Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

May 18, 2024 | 02:42 am

EUR/USD’s rally from 1.0601 resumed last week and further to 1.0894 before retreating. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0810 resistance turned support holds. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rise to 1.0980 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that whole fall from 1.1138 has […] The post EUR/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

May 18, 2024 | 02:36 am

USD/JPY fell sharply after edging higher to 156.78 but recovered again after hitting 153.59. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg, to retest 160.20 high. On the downside, below […] The post USD/JPY Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

May 18, 2024 | 02:33 am

GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2298 resumed by breaking through 1.2633 last week. Initial bias is now on the upside this week. Firm break of 1.2708 resistance will target 100% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2633 from 1.2445 at 1.2780. On the downside, below 1.2642 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But further rise will now […] The post GBP/USD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

May 18, 2024 | 02:26 am

USD/CHF rebounded strongly after edging lower to 0.8987 last week, but upside is capped below 0.9101 resistance. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.9101 will argue that corrective fall from 0.9223 has completed with three waves down to 0.8987 already. Further rise should then be seen to retest […] The post USD/CHF Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Weekly Report

May 18, 2024 | 02:21 am

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6361 resumed last week but retreated after hitting 0.6713. Initial bias remains neutral for some consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 0.6578 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves down to 0.6361 already. Above 0.6713 will target 0.6870 resistance next. In the bigger […] The post AUD/USD Weekly Report appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

May 18, 2024 | 02:17 am

USD/CAD edged lower to 1.3589 last week but recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor as long as 1.3689 resistance holds. Break of 1.3589 will resume whole fall from 1.3845 and target 100% projection of 1.3845 to 1.3608 from 1.3761 at 1.3524. Also, sustained trading below 55 D EMA […] The post USD/CAD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

May 18, 2024 | 02:03 am

GBP/JPY’s rebound from 191.34 continued last week despite interim retreat. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 200.53 resistance. On the downside, break of 195.02 support will argue that corrective pattern from 200.53 has started the third leg already, and bring deeper fall to 191.34 support. In the bigger picture, a medium term […] The post GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

May 18, 2024 | 01:59 am

EUR/JPY retreated after rising further to 169.38 last week but then recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rise is expected. Break of 169.38 will resume the rally from 164.01, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58, towards this 171.58. On the downside, break of 167.31 should turn bias […] The post EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

May 18, 2024 | 01:47 am

EUR/GBP’s fall last week argues that rebound from 0.8529 has completed at 0.8619 already. Initial bias remain the downside this week for 0.8529 support first. Decisive break there will that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.8491/7 support one. On the upside, above 0.8579 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn […] The post EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

May 18, 2024 | 01:39 am

EUR/AUD stayed in sideway trading above 1.6216 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further decline is expected. Break of 1.6216 will resume the fall from 1.6742, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Next target will be 1.6127 support, or further to 100% projection […] The post EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

May 18, 2024 | 01:29 am

EUR/CHF’s rally from 0.9252 resumed by breaking through 0.9847 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.9304 to 0.9847 from 0.9563 at 0.9899. Decisive break there could prompt upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.0106, which is slightly above 1.0095 key structural resistance. On the downside, below […] The post EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USDCHF bounces off the 200 hour MA and trades higher

May 17, 2024 | 12:21 pm

The USDCHF moved lower with the USD selling earlier today, and in the process moved down to test the 200 hour moving average at 0.90653. Support buyers leaned against the level and pushed the price back higher. The pair is trading between the 100/200 bar MAs on the topside at 0.9091 (and a swing area up to 0.90978), and the 200 hour MA below.Absent any big move into the close, that is where the week will close out. Next week, the MAs above and below will be the support and resistance. A break of either target with momentum would either increase the bullish bias or bearish bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USD is moving lower. How has the technicals helped in that decline?

May 17, 2024 | 08:30 am

The USD has reversed back to the downside versus the major currencies. In this updated technical look, I outline how the technicals have helped to reverse the markets, and in some cases reverse the gains turning the buys back to the downside for the greenback, and for others, move to the target support/resistance.In this video, I take a detailed view of the:EURUSD. :017GBPUSD. 1:47USDJPY 2:39USDCHF 3:46 AUDUSD. 4:59 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Analysis of GBP/USD pair on May 17th. The pound heads into the weekend with a sense of accomplishment

May 17, 2024 | 08:22 am

The wave structure of the GBP/USD pair remains quite complex. A successful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level in April indicated the market's readiness to form a downward wave 3 or C. If this wave continues to develop, the wave pattern will become much simpler, eliminating the threat of a more complicated wave structure. However, the pair has remained the same in recent weeks, which raises doubts about the market's readiness for selling. The downward wave 3 or C could be extended, just like all the previous waves of the current still-descending trend segment.In the current situation, my readers can still expect the formation of wave 3 or C, with targets located below the low of wave 1 or A, at the 1.2035 mark. Therefore, the pound should decrease by at least 600–700 basis points from the current levels. Such a decline would make wave 3 or C relatively small, so I expect a much larger drop in quotes. It may take a long time to form wave 3 or C. Wave 2 or B took five months, and that was just a corrective wave. Building an impulse wave could take even more time.The pound doesn't waste time, even on Friday.The GBP/USD rate increased by another 20 basis points on Friday; the day isn't over yet. The US session has just begun, and the most interesting movements occur. Therefore, we expect the pound to gain more value today. What are the reasons for this? It's impossible to answer this question in one sentence.For several weeks, I've been saying that the demand for the British pound is growing much stronger than the news background suggests. For example, what news today could have caused the pound to rise again? In the UK – nothing, in the US – nothing. Even considering the speeches of Catherine Mann and Christopher Waller, it's still impossible to explain the new strengthening of the pound. Catherine Mann spoke in the morning, and Christopher Waller spoke just an hour ago. The pound started rising right with the opening of the US session. Therefore, American market participants waited for the opening to continue buying, and the news background has nothing to do with it. And even if Ms. Mann said something like "we are not ready to lower the rate yet," why would these words cause the pound to rise when, at the same time, the Fed is also not ready to lower the rate? Moreover, the FOMC will "not be ready to lower the rate" for much longer.General ConclusionsThe GBP/USD pair's wave pattern still suggests a decline. I am still considering selling the pair with targets below the 1.2039 mark, as wave 3 or C has not yet been canceled. A successful attempt to break the 1.2625 mark, which equates to 38.2% on the Fibonacci scale, from above will indicate the possible completion of the internal corrective wave within 3 or C, which currently looks like a classic three-wave pattern.On a larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more telling. The descending corrective segment of the trend continues to form, and its second wave has been extended – at 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break this mark could lead to the beginning of wave 3 or C, but a corrective wave is currently forming.Key Principles of My Analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.If you are unsure of what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 17th (US session)

May 17, 2024 | 08:14 am

Analysis of trades and tips for trading the Japanese yenThe test of the 155.94 price level occurred when the MACD had moved significantly up from the zero mark, limiting the pair's further upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar, and I was right. The upward movement did not occur, and it is unlikely to happen in the second half of the day, as there are no other significant US statistics apart from the leading indicators index. It is better to stick to trading within the sideways channel and not to expect a good directional move today – especially not a decline in the dollar against the yen. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy SignalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 156.01 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 156.60 (thicker green line). Around 156.60, I will exit the buys and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pair's rise today can be expected to continue the trend, but a strong movement is unlikely. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 155.63 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 156.01 and 156.60.Sell SignalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking the 155.63 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.09, where I will exit the sales and open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if there is a failure to hold around the daily high. Important! Before selling, please ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 156.01 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 155.63 and 155.09.What the chart shows:Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.Thick green line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.Thick red line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is crucial to consider overbought and oversold areas.Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 17th (US session)

May 17, 2024 | 08:07 am

Analysis of trades and tips for trading the British poundThe test of the 1.2651 price level occurred when the MACD indicator started moving down from the zero mark, confirming a sell signal for the pound. However, as you can see on the chart, a significant drop in the pair did not materialize. The absence of UK statistics once again did not benefit the pound. The second half of the day is expected to follow the same scenario since there are no significant statistics from the United States during the American session. This means low trading volumes and low market volatility. Regarding intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy SignalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point around 1.2662 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.2689 (thicker green line). Around 1.2689, I will exit the buys and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Today, the rise of the pound can be expected only within the sideways channel. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2642 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.2662 and 1.2689.Sell SignalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after breaking the 1.2642 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2615, where I will exit the sales and open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will be active if there is no activity around the daily high at the upper boundary of the sideways channel. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2662 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2642 and 1.2615.What the chart shows:Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.Thick green line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.Thick red line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is crucial to consider overbought and oversold areas.Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 17th (US session)

May 17, 2024 | 08:03 am

Analysis of trades and tips for trading the euroA test of the 1.0855 price level coincided with the MACD indicator starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. Data released in the first half of the day showing no progress in reducing inflation in the Eurozone increased pressure on EUR/USD, yielding about 20 points of profit. In the second half of the day, aside from the Leading Indicators Index for the US, there is nothing significant, so risk asset buyers might expect a market reversal and a slight recovery of the pair by the end of the week. However, volatility and trading volume will likely remain low. Therefore, it is unlikely that we will move beyond the current channel. Regarding intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy SignalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price area of 1.0849 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0874. At 1.0874, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. Any euro rise today can be expected within the sideways channel since there are no reasons for a strong rise. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0832 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0849 and 1.0874.Sell SignalScenario No. 1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.0832 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0814, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return, but trading near the lows of last Wednesday requires caution. Important! Before selling, please ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0849 price when the MACD indicator is overbought. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0832 and 1.0814.What the chart shows:Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.Thick green line: Estimated price for setting Take profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.Thick red line: Estimated price for setting Take profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is crucial to consider overbought and oversold areas.Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

May 17, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes is due. The weekly report records changes in the amount of oil production capacity in the United States. Earlier, the number of towers dropped to 496, supporting oil price. Read more

GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on May 17th (analysis of morning deals). The pound was bought back around 1.2643

May 17, 2024 | 07:58 am

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2643 level and planned to decide to enter the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The decline and the formation of a false breakdown there gave a buy signal, but after moving up by 15 points, demand for the pound decreased. In the afternoon, the technical picture was not revised, as the main disassembly for the 1.2643 level has not yet occurred.To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:The lack of data for the UK led to the pair's return to the area of yesterday's low, for which, most likely, the main struggle will continue. Given the empty economic calendar for the second half of the day, I will act according to the morning plan: I plan to buy the pound only after protecting the support of 1.2643, similar to what I discussed above. A decrease and the formation of a false breakdown will give an entry point into long positions that can bring the pound back to the area of 1.2671, where the moving averages are already located. Only a rush and a top-down test of this range is a chance for GBP/USD growth with an update of 1.2698 – month high. In the case of an exit above this range, we can talk about a breakthrough to 1.2734, where I will fix profits. In the scenario of GBP/USD falling and no buyers at 1.2643 in the afternoon, the pressure on the pound will increase, leading to a downward movement to the area of 1.2615. Forming a false breakdown will be a suitable option for entering the market. Opening long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2583 to correct 30-35 points within a day is possible.To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:In case of a bullish reaction to the data in the afternoon, I will act in the resistance area of 1.2671, which I failed to reach during the European session. The formation of a false breakout there will lead to an excellent entry point into short positions to further reduce GBP/USD to the area of 1.2643. However, a breakout and a reverse test from the bottom up of this range will increase the pressure on the pair, giving the bears an advantage and another entry point to sell to update 1.2615. A real struggle will unfold for this level. A further target will be a minimum of 1.2583, negating all buyers' efforts this week. I will fix the profit there. With the option of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears at 1.2671 in the afternoon, buyers will have the opportunity for an upward correction at the end of the week and an update to the level of 1.2698. I will also serve there only on a false breakdown. Without activity there, I advise you to open short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2734, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for May 7, there was an increase in long and short positions. There were far more buyers of the pound than sellers, all thanks to the meeting of the Bank of England. The regulator has prepared the markets for future interest rate cuts this summer. And although this was supposed to weaken the pound, but in the current situation of a troubled economy, traders reacted to everything with growth. The latest GDP and inflation data allow the Bank of England to begin easing policy, which will benefit consumers and businesses, to which the pound will respond by strengthening in the medium term. The latest COT report says that long non-profit positions increased by 8,108 to 51,777, while short non-profit positions jumped by 932 to 73,590. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 312.Indicator signals:Moving averagesTrading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline in the pair.Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the hourly H1 chart, which differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2643, will act as support.Description of indicators:Moving average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands: Period 20.Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions: Represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions: Represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.Total non-commercial net position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD retraces gains on the day and tests swing area support ahead of 38.2 retracement.

