Latest data released by INSEE - 21 January 2021

Via Bloomberg The FTSE 350 banks index has a slight lead over its euro-area controlled neighbours so far this month. The relief of Brexit being behind for the UK has been and should remain a general tail wind for the UK. Also British lenders have become relatively cheaper to the Eurp Stoxx index - see chart

The positive tones reverberate to Europe in early trades The better risk mood is continuing to keep some light pressure on the dollar so far today. EUR/USD continues to test its 200-hour moving average @ 1.2134 with AUD/USD hovering around 0.7770 for the time being while NZD/USD is keeping just above 0.7200.

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts GBP/USD is back up to test 1.3700 again after a failed attempt to hold a break above the key level yesterday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD has recovered from a drop below 1.2100 to move back above that to test key near-term levels once again.

A solid day for Asian equities in general once again The Nikkei bounces back today, following the better mood in Wall Street where we saw record closes for the major indices in the US. That is being followed up with gains in futures today as well with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq futures up

Forex news for Asian trading on January 21, 2021 A look at other markets outside forex shows: - Spot gold is down $0.43 or -0.02% at $1871.41. - Spot silver is trading up $0.05 or 0.20% at $25.89 The Asian session's saw risk on flows after the sharp rise in US stocks yesterday, and follow through buying in the Asia/Pacific markets today. 

No stopping the exuberance in the stock market so far this week After returning from the long weekend, Wall Street has taken charge and is leading the risk party over the past few days with major indices closing at record highs as Biden gets sworn in as the 46th US president yesterday.

ECB meets today but don't expect fireworks to follow The dollar is keeping slightly weaker again today as yields continue to take a breather amid the pause in the reflation narrative. Equities continue to surge higher, continuing its good form after the long weekend with the market cheering on Biden's inauguration.

Total deaths up to 405,820

German Covid statistics from Robert Koch Institute Meanwhile deaths increased by 1013 on the day, bringing the total number of deaths in the country to 49,783.

Some key levels in play Below are a list of the option expires for the NY cut. EURUSD.  Current price 1.2109 USDJPY.  Current price 103.63

Some key levels in play Below are a list of the option expires for the NY cut. EURUSD.  Current price 1.2109 USDJPY.  Current price 103.63

Australia employment statistics for December 2020 - Employment change - Unemployment rate - Full-time employment  - Part-time employment - Participation rate The AUDUSD  was trading at 0.7757. 

Australia employment statistics for December 2020 - Employment change 50 K vs. 50 K estimate - Unemployment rate 6.6% vs. 6.7% estimate. Down from 6.8% last month

Takes over from Trump Administrations Kylie McEnaney - Will bring back truth, transparency to briefing room - that she will participate in WHO meeting tomorrow

Adidas is a German multinational corporation designing and manufacturing shoes, clothing and accessories. Created in 1934 by Adolf Dassler and headqua

Indonesia’s central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI), maintained its 7-day reverse repo rate at 3.75% at its January monetary policy meeting held on Thursda

The AUD/USD pair trimmed a part of its intraday gains and was last seen trading just above mid-0.7700s during the early European session. The pair bui

Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate in line with forecasts (3.75%) in January

GBP/USD is holding the higher ground while looking to extend the advance above the 1.3700 level. The cable reached multi-year highs at 1.3719 on US Pr

The USD/JPY pair extended its steady intraday decline and dropped to fresh two-week lows, around the 103.30 region in the last hour, albeit quickly re

Denmark Consumer Confidence down to -4.1 in January from previous -3.8

In light of flash data from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest and volume went down by around 4.6K contracts and by around 212.9

The government and the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) corporate funding support is exerting its effects, the central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at the post-

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, NZD/USD is now seen navigating within the 0.7110-0.7240 range in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “

USD/CAD is consolidating Wednesday’s sell-off ahead of the European open, as the bears gather pace for the next push lower. At the time of writing, th

CME Group’s preliminary readings for crude oil futures markets noted traders increased their open interest positions by around 34.8K contracts on Wedn

Cable could see its upside renewed on a breakout of the 1.3710 level in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view

Open interest in gold futures markets rose by nearly 8K contracts on Wednesday following two consecutive daily pullbacks according to flash figures fr

FX Strategists at UOB Group forecast further decline in EUR/USD while below 1.2080. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘upward mo

Bitcoin, Nikkei 225 Index Hit All-Time Highs; U.S. Dollar Weakens Again; EUR/USD Rejects 1.2000.

