take a look at these things and he breaks down what he thinks is going to happen in in the rest of 2021 from an earnings perspective and really comes us brings us really back down to earth on what his view is so it's a great counterpoint to the built I interview both terrific interviews and in very different ways yeah that's one of my love's about real vision is you turn on every day I check every morning I get up about I'm up about 5:00 5:30 first thing I do is what is the interview today I purposely don't know want to know and I go oh wow okay who's this what's this about and you know it's that it's the breath that you get over the course of a few months that it's just there's nothing like it and I'm just speaking as a user you know it's just it's fantastic to get that kind of breadth of knowledge about stuff you'd never know anything about yeah we've both drunk the kool-aid yeah we have Wow we've run long once again any final thoughts just if you're gonna go in protest and I said this to the staff here a real vision is if you're gonna go protest just take some precautions go to the larger demonstrations where there are there is more security don't break any curfews because things are a little bit dicey out there and just think about wearing a mask because hey what's the downside yeah yeah and I would add if you're going to do it do it closer to 10:00 in the morning then 10:00 at night yeah exactly right people have been here in New York City for the most part very well behaved during the day people are out expressing themselves being voluble about their passion for their feelings but it's it's been much safer during the day yeah yeah anyway other than that all have a great weekend and let's see what this market doesn't actually is probably another 20 percent you know who knows that's what makes it fun stay safe everyone thanks for joining us.