May 17, 2024 | 07:51 am

The USDCAD has now retraced the earlier gains in trading today. The price is now down testing a swing area between 1.3604 and 1.3615. A move below that level will have traders looking toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2024 low to the high price reached in April. That level comes in at 1.35899. In trading this week that retracement level was tested on two separate occasions.Today and going forward, that level will be a key barometer for both buyers and sellers. The price of the USDCAD has been trending higher since December low (with ups and downs along the way). However, the correction over the last month or so of trading as seen lower highs and lower lows. The 38.2% retracement is always a target level that needs to be broken -and stay broken - if the sellers are to take more control.So far that hasn't been done keeping the buyers in play. That would change with a break below that retracement level. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on May 17th (analysis of morning deals). The euro continues to lose ground

May 17, 2024 | 07:50 am

I focused on the 1.0866 level in my morning forecast and planned to make market entry decisions from there. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. The rise and the formation of a false breakout at this level provided an excellent entry point for short positions, resulting in another significant drop in the pair with a renewal of support at 1.0863. Since we remained trading within the channel, the technical picture for the second half of the day remains unchanged.To open long positions on EUR/USD:The inflation data in the Eurozone for April this year completely matched economists' forecasts, which renewed pressure on the euro. The chances of buyers making a significant move by the end of this week are rapidly diminishing. There is absolutely no statistical data in the second half of the day that could lead to a serious spike in volatility, so buyers have only one hope left, and that is the 1.0836 level. The formation of a false breakout will be a suitable option for entering the market, anticipating a rise in the pair and a return to the morning high of 1.0866. A breakout and consolidation above this range will strengthen the pair and give it a chance to surge to 1.0893, the monthly high. The furthest target will be the 1.0918 high, where I will be taking profits. In the case of a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of activity around 1.0836 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pair will only increase, leading to a larger fall. In that case, I will only enter long positions after forming a false breakout around the next support at 1.0836. I plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0805 with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.To open short positions on EUR/USD:Sellers are making quite successful attempts, continually recovering their losses. Given how much we have fallen, I will act after a failed attempt to break through the morning resistance at 1.0866. Protection and the formation of a false breakout there, similar to what I analyzed above, will be a suitable scenario for opening short positions with the prospect of a decline in the euro and a renewal of support at 1.0836. A breakout and consolidation below this range and a reverse test from bottom to top will provide another selling point, targeting a move to the 1.0805 low. The furthest target will be the 1.0778 area, where I will take profits. Testing this level will indicate the pair is locked in a sideways channel. If EUR/USD moves upward in the second half of the day and bears are absent at 1.0866, and since there are no reasons for them to be there today, buyers will get a chance to rise by the end of the week. In that case, I will postpone selling until testing the next resistance at 1.0893. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0918, aiming for a downward correction of 30-35 points.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for May 7, there was a reduction in short positions and an increase in long ones. This indicates that demand for risky assets, although still present, is rather weak after the central bank meetings. The fact that the number of long and short positions is almost equal also indicates a lack of advantage for either side, which the chart confirms. Now, traders will await new statistics and benchmarks while trading continues in a sideways channel with a slight advantage for risk asset buyers. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 3,409 to 170,594, while short non-commercial positions fell by 7,958 to 166,004. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 2,295.Indicator signals:Moving averagesTrading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline in the pair.Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the hourly H1 chart, which differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.0836, will act as support.Description of indicators:Moving average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands: Period 20.Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions: Represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions: Represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.Total non-commercial net position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. May 17th. Bulls are satisfied and retreating

May 17, 2024 | 07:45 am

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 76.4% (1.0892) and turned in favor of the US dollar. Thus, the process of falling toward the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (1.0837) began, which is currently too weak to be considered a wave. A rebound from the 1.0837 level will favor the euro and a return to the 1.0892 level. Consolidation below 1.0837 will allow traders to expect a continuation of the fall toward the support zone of 1.0785–1.0797. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last downward wave ended on May 1st and failed to approach the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave has already broken the previous wave's peak and has been forming for 12 days. Thus, a bullish trend has formed, with bulls attacking almost daily. I consider this trend rather weak and do not believe it will continue for long. However, the upward movement continued for a month, and the bears could not push the pair even to the lower line of the channel. Therefore, there are no signs of the bullish trend ending now.The information background on Thursday once again let down the US dollar, although the market needed to see fit to react to all the information received. However, yesterday should be forgotten. Today, the final inflation report for April will be released in the Eurozone. The consumer price index is expected to slow to 2.4% year-on-year. Core inflation may slow to 2.7%, enough for the ECB to consider lowering rates next month. After a significant rise in the euro and a prolonged period of bull dominance, I naturally expect a decline. However, it is only about a corrective wave that will not break the bullish trend. The fact that the ECB is ready to start easing monetary policy should support the bears. On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the "wedge" and rose to the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0862. The last segment of the euro's growth looks ambiguous, so I am unsure about continuing the upward movement. However, sell signals are needed to expect a decline, which is currently absent. No emerging divergences were observed today, either. The growth process may continue towards the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.0959). Sell signals are better tracked on the hourly chart.Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:During the last reporting week, speculators opened 3,409 long contracts and closed 7,958 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group turned bearish a couple of weeks ago, but now there is equilibrium between the bulls and bears. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 170 thousand, while the number of short contracts is 166 thousand. However, the situation will continue to shift in favor of the bears. In the second column, the number of short positions has increased from 140 thousand to 166 thousand over the last three months. Long positions decreased from 202 thousand to 170 thousand during the same period. The bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong background in information to resume the bullish trend. A series of poor reports from the US supported the euro, but more is needed for the long term.News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC).The economic event calendar contains only one entry on May 17th. The information background's impact on trader sentiment today will be weak.Forecast for EUR/USD and trading tips:Selling the pair was possible on a rebound from the 1.0892 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0837 and the lower line of the ascending corridor. These trades can now remain open. Buying the euro can be considered a rebound from the 1.0837 level or from the 1.0785–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0892.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. May 17th. US statistics disappoint bears again

May 17, 2024 | 07:39 am

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the resistance zone of 1.2690–1.2705, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and began to fall towards 1.2611. The bullish trend remains intact, and the bulls will not easily relinquish their initiative. I do not foresee a significant drop in the pound for now. Consolidation above the 1.2690–1.2705 zone will increase the likelihood of further growth towards the next level of 1.2788. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last downward wave ended on May 9th without breaking the low of the previous wave, and the new upward wave broke the peak on May 3rd. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair has turned bullish. However, this bullish trend might be short-lived, as the current information background does not seem strong enough for the pound to sustain several more upward waves. Nevertheless, the first sign of the end of the bullish trend will appear only when a new downward wave manages to break the low of the previous wave from May 9th. The pound must fall by 240–250 points from the current price.The pound continues to bask in the limelight. Although not all of the information in the background supports the bulls, the bears cannot counter them. Yesterday, disappointing economic data came from America. Industrial production did not grow as traders had expected. The Philadelphia business activity index was below forecasts. And the number of building permits issued needed to meet market expectations. Thus, the bulls had another opportunity to attack yesterday, but they paused, having already pushed the pound up quite well. The bears undoubtedly may counterattack, but they might need more strength to form a large wave. On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the level of 1.2620, which suggests the possibility of continued growth towards the corrective level of 1.2745. I need help to imagine an information background that will continue to support the bulls. However, it cannot be denied that the pound may continue to rise, given the breakout from the downward trend corridor. A rebound from the 1.2745 level might cool the bulls' ardor, which has been running high lately.Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:The sentiment of the "non-commercial" category of traders became less bearish over the past reporting week. The number of long contracts held by speculators increased by 8,109 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 932. The overall sentiment of large players has changed, and now the bears are dictating their terms in the market. The gap between the long and short contracts is 22 thousand: 51 thousand against 73 thousand.The pound still has prospects for a decline. Over the past three months, the number of long contracts has decreased from 83 thousand to 51 thousand, while the number of short contracts has increased from 49 thousand to 73 thousand. Over time, the bulls will continue to reduce their buy positions or increase their sell positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been exhausted. The bears have shown weakness and complete reluctance to go on the offensive in recent months, but I still expect the pound to start a stronger decline.News calendar for the US and the UK:The economic events calendar does not contain any interesting entries for Friday. This background information will have no impact on market sentiment for the rest of the day.Forecast for GBP/USD and trading tips:Selling the pound was possible on a rebound from the resistance zone on the hourly chart at 1.2690–1.2705, with targets at 1.2611 and 1.2565. The pound cannot rise forever. Buying can be considered upon closing above the 1.2705 level, with targets at 1.2788–1.2801. Regarding rebounds from the levels of 1.2611 and 1.2565 on the hourly chart, the target is the 1.2690–1.2705 zone.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for BITCOIN, (BTC/USD) for May 17-21, 2024: buy above $65,625 (200 EMA - 5/8 Murray)

May 17, 2024 | 07:39 am

Bitcoin is trading around 66,189 above the 200 EMA and 21 SMA with bullish bias, showing signs of exhaustion on the H4 chart.The H4 chart shows us that Bitcoin maintains intact its uptrend channel forming since early May. We believe that BTC could reach the key resistance of 6/8 Murray at 68,750 in the coming days and even reach the top of the uptrend channel around 69,350.If bullish strength prevails and if Bitcoin consolidates above 65,625 (5/8 Murray), we could expect it to continue rising. This would be seen as an opportunity to buy.On the contrary, in case there is a technical correction, we could expect BTC to find good support around 64,113 where the 21 SMA is located or around the 200 EMA at 63,489. If this scenario comes true, a technical rebound will allow us to resume long positions. Bitcoin maintains bullish momentum, so any technical correction could be seen as an opportunity to continue buying.The key level of 62,500 gives us a positive medium-term and long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Above this area, we could expect the price to reach $70,000 and could even exceed this level.With a sharp break below the uptrend channel and a consolidation below 62,500 on the H4 chart, the outlook could change and Bitcoin could reach 2/8 Murray located at 56,250.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD bounces off the dual support level.