FX traders still have high hopes that a Brexit deal can be reached in the very near term.

China's Federation of Logistics and Purchasing recently reported that the official non-manufacturing PMI for November stood at 56.4, signaling an expansion of the non-manufacturing sector.

Gold Hits 4-Month Low; U.S. Dollar Weaker Across the Board; Stocks Dip During Asian Session.

A joint venture between Delta Air Lines and Alitalia will soon see the operation for flights between the United States and Italy that won't require travelers to quarantine upon arrival at their destination.

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said that the United Kingdom will not join a post-Brexit trade deal at any cost.

Stocks Higher During Asian Session; Nikkei 225 Up to New All-Time High; WTI Crude Oil Above $45; Dull FOMC.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX: .DJI), a major U.S. equity index representing thirty of the largest U.S. companies, closed yesterday at 30,046.24 – an all-time record high closing price and the first ever close above the psychologically important 30,000 level.

Sterling moved lower against the euro as Forex traders hold their collective breath for clarity on this week's Brexit negotiations.

The US stock markets hit historical highs yesterday after President-elect Joe Biden began choosing the members of his future cabinet and after President Donald Trump's decision to initiate the transition process.

Dow Jones Index Closes Above 30,000; S&P 500, Nikkei 225 Close at All-Time Highs.

An improvement in risk sentiment helped push the pound sterling toward the 2-month peak it had struck on Monday.

The General Services Administration informed President-elect Joe Biden that he can begin the formal transition process.

Trump Instructs Formal Biden Transition; U.S. Dollar Down, Risk Up; WTI Crude Oil Bid.

The pound sterling was higher against its major rivals during London trade on Monday, after the announcement of positive news regarding a vaccine to combat the spread of COVID-19.

AUD - Australian DollarThe Australian dollar advanced through trade on Wednesday extending Tuesday’s uptick beyond 0.77 toward 0.7750. Momentum behind the week's early risk on shift gathered pace as expectations of increased US fiscal stimulus accompanied the inauguration of the 46th President of the United States. While the Biden administration has promised a sweeping revocation of Trump policies on day one, policies that ordinarily may not be considered market friendly, investors seem unperturbed, instead buoyed by the promise of additional government spending designed to guide the world's largest economy through the pandemic and promote a H2 recovery. Having touched intraday highs at 0.7760 the AUD again struggled to extend toward and through 0.78. While commodity currencies lead gains a wrinkle potentially putting medium term AUD upside at risk appears to be emerging. Reports of an increased number of community transmitted COVID-19 cases in China could weigh on ongoing AUD upside. With selected regions imposing strict lockdown measures, an uncontained spread within China could derail the economic recovery driving the global rebound. Our attentions today turn to domestic labour market data with unemployment expected to trend toward 6.7%. While strong domestic labour performance can underpin fundamentals behind AUD strength and heighten calls for a review on QE policy, our focus remains on performance through March when Job Keeper payments are wound back and free market economics again takes over. Key MoversThe Canadian dollar led gains across majors through trade on Wednesday following the Bank of Canada policy meeting. While the BoC opted to maintain its current policy setting, commentary from governor Macklem promising to support the economy through the pandemic and uphold the current cash rate until the” economic slack is absorbed” helped bolster demand for the loonie. The US dollar retreated in the face of a risk on backdrop giving up gains across the board, while the euro underperformed ahead of today’s ECB policy meeting. We expect the ECB will preserve the status quo, however any signal from ECB president Lagarde the bank is concerned by lackluster growth outlook could spark expectations for extended QE moving through H1. With German, French, Euro area and US PMI data due Friday we are keenly attuned to any divergence in economic performance. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.7660 - 0.7820 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6290 - 0.6430 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.7520 - 1.7780 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0750 - 1.0850 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.9730 - 0.9830 ▼