May 17, 2024 | 07:29 am

In the kickstart video, I outlined the key dual technical level at the 61.8% and the 100 hour MA. Both were at 1.08354. Buyers leaned against the dual technical level and the price has bounced to 1.0862. The close yesterday came in at 1.0863. Move above that level and traders will retarget the higher swing area between 1.08758 and 1.08872 (see Kickstart video here). Yields remain higher with the 10 year up 2.5 basis points at 4.042%. US stocks are marginally higher. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF finds willing sellers near week highs, moving averages and key swing area

May 17, 2024 | 07:10 am

The USDCHF has moved back toward the high for the week, and in the process is retesting a swing area between 0.9087 – 0.90978, and converged 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4- hour chart at 0.90915.The high price installed near 0.90978, and the price has rotated back lower and below the aforementioned target resistance area. Stay below the 0.9087 – 0.90978 area keeps the sellers in play. Going forward it would take a move above that area to increase the bullish bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

May 17, 2024 | 06:52 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.15; (P) 154.84; (R1) 156.08; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg, to retest 160.20 high. On the downside, below 153.59 will […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

May 17, 2024 | 06:50 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9013; (P) 0.9038; (R1) 0.9088; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point. Further decline is expected as long as 0.9101 resistance holds. Break of 0.8987 will resume the whole fall from 0.9223 and target 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 next. However, break of 0.9101 will turn […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 17, 2024 | 06:48 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2642; (P) 1.2672; (R1) 1.2699; More… GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.2669 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 1.2445 support holds. Break of 1.2708 resistance will pave the way to 1.2892 resistance next. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 17, 2024 | 06:45 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0850; (P) 1.0872; (R1) 1.0890; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.0894 and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0765 support holds. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rise from 1.0601 to 1.0980 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that whole fall from […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY: up and only up!

May 17, 2024 | 06:19 am

The yen is losing bullish momentum again. After a short-term correction, USD/JPY again headed upward, thereby confirming the resilience of the uptrend. To be fair, the US dollar index has been growing for the second day in a row, reacting to hawkish statements from Fed policymakers. But still, USD/JPY has been trading robustly in terms of dynamics among the major dollar pairs. Buyers are actively regaining lost positions. So, in the short term, the instrument may return to the area above 156. This dynamic is caused not only by the recovery of the US dollar but also by the weakening of the yen.Let's discuss the greenback for a start. By and large, the dollar managed to stay afloat only thanks to the Federal Reserve, whose representatives gave cautious comments on the latest inflation reports. Let me remind you that all components of the consumer price index went down in April – both in annual terms and on a monthly basis. In contrast, the producer price index, on the contrary, increased. The annual PPI rose to 2.2% (an increase recorded for the third month in a row). This is the strongest figure since November last year. The core PPI updated its 7-month high, increasing to 2.4% y/y, the strongest growth rate since September 2023. Immediately after the publication of inflation reports, the probability of maintaining the status quo at the Fed's meeting in September decreased to 25% whereas the probability of a rate cut by 25 basis points grew to 55%, by 50 basis points to 20%. Fed officials could "cement" these market expectations if they softened their rhetoric. But events unfolded according to a different scenario. In particular, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, commenting on the latest releases, said that he does not see any need to lower the interest rate at all in the near future. According to him, he still has no confidence that inflation is moving steadily towards the target level of two percent. His colleague, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said that lowering the funds rate this year is not a rock-solid conclusion. According to him, one cannot draw conclusions based on one report, because "one release is not a trend." Another Fed official, Kansas City Fed Governor Jeffrey Schmid voiced similar rhetoric, saying that US inflation remains too high and the Fed "still has a lot of work to do." In this context, he said that the funds rate may remain at the current high level for a longer time. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester took a similar stance, adding that the Fed risks little by keeping policy unchanged. From her viewpoint, maintaining the current funds rate's level will help bring "still high inflation" down to the target level. In the end, Jerome Powell made it clear this week that the Fed would keep the funds rate at the current level for a long time. He assessed the likelihood of tightening the policy as "low." However, he did not discuss the timing of monetary easing. This is a good omen to the dollar bulls. In other words, Fed policymakers threw a lifeline to the dollar, thanks to which it was able not only to stay afloat, but also to show character - especially when trading against the yen. Moreover, the yen found itself under pressure from fundamental factors. In particular, yesterday it became known that inflation in Japan was likely to decline further in April. The core consumer price index slowed to 2.2% last month, its lowest since January this year, after rising to 2.6% in March, according to a Reuters poll. Whether this is true or not, we will find out next week. The inflation report will be published on May 24.In addition, the Japanese currency was hit by a wave of sell-offs after yesterday's report, which reflected a slowdown in Japan's economic growth in the first quarter. GDP contracted by 0.5%, against a forecast of a contraction of 0.3% and after weak growth of 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year. Tepid inflation forecasts and economic growth data further reduce the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. Thus, the current fundamental background contributes to the further growth in USD/JPY. At the moment, on the daily chart, the instrument is between the middle and upper borders of the Bollinger Bands indicator, testing the resistance level of 156.00 (Kijun-sen level on the D1 timeframe). After the price consolidates above this pivot level, the Ichimoku indicator will generate a bullish signal, Parade of Lines. The first target of the upward move is located at 157.00, the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four-hour chart. The main target is 157.90, the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for May 17-21, 2024: buy above $2,385 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

May 17, 2024 | 06:08 am

Early in the American session, gold is trading around 2,388.85, within an uptrend channel, above the 6/8 Murray, and above the 21 SMA.We believe that gold could continue its rise in the next few hours, but technically it is showing signs of exhaustion. Hence, it is likely that there will be a final rally and the price could reach a high of 2,407.In our previous articles, we explained that gold has bullish potential since it left a GAP at 2,392 on April 18 that was covered. This strategy always kept us with a positive outlook. Now we believe that gold could enter a technical correction phase, only if it falls below 2,375.As long as gold trades and consolidates above 6/8 Murray, the outlook remains positive. So, a pullback and bounce above this area will allow us to resume buying with a target at 7/8 Murray located at 2,437.On the contrary, a drop below 2,365 could mean a break of the uptrend channel and gold could reverse the trajectory downward. Therefore, we could expect it to reach 5/8 Murray located at 2,312 or the 200 EMA located at 2,313. If gold falls towards this area, it could find good support so that the bullish trend could still prevail.With a daily close below the 200 EMA, the outlook for gold could be negative in the long term. We could expect a fall towards 4/8 Murray located at 2,250. Moreover, the price could even reach the psychological level of $2,200.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Kickstart the FX trading day for May 17 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

May 17, 2024 | 06:06 am

The USD is higher coming into the US trading session. This video I take a look at Big 3 pairs from a technical perspective - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.The EURUSD has moved down to test its broken 61.8% retracement of the move-down from the March high to the April low. The level also corresponds with the 100-hour moving average near 1.0835 increasing the levels importance from a technical perspective. That level will be the barometer for both buyers and sellers today and going forward. Beware.The USDJPY will tire yesterday and also above a key resistance area near 154.80. The momentum has continued in training today with the price moving above both its 200-hour moving average and 100-hour moving average at 155.54 and 155.68. Those moving averages will act as the key barometer/support today. Staying above is more bullish. Moving below is more bearish.The GBPUSD moved above its 100-day moving average on Wednesday after the CPI/retail sales/year manufacturing index came in weaker than expectations. The price high this week stalled ahead of the next target near 1.2707 and has rotated back down yesterday and again today. However, the low prices have been able to stay above the aforementioned 100-day moving average at 1.2631. If the price can stay above the 100-day moving average, the buyers are more control This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins

May 17, 2024 | 05:09 am

TGIF.It is Friday, and to start the trading day in North America, the USD is the strongest of the major currencies and the AUD is the weakest. The economic calendar is limited todaywith the Conference Board consumer confidence the only US release. Canada has the ubiquitous Foreign Securities Purchased numbers scheduled . In Europe, EU final CPI data came in spot on the expectations. ECBs de Guindos commented overnight that sees inflation moving toward 2% goal in 2025. Nothing new there. Geopolitial tensions remain high with the US saying they will agree to a Rafah operation but on conditions. Russia and Ukraine had some headlines cross. US stocks are little changed to start the day. Yields in the US are higher. A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins showsCrude oil is trading down $0.60 or -0.76% at $78.70. At this time yesterday, the price was at $78.77Gold is trading up $13.46 or 0.57% at $2389.70. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2384.50Silver is trading up $0.19 for 0.65% at $29.75. At this time yesterday, the price was at $29.65Bitcoin currently trades at $66,272. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $66,581In the premarket, the major indices are little changed. Yesterday the three major indices closed lower after record high closes on Wednesday for the big threeDow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 21.02 points. Yesterday, the index fell -38.62 points or -0.10% at 39869.39S&P futures are implying a gain of 1.75 points. Yesterday the index fell -11.05 points or -0.20% at 5297.09Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of 17.25 points. Yesterday the index fell -44.07 points or -0.26% at 16698.32European stock indices are trading lower:German DAX, -0.35%France CAC , -0.49%UK FTSE 100, -0.39%Spain's Ibex, unchangedItaly's FTSE MIB, -0.16% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were higher after the strong gains in the US yesterday:Japan's Nikkei 225, -0.34%. For the week the index rose 1.46%.China's Shanghai Composite Index, +1.01%. For the week the index fell -0.16%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.91%. For the week the index rose 3.11%.Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.85%. For the week the index rose 0.8%Looking at the US debt market, yields are mostly higher after yesterday's rise:2-year yield 4.795%, -0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.748%5-year yield 4.413%, +1.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.353%10-year yield 4.394%, +1.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.332%30-year yield 4.540%, +2.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.479%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads:The 2-10 year spread is at -40.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -41.7 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at -25.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -27.1 basis points.European benchmark 10-year yields are mixed: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Euro edges lower despite positive inflation report

May 17, 2024 | 04:44 am

The euro has posted slight losses on Friday. EUR/USD is down 0.28%, trading at 1.0837 in the North American session at the time of writing. Eurozone CPI steady, core CPI falls The April inflation report showed that headline inflation remained steady at 2.4% y/y, holding at its lowest level in almost three years. Services inflation […]

AUD/CHF Forex Signal: Australian Dollar Continues to Rise Against Swiss Franc

May 17, 2024 | 04:25 am

The Australian dollar initially fell during the trading session on Thursday but has seen a complete turnaround as we have rallied to test the top of the breakout candlestick from the Wednesday session.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – We are approaching a key resistance level

May 17, 2024 | 04:24 am

Fundamental OverviewThe more dovish than expected FOMC decision eventually marked the bottom in many risk assets including Bitcoin. In addition, the benign US CPI figures on Wednesday were the trigger for the risk-on sentiment that took US stocks to new all-time highs and boosted the cryptocurrency. As long as the positive sentiment holds, we should see new highs for Bitcoin in the next few weeks with a break above the 67275 level probably confirming the bullish case. Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the break below the key support zone around the 60K level eventually turned out to be a fakeout. The cryptocurrency is now near a key swing point around the 67275 level. A break above that level should open the door for a rally into the cycle highs if not even higher. Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the more dovish than expected FOMC decision marked the bottom for the correction and the benign US CPI figures were the green light for a rally in risk assets. The price action around the 60K support might have also formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern with the 67275 level as the neckline. We can expect the sellers to lean on the neckline with a defined risk above it and target a drop back into the 60K support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see a breakout to the upside to increase the bullish bets into the cycle highs.Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the bullish momentum is waning ahead of the key resistance as depicted by the divergence with the RSI. Moreover, the average daily range marked by the red lines shows that Bitcoin is unlikely to extend to new highs today and if it the price rallies into the resistance it’s more likely that we will see a rejection. A good level where to lean on for the buyers would be the swing low at 64568 as a break below that level might invalidate the bullish case and see the cryptocurrency falling back to the 60K support. Upcoming CatalystsWe don’t have any noteworthy catalysts for today, so the markets will likely follow the path of least resistance set by the US CPI report or just consolidate into the weekend. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USD/MXN Forecast: US Dollar Struggles Against Peso

May 17, 2024 | 04:20 am

The US dollar initially rallied against the Mexican peso during the trading session on Thursday but has given back some of the gains.

S&P 500 Forecast: Index Grinds Higher

May 17, 2024 | 04:13 am

The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday as we continue to see upward pressure.

Video market update for May 17, 2024

May 17, 2024 | 02:43 am

Potential for the further downside movement on the NAS100The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Technical Analysis – No barriers in sight

May 17, 2024 | 02:29 am

Fundamental OverviewThe S&P 500 has been rallying almost non-stop since the FOMC meeting, and thanks to the miss in the NFP report and the benign CPI report the price eventually hit a new all-time high yesterday. We are currently seeing a bit of a pullback, which is totally normal after such a strong run. The US jobless claims yesterday could have weighed on the risk sentiment if they were worse than the prior reading, but instead, we got another positive release which should keep the bullish momentum going. S&P 500 Futures Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high yesterday and pulled back a bit soon after. The correction into the 4835 support is unlikely at the moment as we would need a strong deterioration in the growth and jobs data to reverse the bullish trend. We can expect the buyers to pile in more aggressively if we break above the 5336 level. The sellers, on the other hand, might step in around these levels with a defined risk above the high to position for the correction into the 4835 level, although that looks unlikely at the moment. S&P 500 Futures Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a good support zone around the 5300 level where we can find the confluence of the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Technical buyers might lean on the trendline to position for a rally into new highs with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the 5217 swing level. S&P 500 Futures Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 5325 level where the price got rejected a couple of times since yesterday. A break above the zone should see the buyers piling in with more conviction and target a new high. The sellers, on the other hand, might lean on it to position for the continuation of the pullback into the trendline with a better risk to reward setup. The two red lines indicate the top and bottom of the average daily range. This is how much the market could move on any given day barring strong catalysts. Upcoming CatalystsWe don’t have anything on the calendar for today, so the market will likely consolidate into the weekend. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Dow Jones soars: 40,000 points, while GameStop and AMC fall without brakes

May 17, 2024 | 02:28 am

The milestone for the Dow coincided with other key indexes setting new records, the S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) also hitting all-time highs this week. The gains reflect growing investor confidence in the U.S. economic outlook, suggesting the country could achieve a so-called "soft landing." Investors believe the Federal Reserve can contain inflation without significantly hurting economic growth. According to the latest data from LSEG IBES, published on May 10, the current earnings season was also better than expected, with 77% of companies beating analysts' forecasts, compared with 67% in the previous period, helping stocks rise. The components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are weighted based on their stock prices, unlike the S&P 500, where individual stocks are weighted based on their market value. This weighting technique may cause the Dow Jones Industrial Average to adjust more slowly to include new popular companies. According to the S&P Dow Jones Indices' annual asset survey through December 2023, approximately $89 billion of investments were tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while the S&P 500 Index had $11.45 trillion in assets tied to it. However, despite its focus on stock price, the Dow retains a significant cultural heritage. Founded in 1896, it is significantly older than other major indices such as the S&P 500, which was launched in 1957, and the Nasdaq, launched in 1971. Over the past 20 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has outperformed the S&P 500 eight times. This year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 5.8%, while the S&P 500 is up 11.1% and the Nasdaq is up 11.2%. . "The Dow is the symbol of America," said Quincy Crosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. "Many experts have lost interest in it, but this index still represents Main Street America." At the end of trading on Thursday, the index closed at 39,869.38 after falling in the afternoon.After reaching the 10,000 mark, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced rapid growth, although market participants cannot clearly pinpoint the reason for this impulse. The index's average monthly gain after breaking 10,000 points was 4.3%, significantly higher than the average monthly gain of 0.57% recorded since the index's inception in May 1896. The Dow Jones Industrial Average's recent hit of 40,000 came just over three years after it hit 30,000. This interval was filled with significant market fluctuations caused by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation and the Federal Reserve's response, which raised interest rates to stabilize rising consumer prices. The composition of the Dow Jones Industrial Average differs markedly from the S&P 500 due to differences in the selection and weighting of index components. For example, as of the last close of trading on Wednesday, UnitedHealth Group (UNH.N), the top-ranked stock in the Dow Jones, was the thirteenth-largest stock in the S&P 500. The second-largest stock in the Dow, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) isn't even in the top 50 of the S&P 500. In contrast, leading tech giants like Nvidia (NVDA.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O), which are among the top six companies on the S&P 500, are not represented in the Dow. Shares of GameStop (GME.N) and AMC (AMC.N), which are popular among retail investors, fell for a second straight day on Thursday amid increased activity on social media. The return to the Internet of "Roaring Kitty", a key character in the meme campaigns of 2021, has contributed to the fading of interest in this phenomenon. Shares of video game retailer GameStop fell 30% to close at $27.67 after jumping to $64.83 on Tuesday. Shares of the movie theater chain AMC closed with a loss of 15.3%, reaching $4.64. Both companies faced sharp declines after rising in the first two sessions of the week, fueled by a series of messages from Keith Gill, known online as "Roaring Kitty." His enthusiasm for GameStop stock in 2021 sparked a massive craze for meme stocks. In a change from 2021, when Reddit users bought heavily shorted stocks in droves, fueling bets against hedge funds, this time institutional investors also joined the meme stocks, said Vanda Research, a company that tracks retail investor flows. Meanwhile, hedge fund Renaissance Technologies reportedly increased its bets on GameStop shares and significantly increased its long-term position in AMC in the first quarter. GameStop shares have lost more than 70% of their value from their 2021 intraday high, while AMC shares have fallen 99% from their all-time peak. Former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton told CNBC on Wednesday that such events have caused "a wave of euphoria and speculative buying among retail traders, which rarely ends well." In addition to this, other stocks that have also posted significant gains this week experienced declines on Thursday. Shares of Tupperware (TUP.N) fell nearly 8%, while U.S.-traded shares of BlackBerry were down about 6%.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forex forecast 05/17/2024: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, Gold and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga

May 17, 2024 | 02:15 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Video Agenda: 00:00 INTRO 00:13 Totay's key events: Industrial Production, Chinese Unemployment Rate, BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks, CPI, FOMC Member Daly Speaks, U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 02:11 EUR/USD 03:53 AUD/USD 06:38 GOLD 07:45 BTC/USDUseful links:My other articles are available in this sectionInstaForex course for beginnersPopular AnalyticsOpen trading accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound edges lower, markets eye FedSpeak

May 17, 2024 | 02:05 am

The British pound is down slightly on Friday. GBP/USD is down 0.14%, trading at 1.2648 in the European session at the time of writing. It has been a good week for the pound, which has gained 1% against the US dollar. Wednesday’s inflation release showed CPI dipping in April, reversing the trend of the past […]

EUR/GBP Forecast: Grinds Higher

May 17, 2024 | 01:48 am

The euro has bounced a bit after initially selling off on Thursday as the 50-day EMA continues to attract a certain amount of attention.

AUD/USD Forecast: Australian Dollar Tests Previous Resistance for Support

May 17, 2024 | 01:27 am

The Australian dollar has been all over the place during the trading session on Thursday, as we initially tried to rally, but then turned around to show signs of negativity.

Australian dollar hits 4-month high

May 17, 2024 | 01:25 am

The Australian dollar is lower on Friday. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6658 in the European session, down 0.31% on the day. The Aussie touched a high of 0.6714 on Thursday, its highest level since January 10th. This followed a massive 1% surge on Wednesday after the US inflation report indicated that April CPI ticked […]

Gold Technical Analysis – New all-time high ahead?

May 17, 2024 | 01:20 am

Fundamental OverviewGold got a boost from the benign US CPI report on Wednesday where the data came in line with expectations. The market firmed up the rate cuts expectations with September and December now fully priced in. The Treasury yields and the US Dollar weakened as a result supporting gold prices. In the bigger picture, nothing has changed, so the path of least resistance should remain to the upside for now.Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is slowly climbing back to the all-time high as the US data calmed the fears around inflation and rate hikes. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will certainly have a much better risk to reward setup around the 2150 level where we can find the confluence of the trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, but we haven’t got any catalysts to trigger such a big correction. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price pulled back after the rally following the US CPI release and bounced on the trendline around the 2375 level. This is where the buyers are piling in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for an extension into the all-time high at 2430. If the price were to break lower, that would be a signal that the bullish momentum has waned, and the sellers will likely pile in to target a drop into the next support around the 2355 level where we can find the confluence of another trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. That’s where the buyers will have another chance to position for a rally into the all-time high with an even better risk to reward setup.Upcoming CatalystsWe don’t have anything on the calendar for today, so the market will likely consolidate into the weekend. See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: NASDAQ 100 Continues to Rally

May 17, 2024 | 01:19 am

The NASDAQ 100 rallied again during the early hours on Thursday as we continue to see plenty of momentum.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

May 17, 2024 | 00:41 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0850; (P) 1.0872; (R1) 1.0890; More… Intraday bias in EUR/SD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen but further rally is expected as long as 1.0765 support holds. Break of 1.0894 will resume the rise from 1.0601 to 1.0980 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that whole fall […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

May 17, 2024 | 00:36 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2642; (P) 1.2672; (R1) 1.2699; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen but further rally is expected as long as 1.2445 support holds. Break of 1.2708 resistance will pave the way to 1.2892 resistance next. In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

May 17, 2024 | 00:32 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.15; (P) 154.84; (R1) 156.08; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. ON the upside break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg, to retest 160.20 high. On the downside, below 153.59 will target […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

May 17, 2024 | 00:24 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9013; (P) 0.9038; (R1) 0.9088; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 0.9101 resistance holds. Break of 0.8987 will resume the whole fall from 0.9223 and target 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883 next. However, break of 0.9101 will turn […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

May 17, 2024 | 00:21 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6651; (P) 0.6682; (R1) 0.6711; More... Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations would be seen below 0.6713 temporary top first. But further rally is expected as long as 0.6578 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 has probably completed with three waves down to 0.6361 […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 17

May 17, 2024 | 00:18 am

Overview of trading and tips on EUR/USDThe price test of 1.0858 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had sharply fallen below the zero mark, which limited the EUR/USD pair's potential to fall in the afternoon—especially after the euro had weakened quite substantially. After a short period of time, another test followed, and this coincided with the moment when the MACD was in oversold territory, allowing the second buy scenario to unfold. As a result, the pair was up 20 pips. The market ignored the forecasts from the European Commission and a decent report on the financial stability of the Eurozone. Only weak data on the US labor market and real estate market returned the demand for the euro. However, we can't say that buyers have complete control of the market. Today, the eurozone Consumer Price Index for April and the core CPI could provide impetus. If the indicators coincide with economists' forecasts, the pair will likely remain under pressure, so be very careful with buying the euro today. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.Buy signalsScenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0877 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0920. At the level of 1.0920, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today, but only within the sideways channel. It is unlikely for the pair to rally. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0855 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0877 and 1.0920.Sell signalsScenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0855 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0825, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate near the daily high and weak Eurozone data. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0877 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0855 and 1.0825.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 17

May 17, 2024 | 00:18 am

Overview of trading and tips on GBP/USDThe price test of 1.2648 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had sharply fallen below the zero mark, which limited the GBP/USD pair's potential to fall in the afternoon—especially after the pound weakened quite substantially. After a short period of time, another test followed, and this coincided with the moment when the MACD was in oversold territory, allowing the second buy scenario to unfold. As a result, the pair was up 30 pips. Unfortunately, in the absence of UK data on Friday, we can only expect the pair to rise after traders actively defend the daily low. If the price breaches this mark, the pair could sharply fall, so be very careful with long positions at the end of the week. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy the pound today when GBP/USD reaches the entry point at 1.2682 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 1.2713 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.2713, I'm going to close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). You can count on the pound's growth today, but only within the sideways channel with the purpose of updating the monthly high. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2651 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2682 and 1.2713.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell the pound today after testing the level of 1.2651 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be 1.2615, where I am going to close short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from that level). You can sell the pound after the pair fails to consolidate near the local high, counting on a bearish reversal. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2682 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.2651 and 1.2615.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 17