AUD - Australian DollarThe Australian dollar advanced through trade on Wednesday extending Tuesday’s uptick beyond 0.77 toward 0.7750. Momentum behind the week's early risk on shift gathered pace as expectations of increased US fiscal stimulus accompanied the inauguration of the 46th President of the United States. While the Biden administration has promised a sweeping revocation of Trump policies on day one; policies that ordinarily may not be considered market friendly, investors seem unperturbed, instead buoyed by the promise of additional government spending designed to guide the world's largest economy through the pandemic and promote a H2 recovery. Having touched intraday highs at 0.7760 the AUD again struggled to extend toward and through 0.78. While commodity currencies lead gains, a wrinkle potentially putting medium term AUD upside at risk appears to be emerging. Reports of an increased number of community transmitted COVID-19 cases in China could weigh on ongoing AUD upside. With selected regions imposing strict lockdown measures, an uncontained spread within China could derail the economic recovery driving the global rebound. Our attentions today turn to domestic labour market data with unemployment expected to trend toward 6.7%. While strong domestic labour performance can underpin fundamentals behind AUD strength and heighten calls for a review on QE policy, our focus remains on performance through March when Job Keeper payments are wound back and free market economics again takes over. Key MoversThe Canadian dollar led gains across majors through trade on Wednesday following the Bank of Canada policy meeting. While the BoC opted to maintain its current policy setting, commentary from Governor Macklem promising to support the economy through the pandemic and uphold the current cash rate until the” economic slack is absorbed” helped bolster demand for the loonie. The US dollar retreated in the face of a risk on backdrop giving up gains across the board, while the euro underperformed ahead of today’s ECB policy meeting. We expect the ECB will preserve the status quo, however any signal from ECB President Lagarde the bank is concerned by lackluster growth outlook could spark expectations for extended QE moving through H1. With German, French, Euro area and US PMI data due Friday we are keenly attuned to any divergence in economic performance. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.7660 - 0.7820 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6290 - 0.6430 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.7520 - 1.7780 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0750 - 1.0850 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.9730 - 0.9830 ▼

AUD - Australian DollarThe Australian dollar edged higher through trade on Tuesday as investors chased a rebound in risk sentiment and uptick in commodity prices. Having tested a break below supports at 0.7680/60, the AUD pushed back through 0.77 US cents as equities and rates drove gains across risk assets. The improvement across equities began in the domestic session with the ASX and Hang Seng extending recent gains, before a correction across Europe, triggered by falling bond yields in Italy, capped AUD upside at 0.7725. As short term Covid-19 concerns continue to plague the broader risk narrative, the AUD remains range bound between 0.7640 and 0.78, with broader ranges extending between 0.75 and 0.7850.Attentions today turn to the US inauguration. Further signs of insurrection and political instability may weigh on the risk recovery. Key MoversMomentum behind the USD faltered through trade on Tuesday amid a recovery in risk assets and uptick across major currency counterparts. The dollar index retreated two tenths of a percent as investors chased equities, rates and commodities higher, recouping some of last week’s losses as risk sentiment regained some of the years early energy. Further downward pressure came following testimony from incoming treasury secretary Janet Yellen. Yellen stressed the Biden administration would not stand in the way of market-based dollar weakness, weighing on expectations fiscal stimulus may be employed to underpin the dollar. As the dollar dipped the euro bounced off 6-week lows, pushing back through 1.21 to mark intraday highs at 1.2140, while the Great British pound pushed back through 1.36 to touch 1.3635. The Japanese yen underperformed amid the risk on back drop, retreating 0.2% ahead of today’s BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and economic outlook report.Our attentions today turn to the US inauguration. Further signs of political instability may weigh on the risk recovery. With commentary from the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank all due before tomorrow’s open, monetary policy will remain in sharp focus. While we expect little change from the current policy platforms with signs growth will not rebound through H1 and a worsening short term COVID-19 outlook, we are keenly attuned to any signal suggesting further loosening in financial conditions is forthcoming. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.7640 - 0.7780 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6290 - 0.6380 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.7580 - 1.7820 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0780 - 1.0850 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9750 - 0.9850 ▲