May 17, 2024 | 00:18 am

Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPYThe price test of 155.15 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had significantly risen from the zero mark, which affected the dollar's potential to rise. For this reason, I did not buy, even though the upward movement remained intact. Yesterday, Japan's GDP report exerted pressure on the yen, and despite weak US labor market data, which suggests that it's time for the Federal Reserve to stop, the dollar recovered most of the losses incurred against the backdrop of US inflation data. The USD/JPY may continue to strengthen today, but it's better to buy on corrections. This way, you can have a greater margin of movement, without relying on the assumption that major players will want to storm weekly highs at the end of the week. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point at 155.94 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 156.60 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 156.60, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today in continuation of the trend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 155.41 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 155.94 and 156.60.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 155.41 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 154.84, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return in case the price fails to settle near today's high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 155.94 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 155.41 and 154.84.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Consumer price index. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 17, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), April data on the consumer price index of EU countries is due. It is the main indicator of inflation and determines changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on, and has a significant impact on the decision of the financial regulator in the field of monetary policy. The consumer price index may fall from 0.8% to 0.6% MoM and stay at 2.4% YoY, while the core reading may adjust from 1.1% to 0.7% MoM and from 2.9% to 2.7% MoM. Read more

USD/CAD Forecast: Showing Signs of Life

May 16, 2024 | 23:16 pm

The US dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as the 1.36 level has offered a significant amount of support and resistance over the last several months.

GBP/USD Forecast: Anticipate Pullbacks

May 16, 2024 | 23:12 pm

The British pound initially trying to rally during the session in the early hours of Thursday but has turned back around to show signs of hesitation.

BTC/USD Forecast: Strong with Resistance

May 16, 2024 | 23:06 pm

Bitcoin has stalled a little bit at the $66,000 level, which is an area that has been important previously.

Gold Forecast: Struggles at Resistance Barrier

May 16, 2024 | 23:00 pm

Gold has pulled back from the crucial $2,400 level during trading on Thursday, which is an area that has been important multiple times.

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Cardano Cryptocurrency, Friday May 17 2024.

May 16, 2024 | 22:37 pm

If we look at the 4-hour chart of the Cardano cryptocurrency, it appears that Cardano's price movement has managed to breaks above EMA 20 & EMA 50, so based on this, in the near future, Cardano has the opportunity to test the level of 0.46277, although there is still a chance for it to be corrected down to the Bullish Fair Value level. The gap will be tested before continuing to strengthen again, which is important as long as the weakening correction does not penetrate below the 0.44481 level, Cardano still has the potential and opportunity to strengthen again to the 0.47663 level.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Polkadot Cryptocurrency, Friday May 17 2024.

May 16, 2024 | 22:37 pm

With the successful of the Polkadot cryptocurrency in breaking above the EMA 20 & EMA 50, it seems that in the near future this cryptocurrency will try to test the 7,1615 level if this level is successfully broken upwards and there is no significant correction, especially if it broken below the level 6,4286 then Polkadot has the potential to continue its strengthening up to level 7,3757 as its main target and based on Ichimoku Wave Projection E, then later the level 7,6010 will be the next target to be aimed at.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 17-21, 2024: sell below 1.0864 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

May 16, 2024 | 22:02 pm

Early in the European session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0857 within the uptrend channel forming since April 29 and below 6/8 Murray under a technical correction.It is expected that the euro will continue to make a technical correction in the next few hours and could reach the 21 SMA located at 1.0840. EUR/USD could even reach the bottom of the bullish trend channel around 1.0817.If the euro makes a technical rebound and consolidates again above 1.0864, the outlook could be positive, but the instrument could encounter strong resistance around 1.0894.The H4 chart shows that the euro has strong resistance in the area between 1.0884 and 1.0895. Therefore, we could expect that in case there is a pullback and EUR/USD fails to break resistance, it could resume the technical correction.A sharp break of the downtrend channel and a consolidation below 1.0815 could be the beginning of a trend change for the euro and the instrument could find good support around 1.0767 and at 4/8 Murray located at 1.0742.A positive outlook could still be maintained in the euro if it consolidates above 1.0750. Above this area, the euro could resume its bullish cycle and reach the psychological level of 1.10.On the contrary, with a consolidation below 1.0742 (4/8 Murray) on the daily chart, the outlook could be negative. Thus, EUR/USD could reach 1.0681 in the short term, 1.0620, and even the psychological level of 1.05.In the meantime, we will look for opportunities to sell the euro as the eagle indicator is showing overbought signals. As long as the euro trades below 1.0900, it will be seen as a signal to sell.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 17. Simple tips for beginners

May 16, 2024 | 21:46 pm

Analyzing Thursday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart The EUR/USD started a minor correction, and it may continue this movement on Friday. A decline of 30-40 pips is nothing if we compare it to a month-long period of upward movement. The price has not overcome the level of 1.0888 on the first attempt, but this doesn't mean that the bulls have left the market. The pair could still rise. First of all, the market remains bullish, and the euro continues to rise even when it has no grounds to do so. For some, the current movement may seem logical, especially considering the latest macro data from the US. This is indeed partly true. However, we want to remind everyone of a crucial fundamental factor that should fuel the dollar's growth. The key point is that the European Central Bank's interest rates are set to decrease as soon as next month, while the Federal Reserve's rates are not expected to change anytime soon. In addition, market participants are no longer impressed by the European economy's performance. Therefore, we believe that the pair's current growth is illogical. However, we shouldn't expect a downtrend when the price has not consolidated below the ascending channel.EUR/USD on 5M chart Despite the modest amount of volatility, two good and accurate trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe. Initially, the pair bounced off the level of 1.0888, and then off the level of 1.0856. Since the distance between these levels is only 32 pips, the profit from the trades could not have been high. Nevertheless, in the face of low volatility, beginners managed to earn around 20-25 pips, which is also quite good.Trading tips on Friday:On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair continues to correct higher, which is increasingly resembling an independent trend. We believe that the decline should resume in the medium term, as the euro remains expensive, and the overall trend is downward. The fundamental background still supports the US dollar, and the inflation report for April will not change the Fed's stance.On Friday, novice traders can continue to look for buy signals around the area of 1.0838-1.0856. If the price consolidates below this area, then it may continue to fall towards 1.0785-1.0797.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0725-1.0733, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. On Friday, we can only highlight the second estimate of the Eurozone inflation report for April. However, this report is of secondary importance. The US event calendar is empty.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 17. Simple tips for beginners

May 16, 2024 | 21:46 pm

Analyzing Thursday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart GBP/USD also started a small bearish correction, but the upward trend remains intact. In fact, the dollar was quite lucky it didn't fall even more on Thursday. The US released several insignificant reports, and they turned out to be weaker than forecasts. Therefore, the dollar had grounds to fall on Thursday. On the other hand, there was no reason for the greenback to drop as much when the US inflation report was published. The CPI matched the forecasts, and inflation barely eased, so the report doesn't imply that the Federal Reserve will immediately begin to discuss rate cuts. We also want to remind you that the UK economy has hardly grown in the last two years. Unemployment in the UK is also increasing, as it is in the US. Therefore, it is also not possible to say that the dollar is declining due to weaker data.GBP/USD on 5M chart Two quite decent trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe. Firstly, the pair bounced off the level of 1.2691 and hit the nearest target at the level of 1.2648. Then, there was a rebound from the level of 1.2648, resulting in a rise of about 15 pips. Therefore, beginners could have made a small profit on both trades. We couldn't expect a higher profit when volatility was weak.Trading tips on Friday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has great prospects for forming a downward trend, but the bullish correction remains intact. The fundamental backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. The economic reports often fail to support the pound, but the market practically interprets all the news in favor of the British currency.If we are talking about logical movements, then we expect the pound to fall on Friday. At the current stage, the upward movement seems to have stalled, so today we can expect a continuation of the downward retracement if the price breaches the level of 1.2648.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2541-1.2547, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. Today, there are no important events planned in the UK and the US, so there will be nothing to analyze. Most likely, we're in for another low-volatility day, and the market will probably try to extend the correction.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Industrial production. Switzerland, 08:30 (GMT+2)

May 16, 2024 | 21:30 pm

At 08:30 (GMT+2), Swiss Q1 data on industrial production is due, which reflect changes in the volume of output of industrial goods and utilities in the country, taking into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electricity sector. It may continue its downward trend from the current −0.40% YoY, putting pressure on the franc. Read more

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 17, 2024

May 16, 2024 | 20:15 pm

EUR/USDAfter a sharp rise on Wednesday, the euro retreated by 16 pips the next day. This morning, it continues to show a corrective decline (following the preceding three days of growth). The single currency shows a common feature with the S&P 500: the euro did not quite reach the target level of 1.0905, which gives the impression that it might still hit this level before it starts a significant bearish reversal. In a similar case, the S&P 500 just missed the upper boundary of its ascending price channel at 5355.00, as it fell short by 1.00%. In two days, both the euro and the S&P 500 could reach their respective target levels and then synchronously turn downward.If the euro drops below the support at 1.0796, which is near the MACD line, it is almost impossible for it to rise further, and the price will start working on a medium-term decline.On the 4-hour chart, the price is approaching the MACD indicator line. The first sign of the end of the upward movement and the euro's refusal to rise to 1.0905 will be a break below this MACD line around the 1.0828 mark.The Marlin oscillator is already close to moving into negative territory, so to prevent a strong bearish reinforcement, it could sharply rise to 1.0905. If the price quickly overcomes this resistance, it might continue to rise towards the next target at 1.0943 (the March 21 high), and wait for a stock market reversal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on May 17, 2024

May 16, 2024 | 20:14 pm

USD/JPYThe USD/JPY pair unexpectedly fell by 270 pips over two days and yesterday's lower shadow hit the support of the MACD line on the daily chart at the point of intersection with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Afterwards, it also swiftly moved upward.This morning, the pair broke above the 155.75 level, and the Marlin oscillator returned to positive territory. The next target is the 50.0% Fibonacci level. The price has a good chance of breaching this level, and it will continue to rise towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 157.00.We expect the price to fall to 146.50, so it is crucial to cautiously monitor the pair's upward movement, since a reversal could happen when the price breaches any level, whether it be a Fibonacci level or a target level, though not a strong one, at 158.00.On the 4-hour chart, the price has almost consolidated above the MACD indicator line, has risen above the 155.75 level, and is approaching 156.03. The Marlin oscillator is trying to enter the positive territory. A bullish trend in the short term. We expect the price to hit the targets of 156.03 and 157.00.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 17, 2024

May 16, 2024 | 20:14 pm

GBP/USDYesterday, the British pound slightly declined, closing the day with a black candle for the first time in five days. The rise that we saw in the last five days was quite significant, about two figures. Therefore, traders may repeat corrective attempts to break through the MACD line at the 1.2642 level, the first of which failed yesterday.Until the price consolidates below the MACD line, it is inclined to rise towards the target level of 1.2745, even if it doesn't reach this mark.On the 4-hour chart, the price is staying above the 1.2642 level, but the Marlin oscillator continues to approach the boundary of the bearish territory, supporting the possibility of subsequent attempts to overcome the MACD line on the daily timeframe.In addition, it is worth noting that the MACD line on the four-hour chart may soon be in between the 1.2596 and 1.2642 levels. Therefore, we can only consider a price reversal to a medium-term downtrend once it falls below 1.2596.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Industrial production. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

May 16, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2), China will publish April industrial production data, which will reflect changes in the volume of output of goods and utilities in the country. The calculation of the indicator considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may increase from 4.5% to 5.4% YoY, supporting the yuan. Read more

Retail sales. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

May 16, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2), April data on retail sales will be presented in China. The indicator records the monthly volume of all goods retailers sold, based on a sample of stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on gross domestic product (GDP). It is likely to adjust from 3.1% to 3.9% YoY. Read more

Unemployment rate. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

May 16, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2) April data on the unemployment rate is due in China. This indicator records the percentage of registered unemployed people over 18 years to the total working-age population. The figure may remain at 5.2%. Read more

Producer purchasing price index. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)

May 16, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:45 (GMT+2) in New Zealand, Q1 data on the producer price index is due – one of the key inflation indicators that measures the average change in prices for goods and services purchased by companies. The value may drop from 0.9% to 0.6%. Read more

EURUSD traders play the technical levels on the corrective move lower today. What next?

May 16, 2024 | 12:57 pm

In the kickstart video today (CLICK HERE), I spoke to the corrective move lower in the EURUSD and what needed to happen to either give the sellers more control, or keep the buyers in control. More specifically, I spoke to the 5-minute chart below, showed how the 100/200 bar MAs were holding resistance once broken and also spoke to the retracement levels below that needed to be broken to increase the sellers momentum. What happened?The 50% midpoint of the move up from yesterday held support. That gave the buyers the go-ahead to push higher. However, although the 100 bar MA was broken on the move back higher (see blue line) the 200 bar MA held and the price has rotated lower.SO into the new day, the moving averages remain topside resistance that if broken would give buyers more confidence. Conversely if the moving average cannot be broken, getting below the 38.2 – 50% retracement levels would give the sellers more confidence. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURCHF is testing a key topside target area that you may want to know about.

May 16, 2024 | 12:12 pm

The EURCHF is trading higher and in the process is testing a key technical area that you might be interested in. What makes it so important? In this video I will tell you why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NZDUSD corrects lower today, but buyers trying to resume more control

May 16, 2024 | 10:00 am

The NZDUSD traded sharply higher yesterday helped by a risk on sentiment, and more bullish technical breaks. More specifically, the price moved above its 100-day moving average currently at 0.60786. The price also moved above a key swing area between 0.6078 and 0.60856. That area was home to several swing lows and swing highs going back to November 2023 (see red arrows on the chart below). Momentum to the upside has increased after the breaks above those levels yesterday.Today there has been more corrective price action to the downside. However, the low price stalled comfortably above the aforementioned levels including the 100-day moving average and swing area.Going forward, the 50% retracement is a key level that would need to be broken and stay broken, to increase the bullish bias going forward. The current price is back above those levels, tilting the bias more to the upside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY moves back to 100/200 hour MAs

May 16, 2024 | 09:29 am

The USDJPY fell sharply in the Asian session after breaking below a swing area at 154.778 and 154.878. The fall saw the price move to and through another target area near 153.99 (call it 154.00). The low-price extended down to 153.595 before starting its rebound to the upside. That rebound saw the price initially move to the low of the aforementioned swing area near 154.77 and 154.878. Buyers later took the price with more momentum.That last one and take the price back above eight 200-hour moving out of 155.38 and through the 50% of the move lower this week (at 155.173). Those two levels are now close barometers for both buyers and sellers. Moving below 155.17 would be more bearish in the short term. Moving above the 200-hour moving out at 155.38 would be more bullish.On topside, the 100-day moving average comes in at 155.721. That would be a target to get to and through on more momentum.A move below the 155.17 would have traders looking back toward the swing area near 154.80.The battle lines are drawn. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD corrects to the downside today but stays above a support area

May 16, 2024 | 08:05 am

The AUDUSD moved sharply higher yesterday helped by risk-on sentiment. The pair extended above the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the December high at 0.66759, and also a swing area up to 0.66896. However, momentum faded in the Asia-Pacific session today, and the price rotated back below that 61.8% retracement level.The move lower, took the price back down toward an old ceiling (see red number circles on the chart below) that was broken during yesterday's trade. If the pair is going to keep its more bullish bias, staying above that area is key today and going forward.Be aware. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD rebounds in trading today. Moves back toward 100 hour MA near 1.3650.

May 16, 2024 | 07:18 am

The USDCAD fell sharply yesterday, and in the process tested the 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the December low. Animal came in at 1.35899 and that was where the price decline stalled. In trading today, the price also tested that moving average in the early Asian session and found support buyers. Sellers turned buyers and have pushed the price to the upside. What next?There is some resistance near the 1.3650 level where the following 100-hour moving average is found. Just above that is a swing area between 1.3654 and 1.3668. Those levels would need to be broken to further increase the buying momentum.In this video above, talk about the technicals in play for the USDCAD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Euro edges lower after ECB’s financial stability warning

May 16, 2024 | 07:09 am

The euro has posted slight losses on Thursday. EUR/USD is down 0.20%, trading at 1.0860 in the North American session at the time of writing. ECB warns of risks to financial stability The ECB’s Financial Stability Review expressed concern that financial stability could be affected by the possibility of “adverse economic and financial surprises”. Geopolitical […]

USDCHF bounces higher after run lower yesterday failed on a break of a floor. What next?

May 16, 2024 | 06:34 am

The USDCHF fell sharply yesterday, and in the process fell below a three area for between 0.8997 and 0.9005. When that break of the floor failed, sellers turned to buyers and have pushed the price higher in trading today. The price is currently testing a topside swing area. What next? Find out by watching the above video technical review. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/TRY Forecast: Lira Holds Steady

May 16, 2024 | 06:33 am

The USD/TRY pair maintained its limited movements, stabilizing within a descending triangle pattern on the four-hour time frame, as shown in the chart.

EUR/USD Analysis: Market in an Upward Channel

May 16, 2024 | 06:24 am

The EUR/USD currency pair has risen to a resistance level of 1.0895, the highest level in nearly two months, as expectations of a convergence in monetary policy between the US and Europe grow.

USD/JPY steady as Japanese economy contracts

May 16, 2024 | 06:22 am

The Japanese yen climbed as much as 0.85% earlier on Thursday but has pared most of those gains. USD/JPY is trading at 155.38, up 0.31% in the European session. Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter. GDP declined by 2% y/y in the first quarter, following a revised 0% reading in Q4 2023. This was […]

USDCAD Technical Analysis – The first breakout attempt fails

May 16, 2024 | 06:15 am

Fundamental OverviewYesterday, the USD weakened across the board following a benign US CPI report where the data came in line with expectations. The market firmed up the rate cuts expectations with September and December now fully priced in. We saw a general risk-on sentiment as a result and barring negative surprises in the following days and weeks, this trend might have some more legs. Today’s US jobless claims data don’t change the picture, on the contrary, they might reaffirm the positive sentiment. USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD failed to sustain the breakout below the key support zone around the 1.36 handle. This support has been a tough nut to crack, so the sellers will want to see the price falling back below the zone to increase their conviction and target a drop into the 1.34 handle next. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely keep on piling in around these levels as they have a defined risk to reward setup with the target standing around the cycle highs. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the downtrend on this timeframe. The sellers might want to lean on the trendline to position for a break below the support with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the cycle highs. Upcoming CatalystsWe don’t have any other noteworthy catalyst for this week, so the markets will likely follow the path of least resistance set by the US CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Kickstart the FX trading day for May 16 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

May 16, 2024 | 06:13 am

The USD moved sharply lower yesterday after the data dump including CPI, retail sales, and New York manufacturing. All were weaker than expectations. Today the data was a little less dovish. That - along with corrective price action - has a US dollar moving higher.In this video take a look at the technicals that are driving the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What does the price action tell us. What would increase the dollar corrective move? What would give dollar sellers confidence that the correction today is over (or not)?Find out in the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Analysis: Selling Pressure Exposure

May 16, 2024 | 06:12 am

For the second consecutive day, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading under selling pressure, pushing it towards the support level of 153.59 this morning.

The USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins

May 16, 2024 | 05:14 am

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD has rebounded in trading today (modestly admittedly) after the sharp fall yesterday on the back of the weaker/softer data including CPI, retail sales, NY Manufacturing index. Overnight in the Asia-Pacific session, Japan GDP (lower growth and higher prices) and Australian employment data (mixed) was released.Prelim GDP q/q: Actual -0.5% (Forecast -0.3%, Previous 0.1%)Prelim GDP Price Index y/y: Actual 3.6% (Forecast 3.3%, Previous 3.9%)Australian Jobs DataEmployment Change: Actual 38.5K (Forecast 22.4K, Previous -5.9K Unemployment rate: Actual 4.1% (Forecast 3.9%, Previous 3.9%)There has been a lot of commentary from ECB officials today. ECB policymaker Pablo Hernandez de Cos stated that all indicators point toward a first rate cut in June, reaffirming what is widely anticipated. Despite earlier ECB statements about waiting for Q1 wages data at the end of the month, the expectation of a June rate cut remains strong. De Cos's comments align with the prevailing sentiment that a rate cut is imminent, reflecting confidence in the indicators supporting this decision.Later, ECB's Centeno emphasized that monetary policy decisions are made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, reflecting the institution's adaptive approach to economic conditions. There is a prevailing expectation among stakeholders that interest rate cuts will commence in June, driven by the observed and sustained decrease in inflation. Centeno expresses a preference for a gradual approach to these rate cuts, aiming to balance economic stability and growth.Finally, ECB's Kazaks stated that rate cuts should be gradual and are best implemented during quarterly meetings when projections are released. He expressed relative comfort with the market's current pricing of rate cuts, indicating no need to disrupt these expectations. Kazaks affirmed that conditions for a June rate cut are present, suggesting that only a significant economic surprise could prevent the ECB from proceeding with the planned adjustment.In the US, New York Fed President John Williams commented that there is no immediate need for a rate cut or a rate hike. He noted that April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is a positive development for inflation dynamics and that the overall trend of slowing inflation looks favorable. However, he remains cautious, as he is not yet confident that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target. Williams described current monetary policy as restrictive but appropriate, and observed that while the job market remains tight, some of its excesses are diminishing.BoE's Greene noted that inflation persistence has decreased since she joined the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last July. She emphasized that the burden of proof should lie in the continued waning of inflation persistence. Greene highlighted that upcoming data, released before the June meeting, will provide a clearer indication of the MPC's progress. She also observed that while excess labor hoarding has diminished from its peak, it still poses a two-sided risk to the economic outlook.There have been some key earnings releases this morning:Under Armour Inc (UAA) Q1 2024:Adjusted EPS: $0.11 (Expected: $0.08) BeatRevenue: $1.33 billion (Expected: $1.33 billion) MetWalmart Inc (WMT) Q1 2024:Adjusted EPS: $0.60 (Expected: $0.52) BeatRevenue: $161.51 billion (Expected: $159.52 billion) BeatTotal US Comp sales ex gas: +3.9% (Expected: +3.42%) BeatQ2 Adjusted EPS view: $0.62-0.65 (Expected: $0.64) MixedDeere & Co (DE) Q2 2024:EPS: $8.53 (Expected: $7.86) BeatRevenue: $15.24 billion (Expected: $13.28 billion) BeatFY Net forecast: ~$7.4 billion (Previously guided: $7.5-7.7 billion) MixedProfit forecast cut on a demand slowdown Negative OutlookJD.Com Inc (JD) Q1 2024:EPS: $0.78 (Expected: $0.64) BeatRevenue: $36.00 billion (Expected: $35.66 billion) BeatToday, the weekly US jobless claim data will highlight the economic calendar:8:30am (USD)Unemployment Claims: Actual 219K (Forecast 231K)Building Permits: Actual 1.48M (Forecast 1.46M)Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Actual 7.7 (Forecast 15.5)Housing Starts: Actual 1.42M (Forecast 1.32M)Import Prices m/m: Actual 0.2% (Forecast 0.4%)9:15am (USD)Industrial Production m/m: Actual 0.1% (Forecast 0.4%)Capacity Utilization Rate: Actual 78.4% (Forecast 78.4%)Fedspeak includes Fed Gov. Barr (10 AM ET), Cleveland Fed Pres. Mester (12 PM ET) and Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic.(3:50 PM ET). A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins has oil higher, gold near unchanged. Bitcoin remains above $66K after surging yesterday on risk-on sentiment:Crude oil is trading up $0.14 or 0.18% at $78.77. At this time yesterday, the price was at $77.51Gold is trading down $1.61 or -0.06% at $2384.50. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2361.20Silver is trading up two cents or 0.09% at $29.65. At this time yesterday, the price was at $28.75Bitcoin currently trades at $66,581. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,442, but moved sharply higher on risk-on flows.In the premarket, the major indices are little changed. Yesterday the Dow industrial average, S&P index, and NASDAQ index all closed at record levels.Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 20.02 points. Yesterday, the index rose 349.89 points or 0.88% at 39908.01S&P futures are implying a gain of 3.85 points. Yesterday the index rose 61.45 points or 1.17% at 5308.14Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of 22.85 points. Yesterday the index rose 231.21 points or 1.40% at 16742.39European stock indices are trading mixed after Germany, France, UK closed at record levels yesterday,German DAX, -0.27%France CAC , -0.43%UK FTSE 100, +0.06%Spain's Ibex, +0.02%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.23% (delayed 10 minutes).Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were higher after the strong gains in the US yesterday:Japan's Nikkei 225, +1.29%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.08%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +1.59%Australia S&P/ASX index, was 1.65%Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower:2-year yield 4.748%, +1.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.782%5-year yield 4.353%, -0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.418%10-year yield 4.332%, -2.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.412%30-year yield 4.479%, -3.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.568%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads:The 2-10 year spread is at -41.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -37.1 basis points.The 2-30 year spread is at -27.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at[…]