AUD - Australian Dollar Having slipped below 0.77 US cents into the close last week the AUD struggled to arrest the downtrend through trade on Monday, tracking toward intraday lows at 0.7659. With little of note on the domestic docket to drive direction the AUD succumbed to a broader sell off across commodity currencies as a renewed souring in risk demand forced investors toward haven assets. Short term headwinds continue to outweigh medium term optimism as the pandemic worsens extending the timeline for recovery. Our attentions today remain with market sentiment as we eye supports at 0.7640 and 0.76. With the USD building off last weeks rebound and extending off 3-year lows we will be looking for any signal risk demand will improve through the week. With the US inauguration expected to prompt further uncertainty in the US and the impending impeachment possibly blocking the Senate from passing much needed stimulus a boost to risk demand may be wanting. We expect the AUD to remain largely range bound through the short-term holding between 0.75 and 0.7850. Key Movers Safe haven assets led gains across majors last night as investors shifted away from emerging markets and commodity currencies amid worsening COVID conditions and short-term headwinds. The JPY and CHF both outpaced major counterparts as concerns growing infection numbers will mean longer national lockdowns and an extended timeline to recovery. The Great British Pound drifter toward intraday lows at 1.3520 as official reports showed the highest number of fatalities for a Sunday since the Pandemic began. The impact of national lockdowns in the UK has been slow and while numbers are trending in the right direction, hospitalisations remain shockingly high as 2 Brits are hospitalized every minute with COVID 19. With lockdowns expected to remain in place until March at least the government continues to push its vaccine roll out, however with estimates a full program will not be complete until September the realities of another year of COVID 19 restrictions are beginning to weigh on investors medium term optimism. Our attentions this week remain with pandemic and the short-term risk response. We look to Biden’s inauguration on Wednesday for a peaceful transition of power, with protests expected across the country, increasing violence could add further weigh behind the recent risk off shift. On the macroeconomic front we look to European and US PMI data as key markers of recovery. A softening in German and French performance could prompt further divergence in economic activity between Europe and the US and weigh on the combined unit. We are watching supports at 1.20 for now with a break below this handle a possible signal of further Euro weakness. Expected Ranges AUD/USD: 0.7640 - 0.7790 ▼ AUD/EUR: 0.6310 - 0.6420 ▼ GBP/AUD: 1.7520 - 1.7780 ▲ AUD/NZD: 1.0730 - 1.0850 ▲ AUD/CAD: 0.9750 - 0.9850 ▼

AUD - Australian Dollar The Aussie fell back below 0.77 on Friday as global risk sentiment soured as the United states heads into a long weekend. The Aussie followed the S&P500 lower through trade, retreating from 0.7775 to 0.7680. With the Kiwi also falling, the AUD/NZD cross pushed above 1.0800, continuing its six-week rally. Looks like a quiet session ahead today with the USA observing Martin Luther King Day. The only release of note will be Q4 GDP data out of China with analysts expecting a 2.7% rise. We will also see Chinese industrial production and retail sales data which will be closely watched as indicators of both business and consumer spending. Recent weakness has pushed the two year high of 0.7820 further out of reach. Traders will want to observe sustained trading above 0.7700 before another break higher is considered. On the downside, first support is seen at 0.7640 (weekly low) with moves below this level opening the door to 0.7600. Key Movers Risk aversion is the main narrative in markets this morning as the US observes the Martin Luther King Day public holiday. Friday’s dollar strength was a biproduct of the dismal mood in markets following weaker than expected retail sales and employment data. Concerns of delays in vaccine distributions only compounded the mood further. EUR/USD fell below 1.2100 through trade with commodity linked currencies like the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar the hardest hit. The pound managed to settle below 1.3600 with Prime minister Boris Johnson announcing further travel restrictions as they try to deal with potential new strains of COVID 19. In commodities, the resurgent USD saw gold fall sharply. Oil also fell, WTI closed on Friday changing hands at USD $50 per barrel. Expected Ranges AUD/USD: 0.7640 - 0.7750 ▼ AUD/EUR: 0.6300 - 0.6415 ▼ GBP/AUD: 1.7580– 1.7700 ▲ AUD/NZD: 1.0730 - 1.0850 ▲ AUD/CAD: 0.9770 - 0.9880 ▼