GBP/USD Analysis: Caution Advised Near Overbought Levels

May 16, 2024 | 05:07 am

Amidst a weakening US dollar, the GBP/USD currency pair surged to a resistance level of 1.2700 this morning, Thursday.

Gold Analysis: Rebound Towards $2,400 Resistance

May 16, 2024 | 04:58 am

Gold prices surged near the key psychological resistance of $2,400 per ounce (oz) today, trading at their highest level in nearly a month.

Australian dollar surges after US inflation ease

May 16, 2024 | 04:52 am

The Australian dollar is lower on Thursday after surging 1% a day earlier. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6671, down 0.33% on the day. Australian job growth rebounds but unemployment rate rises Australian employment bounced back in April with an increase of 38,500 after a decline of 5,900 in March and higher than the market […]

Industrial Production. USA, 15:15 (GMT+2)

May 16, 2024 | 04:15 am

At 15:15 (GMT+2), the data on industrial production for April will be published in the US. Industrial Production gauges the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output manufacturers, quarries, and utilities produced. The indicator takes into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the power industry. The value is expected to adjust from 0.4% to 0.2% MoM. The implementation of the forecast may put pressure on the US dollar. Read more

US Dollar Testing Resistance: Forecasts for USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

May 16, 2024 | 03:32 am

The US Dollar has bounced back firmly since Tokyo opened today, after making a low at 103.67.

Housing Starts. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2) in the USA, April data on the number of new houses, the construction of which began in the reporting month, will be presented. It is one of the most important indicators of the American construction market. The value is projected to grow from 1.321 million to 1.410 million. The implementation of the forecast may support the quotes of the US currency. Read more

Building Permits. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), April data on the number of building permits issued will be published in the United States. The indicator records the monthly change in the number of applications issued by the US government for the construction of real estate, and is one of the most important indicators of the construction sector. It is expected that the value will adjust from 1.467 million to 1.480 million, supporting the US dollar exchange rate. Read more

Initial Jobless Claims. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on Initial Jobless Claims in the USA will be released. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the past week. These data are collected by the Department of Labor and published in a weekly report. Initial Jobless Claims indicator is used to measure the state of the labor market, since an increase in the indicator means that fewer people are hired. A correction is expected from 231.0 thousand to 220.0 thousand. Read more

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Retreating from Yesterday’s 4-Month High

May 16, 2024 | 02:13 am

Asian session sees selloff after bullish move.

GBP/USD Forecast: Driving Toward Resistance

May 16, 2024 | 01:54 am

The British pound has rallied significantly in the early hours on Wednesday, but now is facing a major resistance barrier against the greenback.

USD/PKR Analysis: Search for Correlation and Speculative Price Action

May 16, 2024 | 01:49 am

Tuesday’s trading in the USD/PKR produced a low around the 277.9000 ratio briefly.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – Next target 1.10?

May 16, 2024 | 01:48 am

Fundamental OverviewYesterday, the USD weakened across the board following a benign US CPI report where the data came in line with expectations. The market firmed up the rate cuts expectations with September and December now fully priced in. We saw a general risk-on sentiment as a result and barring negative surprises in the following days and weeks, this trend might have some more legs. On the EUR side, nothing has changed. The ECB speakers continue to confirm the first rate cut in June but don’t over-commit on the timing for the following rate cuts. The market expects three rate cuts this year, which is in line with the ECB members’ comments. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD yesterday surged into the 1.09 handle following the US CPI report. We are now seeing a rejection from the key swing level, which is totally normal after such a strong rally. The trend remains firmly bullish as the price keeps on printing higher highs and higher lows. The sellers will need the price to fall below the 1.0727 level to invalidate the bullish case and take back control. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the rejection from the 1.09 handle. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 1.0820 level where they will find the confluence of the trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If the positive sentiment were to continue though and the price were to break above the 1.09 handle before pulling back to the support zone, the buyers will likely pile in anyway to target an extension into the 1.10 handle. Upcoming CatalystsToday the US Jobless Claims figures will take the centre stage as the market will want to see if the last week’s numbers were the start of a trend or just a blip. See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/CHF Forecast: Shorting is Impossible

May 16, 2024 | 01:48 am

You can see that we initially pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Wednesday in the British pound against the Swiss franc pair but have also turned around to show signs of life.

USD/ILS Analysis: Sudden Return to Lower Values and Important Support

May 16, 2024 | 01:36 am

The USD/ILS has traded lower and is touching values last seen in early April.

S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to Power Higher

May 16, 2024 | 01:07 am

The S&P 500 rallied rather significantly during the course of the session on Wednesday, as we are now threatening to break an all-time high.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Breakout or fakeout?

May 16, 2024 | 01:02 am

Fundamental OverviewYesterday, the USD weakened across the board following a benign US CPI report where the data came in line with expectations. The market firmed up the rate cuts expectations with September and December now fully priced in. We saw a general risk-on sentiment as a result and barring negative surprises in the following days and weeks, this trend might have some more legs. The AUD, on the other hand, came a bit under pressure following the Australian labour market data tonight but this might be just a dip-buying opportunity for the bulls as the risk sentiment and general US Dollar weakness should support the pair into new highs. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD yesterday finally broke above the key resistance zone around the 0.6650 level following the US CPI report. The technical trend remains bullish as the price continues to print higher highs and higher lows. The support from the benign US CPI figures and the breakout should see the buyers piling in to position for a rally into the 0.6870 level. A break below the trendline should invalidate the bullish case and see the sellers taking control. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price pulled back tonight following the disappointing Australian jobs data. We are now near the minor trendline and the resistance-turned-support. This is where the buyers will likely pile in with a defined risk below the support zone and position for a rally into the 0.6870 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the support to start stepping in and increase the bearish bets in case the price falls below the major trendline around the 0.66 handle. Upcoming CatalystsToday the US Jobless Claims figures will take the centre stage as the market will want to see if the last week’s numbers were the start of a trend or just a blip. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Silver Forecast: Is Silver Running Out of Steam?

May 16, 2024 | 00:56 am

Silver initially shot higher during the trading session on Wednesday but has given back quite a bit of the gains as we tried to break out.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Continues to See Upwards Pressure

May 16, 2024 | 00:42 am

The NASDAQ 100 rallied on Wednesday again, as momentum continues to be a major influence in this market.

USD/MXN Forecast: Overhead Resistance

May 16, 2024 | 00:40 am

The US dollar initially trying to rally a bit during the Wednesday session but has since been repudiated by the Mexican peso.

CAC Forex Signal: Buyers on Dips

May 16, 2024 | 00:31 am

The Parisian CAC initially pulled back during the early hours on Wednesday but has found buyers underneath to turn things around and pressure to the €8,250 level.

DAX Forecast: Continues to Power Higher

May 16, 2024 | 00:26 am

The German DAX has rallied again during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to make fresh highs every day.

CHF/JPY Forecast: Franc Strong Against Yen

May 16, 2024 | 00:17 am

The Swiss franc fell rather hard against the Japanese yen during early trading on Wednesday but has seen a little bit of a push back near the ¥171.50 level.

AUD/USD Forecast: Australian Dollar Fails at Resistance

May 16, 2024 | 00:12 am

The Australian dollar shot straight up in the air during the early hours on Wednesday but has given back quite a bit of the gains .

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Bullish Momentum Gains Steam

May 15, 2024 | 23:59 pm

The GBP/USD bullish momentum continued this week as it jumped to its highest swing since April 10th after the mixed US economic reports.

Industrial Production. Japan, 06:30 (GMT+2)

May 15, 2024 | 19:30 pm

At 06:30 (GMT+2), Japan will publish March data on industrial production, which reflects the number of manufactured goods and utilities in the country, taking into account the manufacturing and extractive industries, as well as the electric power industry. A correction from -0.6% to 3.8% is predicted, which, in turn, may support the yen exchange rate. Read more

Employment Change. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

May 15, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), April employment data will be published in Australia, recording the change in the number of employed citizens. The indicator is projected to grow from -6.6 thousand to 25.3 thousand. If the forecast proves to be true, it may support the Australian currency. Read more

Unemployment Rate. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

May 15, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), April unemployment data will be published in Australia, which records the percentage of the number of registered unemployed citizens over the age of 18 to the total working-age population. The indicator is expected to adjust 3.8% to 3.9%. Read more

Gross Domestic Product. Japan, 01:50 (GMT+2)

May 15, 2024 | 14:50 pm

At 01:50 (GMT+2), data on Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2024 will be presented. It is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy, which takes into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. The value is expected to decrease from 0.1% to -0.4% QoQ and from 0.4% to -1.5% YoY, while the deflator will drop from 3.9% to 3.3%. If the forecast proves right, the yen may fall under pressure. Read more

NZDUSD runs higher as risk on flows send the pair higher. Lower yields. Higher stocks.

May 15, 2024 | 12:40 pm

The NZDUSD is racing higher today as "risk-on" flows = Buy NZDUSD (at least today). Technically, the price moved back above the 100 day MA at 0.6088 and then the 50% of the move down from the December 2023 high at 0.6109. Those levels are now close risk levels for buyers. Staying above give the buyers the control. It would take a move below each of those levels to tilt the bias back to the downside (and disappoint the buyers on the breaks higher). Buyers making a play. How much can they now take the pair to the upside? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

All three major US indices on pace for record closing levels

May 15, 2024 | 11:33 am

The move to the upside continues and the major indices are not on pace to all close at record levels today.Dow record high close coming into the day was at 39807.38. The index is up 274 points at 39832 currently. Both the Nasdaq and S&P closed at record levels yesterday. ANything positive today would be a new record close.S&P is up 56.29 points or 1.07 % at 5302.60Nasdaq is up 223 points or 1.35% at 16733.09For the trading year: Dow Industrial Average is up 5.69%.S&P index is up 11.15%NASDAQ index is up 11.44%Yields are lower today with the 2-year down -7.8 basis points at 4.740%. The 10-year yield is down -8.9 basis points at 4.355%.Looking at the 10-year yield below, it is trading at its lows levels going back to April 10, and at session lows today, the yield tested its key 200-day moving average of 4.333% (see green line on the chart below). A move below that moving average level would be the first decline below the level since April 1. The low 10-year yield for 2024 was at 3.817% reached on February 1, 2024.The US 10 year rate is instrumental in setting the 30 year US mortgage rate. The 30 year mortgage rate in the weekly mortgage data released earlier today came in at 7.08% down from 7.18% last week. Looking at the chart below, that rate is still above the highs prior to the more recent move higher over the last few years near 7.00%. The high range from 2005 to 2008 was between 5.5% and 7.0%.Meanwhile in Europe today,:Germans Dax closed at a record high levelFrance CAC, closed at a record high levelUK FTSE 100 closed at a record high levelSpain's Ibex closed at the highest level since July 2015Italy's FTSE MIB closed at a record level This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Update technical look at the EURUSD as the price stretches to new session highs

May 15, 2024 | 10:05 am

The EURUSD is stretching to a new session high and in the process:Successfully moved away from its 100 day moving average of 1.08235,Moved above it 61.8% retracement of the move down from the March high at 1.08354Stretches toward the next swing area between 1.0875 and 1.0887.The technical swing area may give the buyer some cause for pause/profit taking potential. If the price installs against the level, could be a rotation back down toward the 100 day moving average over time. The price moves above 1.0887, traders can get back in from the long side.The US data was weaker today across the board and that gave the inflation hawks some cause for pause. However, the ECB is on track to cut rates sooner than the Fed. That may help to limit the upside at least for the time being.Feds Kashkari spoke as how the Fed is likely to stand pat for the time being. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY jumps as US inflation drops more than expected

May 15, 2024 | 07:14 am

The Japanese yen has posted gains on Wednesday. The yen gained as much as 1% but has given up about half of those losses on the day. At the time of writing in the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.73, up 0.45%. US dollar slips as US CPI drops to 0.4% US headline […]

EIA crude oil reserves. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)

May 15, 2024 | 05:30 am

At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present a weekly report containing data on changes in the volumes of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the country. A correction is expected from the current −1.362M barrels to −1.430M barrels, which may support the quotes of “black gold.” Read more

Euro steady after mixed eurozone data, US CPI next

May 15, 2024 | 04:31 am

The euro is drifting on Wednesday. EUR/USD is down 0.04%, trading at 1.0825 in the European session at the time of writing. Eurozone GDP rises, industrial production eases The eurozone economy rebounded in the first quarter. GDP rose 0.3% q/q, up from -0.1% in the first quarter. Annually, GDP grew 0.4%, up from 0.1% in […]

EUR/USD – USD/JPY – USD/CAD Technical Analysis Overview ahead of US CPI and Retail Sales

May 15, 2024 | 03:58 am

Talking Points US Consumer Price Index – US CPI US Retail Sales EUR/USD Daily Chart – Technical Analysis USD/JPY Daily Chart – Technical Analysis USD/CAD Weekly Chart – Technical Analysis US Consumer Price Index – US CPI The core CPI, which excludes Energy and food products, came in at 3.8% in March, slightly higher than […]

Gold Technical: Stagflation risk and a softer US 10-year Treasury real yield are supporting the bulls

May 15, 2024 | 03:36 am

Stagflation risk has led to a softer US 10-year Treasury real yield below 2.38%. The 6% decline of Gold (XAU/USD) from its recent all-time high in April may have reached an inflection point to kickstart another potential medium-term impulsive bullish sequence. Watch the key short-term support of US$2,327 on Gold (XAU/USD). This is a follow-up […]

Consumer price index. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 15, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), April data on the consumer price index is due in the United States. It is the main indicator of inflation in the country, which reflects changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on. It has a significant influence on the decisions of the country’s financial regulator on monetary policy. It may settle at 0.4% MoM and fall from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY, while the core value may correct from 0.4% to 0.3% MoM and from 3.8% to 3.6% YoY. Read more

Retail sales. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 15, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), April data on retail sales is due in the United States. The indicator captures the volume of all goods retailers sold, based on a sample of stores of different types and sizes, and is an important indicator of consumer spending with a significant impact on gross domestic product (GDP). The value may adjust from 0.7% to 0.4% in April, while the core indicator may adjust from 1.1% to 0.2%. Read more

Housing starts. Canada, 14:15 (GMT+2)

May 15, 2024 | 03:15 am

At 14:15 (GMT+2), in Canada, April data on the number of new houses, the construction of which began in the reporting month, is due. It is one of the most important indicators of the national construction market. It may fall from 242.2K to 232.0K, putting pressure on the Canadian dollar. Read more

Australian dollar higher, wage growth dips lower

May 15, 2024 | 03:13 am

The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Wednesday. AUD/USD is up 0.24%, trading at 0.6642 in the European session at the time of writing. Has Australia’s wage growth peaked? Australian wages rose less than expected in the first quarter, a sign that inflationary pressures may be easing. The wage price index rose 0.8% q/q […]

Employment changes. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 15, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), EU data on changes in employment levels is due. This indicator records changes in the number of employed citizens and is a key indicator of the national labor market. It may increase from 1.2% to 1.3% YoY and consolidate at 0.3% QoQ, supporting the euro. Read more

Industrial production. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 15, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), March EU data on the industrial production volume is due, which reflect changes in the volume of production of industrial goods and utilities in the country, taking into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electricity sector. MoM, the figure may correct 0.8% to –0.3%, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

Gross domestic product. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 15, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), data on the EU Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) is due – the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy and taking into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. It is likely that the figure will be consolidated at 0.4% YoY and will increase from 0.0% to 0.3% QoQ. Read more

API crude oil stocks. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

May 14, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillates volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) is due. The last time statistics recorded a correction to 0.509M barrels of crude oil, and the continuation of this trend may support oil quotes. Read more

AUD/USD gains ground ahead of wage growth

May 14, 2024 | 07:56 am

The Australian dollar has posted gains on Tuesday. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6620 in the North American session at the time of writing. Australian wage growth expected to remain unchanged Australia’s wage growth for the first quarter is expected to remain unchanged. Wages rose 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the highest […]

EUR/USD steady as German confidence index rises

May 14, 2024 | 05:16 am

The euro is drifting on Tuesday. EUR/USD is up 0.07% on Tuesday, trading at 1.0798 in the European session at the time of writing. German inflation steady, confidence higher Germany’s inflation rate remained unchanged in April at 2.2% y/y, matching the market consensus. Services inflation slowed but this was offset by higher food prices. Monthly, […]

US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 14, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the head of the US Fed System (US Fed) Jerome Powell will give a speech. The official can share his vision of the current situation in the American economy against ongoing geopolitical tensions and hint at the regulator’s further actions in the field of monetary policy. Read more

A steeper JGB yield curve may kickstart another bullish leg in the Nikkei 225

May 14, 2024 | 04:16 am

Nikkei 225 has undergone a 4-week corrective decline of 10.6% since its 41,088 all-time high printed on 22 March. Nikkei 225 major uptrend phase in place since 4 January 2023 remains intact. BoJ’s recent announcement on its reduction of 5 to 10-year JGBs purchases has led to a spiked up in JGBs yields that implied […]

Pound edges lower as UK labor market cools

May 14, 2024 | 03:37 am

The British pound has posted slight losses on Tuesday. GBP/USD is down 0.08%, trading at 1.2548 in the European session at the time of writing. UK job growth slides The UK labor market continues to show cracks as job growth was sharply lower in today’s employment report. The economy shed 178,000 jobs in the three […]

Producer price index. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 14, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), April data on the US producer price index is due. The indicator reflects changes in the price of goods at the wholesale level (raw materials, semi-finished products, and final goods are taken into account). Increasing prices for producers contributes to the growth of consumer inflation in the region. It may change from 0.2% to 0.3% MoM and from 2.1% to 2.2% YoY, while the core rate will drop from 2.4% to 2.3% YoY and consolidate at 0.2% MoM. Read more

ZEW economic conditions. Germany, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 14, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), the May index of current economic conditions in Germany from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) is due. The indicator reflects the prevailing sentiment among financial analysts in Germany, and the subject of the study is the most important indicators: inflation, interest rates, stock indices, exchange rates, and oil prices. It may continue its negative trend from −79.2 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

ZEW economic sentiment. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 14, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), the May sentiment index in EU business circles from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) is due. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of institutional investors and analysts who are optimistic and pessimistic. The index may rise from 42.9 points to 44.9 points, supporting the euro. Read more

Producer price index. Switzerland, 08:30 (GMT+2)

May 13, 2024 | 21:30 pm

At 08:30 (GMT+2), April data on the producer price index in Switzerland will be presented. The indicator records changes in the cost of goods, components, and raw materials on the wholesale market and is one of the most important indicators of inflation. It may grow from 0.1% to 0.2% MoM, supporting the franc. Read more

Employment change. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 13, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the UK will publish March employment data for the previous three-month period. This indicator records changes in the number of employed citizens in the country. A decrease from –156.0K will put pressure on the pound. Read more

Claimant count change. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 13, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), April data on changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits is due in the UK. The indicator measures the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given month. The indicator may correct from the current 10.9K to 13.9K. The implementation of the forecast may put pressure on the pound. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – US CPI , Fed Speak from Powell, China retail sales and industrial production looms

May 13, 2024 | 17:36 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, after a slew of Fed Speak from officials Bowman, Daly, Bostic, Collins, Kashkari, and Barkin last week that erred towards a “higher-for-longer” approach in terms of the direction of the Fed funds rate; for this week, […]

Japanese yen under pressure, BoJ trims bond purchases

May 13, 2024 | 08:25 am

The Japanese yen has edged lower on Monday. USD/JPY is up 0.26% on the day and is trading at 156.17 at the time of writing. The yen is coming off a rough week, in which it fell 1.8% against the US dollar. BoJ cuts Japanese government bonds purchases The Bank of Japan started the week […]

GBP/USD higher with eye on employment report

May 13, 2024 | 05:04 am

The British pound is slightly higher on Monday. GBP/USD is up 0.20%, trading at 1.2549 in the European session at the time of writing. UK job growth expected to slide The UK labor market has held up well despite high interest rates but cracks have appeared and Tuesday’s job report is expected to be soft. […]

NZ dollar edges lower as inflation expectations fall

May 13, 2024 | 02:04 am

The New Zealand dollar has edged lower on Monday. NZD/USD is down 0.17% on the day, trading at 0.6009 in the European session at the time of writing. NZ inflation expectations ease to 2.3% New Zealand’s inflation expectations fell to 2.3% in the second quarter, its lowest point since Q3 2021. This marked a third […]

NZ dollar dips as Manufacturing PMI contracts

May 10, 2024 | 05:24 am

The New Zealand dollar is lower on Friday. NZD/USD is down 0.31% on the day, trading at 0.6015 in the European session at the time of writing. New Zealand manufacturing has been in a prolonged slump and the April Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction, with a reading of 48.9, up from 47.1 in March. The […]

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