AUD - Australian DollarThe Australian dollar shrugged off Wednesday’s downturn rebounding back through 0.7750 to test 0.78 US cents. With little of note on hand through the domestic session, the AUD tracked sideways bouncing between 0.7730 and 0.7760, as investors sidelined bets ahead of a Biden update on planned Fiscal Stimulus, commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a crucial US jobless claims report. The AUD rallied as markets looked to reports of part one of Bidens’ economic plan could stretch to $2 trillion. With weekly jobless claims nearing 1 million, their highest level since March, Democrat leaders continue to push the President-elect to increase stimulus spending and see the economy through the worst of the pandemic. As increased spending adds to expectations for inflation, markets looked to Jerome Powell for any insight into how the Fed plans to handle increasing price pressures. Powell reiterated that now is not the time to be talking about exiting the current monetary policy plan, affirming the Fed’s commitment to accommodative market settings and a willingness to work through transitory inflationary pressures. The promise of lower interest rates helped the AUD test another break above 0.78 touching 0.7805, before edging lower into this morning open. Our attentions this morning turn to President-elect Biden as he sets out his economic plan at 11:15am AEDST. A surprise to the upside could help fuel another uptick in US treasury yields and drive dollar strength into the weekend. Key MoversThe US dollar continued its see saw battle against major counterparts, giving up Wednesday’s gains through trade on Thursday, as markets react to an uptick in domestic jobless claims and expectations for fiscal stimulus. 965,000 Americans filled for state benefits last week, the biggest weekly jobless claim since March and a stark reminder COVID-19’s impacts stretches well beyond the healthcare system. Sterling broke through resistance at 1.3670 to test a break above 1.37, while the euro recouped early losses and jumped back above 1.2150. Despite the correction, the USD did find some support in widening Treasury yields and inflation expectations. Hopes for an increase in Fiscal support have heightened concerns inflationary pressures will run through the Fed 2% target in the latter half of the year, weighing on monetary policy and prompting some analysts to price in a tightening in policy conditions. As markets grapple with short term headwinds and medium term expectations for an economic rebound, our attentions turn to President-elect Joe Biden and part one of his economic plan for a greater insight into how quickly the American economy might bounce out of the political and pandemic driven recession. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.7690 - 0.7830 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6290 - 0.6430 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.7480 - 1.7720 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0720 - 1.0810 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9790 - 0.9880 ▲

AUD - Australian DollarThe Australian dollar retreated through trade on Wednesday, drifting below 0.7750 as bond yields and equities fell and hopes for additional US fiscal stimulus drove US dollar gains. Having touched intraday highs at 0.7780, markets largely ignored a strong uptick in job vacancies despite the run-on implications for a sharp correction in unemployment rates and upward inflation expectations. Instead, markets looked to a fall in oil prices and commentary from Fed officials suggesting loose monetary policy will be tapered as the Fed moves nearer to its economic goals. The new year upturn has clearly stalled now, and analysts appear torn between extending the rally beyond resistance at 0.7780/0.7820 and signs of a shift in underlying US dollar weakness. A move away from inflationary concerns has helped the world's base currency lift off 3-year lows, prompting a halt in the recent AUD rally. While underlying domestic fundamentals continue to favour the Australian dollar, our attentions turn today to US unemployment claims and commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as key markers for monetary policy and economic performance. With the US recording its highest daily coronavirus deaths on record yesterday and vaccine roll outs behind schedule, any short term recovery is unlikely adding a possible floor below the AUD. Key MoversThe US dollar advanced through trade on Wednesday, despite 10-year US Treasury yields falling 4 basis points and the Fed dismissing inflationary concerns. The dollar advanced across the board, bucking last week's trend and moving against treasury yield price action, instead buoyed by a shift in risk demand and a fall in equities, coupled with the promise of increased fiscal stimulus relief. With Democrats now holding an effective majority in both houses of government, it is expected an increase in income support from $600 to $2,000 a week will quickly pass through Congress. President-Elect Joe Biden is tapped to deliver an outline of his COVID-19 relief plan today, with expectations the Democrats will look to increase the current program significantly. A substantial stimulus platform could help add further upside support for the USD through the worst of the pandemic and prompt a shift in the medium-term outlook as a cushioned recession should run into a quicker recovery post pandemic. That said, as sentiment continues to drive demand, a surge in appetite for risk led by equities could benefit commodity currencies and emerging markets. With price action faltering we are keenly watching direction through the next 24-48 hours as a possible marker of changes in the underlying narrative. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.7670 - 0.7780 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6290 - 0.6390 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.7480 - 1.7720 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0680 - 1.0820 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9790 - 0.9920 ▼