Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

USDJPY falls below 100 hour MA and runs lower.

May 1, 2024 | 13:25 pm

The USDJPY broke below the 100-day moving average and scooted all the way down to the 200-hour moving average at 155.98. The price moved below that moving average on its way to a low price of 155.793 before bouncing back to the upside. Recall from Monday's trade after the intervention, the price also moved below its 200-hour MA on 4 separate hourly bars, only to fail on each of the separate hourly bar breaks.Can the price NOW stay below that moving average and probe lower? That is the question for traders.The 50% midpoint of the April trading range is now the next target at 155.50. Move below that level opens the door for more downside momentum as more liquidation can be anticipated. The low on Monday reached 154.50 before snapping back to the upside. On the top side staying below the 100-hour moving average at 157.028 is needed to keep the sellers in play. . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The technical roadmap for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD through the FOMC rate decision

May 1, 2024 | 10:51 am

Understanding the roadmap through the Fed Statement and the volatility from the press conference can not only benefit your trading but also save you in case you are wrong. It is by limiting the risk that saves traders. Profits are the benefits of trading the major breaks and hoping for momentum leads to riding the trend after the break. In this video, I outline the technical roadmap for the 3 major currency pairs:EURUSD: starts 0.17USDJPY: starts 4:20GBPUSD: starts 7:14 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD corrects higher and tests MA and retracement levels ahead of the FOMC decision.

May 1, 2024 | 09:13 am

The AUDUSD has corrected higher in trading today (after the sharp fall from Monday) and in the process has moved up toward some moving average resistance defined by the 200-hour moving average and the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. Also in that area is the 50% of the April trading range at 0.65028. That area between 0.6491 to 0.6502 (above and below 0.6500) will be the barometer for more bullish above/more bearish below.In this video, I speak to the roadmap levels in play to and through the Fed rate decision. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Interest rate decision. USA, 20:00 (GMT+2)

May 1, 2024 | 09:00 am

At 20:00 (GMT+2,) the US Federal Reserve System (US Fed) will announce its decision on monetary policy. The regulator may keep the value at the level of 5.50%. In the accompanying statement, the head of the department, Jerome Powell, may also announce specific steps by the financial authorities to further curb inflationary pressure. Read more

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for May 1-2, 2024: buy above $2,290 (21 SMA - 4/8 Murray)

May 1, 2024 | 08:47 am

Gold is trading around 2,297, above the 21 SMA, and above the downtrend channel that has been forming since April 29. We expect that gold will continue its rise in the next few hours and could reach the 200 EMA 2,327.In the next few hours, we could expect gold to make a technical correction and consolidate above 2,290. This area could offer a good opportunity for gold to continue rising. So, the price could reach 4/8 of Murray located at 2,312 and 2,327(200 EMA)With a sharp break above the 200 EMA and a consolidation above this zone on the H1 chart, gold could reach 2,375 and finally, 2,392 where it left a gap on April 18.On the contrary, if gold falls below 2,290, we could expect a continuation of the bearish movement and the instrument could reach 4/8 Murray at 2,250.Technically, gold is seen to be oversold. Therefore, any pullback while trading above the April 30 low could be seen as an opportunity to buy.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY calm ahead of Fed decision

May 1, 2024 | 08:14 am

Japanese yen is trading quietly on Wednesday. USD/JPY is trading at 157.68, down 0.07% at the time of writing. Fed expected to hold rates The Federal Reserve meets later today and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged for a sixth straight time. The target range for the benchmark rate of 5.25% to 5.5% hasn’t […]

USDCAD modestly corrects lower after the break higher yesterday. What next?

May 1, 2024 | 07:51 am

The USDCAD is modestly correcting lower in trading today after the break higher yesterday. The move to the downside was helped a little bit by the weaker US data today. However, the FOMC rate decision looms ahead with the Fed expected to be more hawkish certainly versus the last meeting. How hawkish they are will be the determining factor.In this video, I outlne the technical levels in play and explain why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD moves up to test 200 hour moving average. Finds sellers on the first look

May 1, 2024 | 07:29 am

The weaker US I sent dated pushed the EURUSD higher and up to the 200-hour moving average target at 1.06897. Also near that level is the underside of the channel trend line that was broken during yesterday's trade. The high price reached 1.06907 just above that target level and sellers leaned. The price is currently trading at 1.06845.As mentioned in the kickstart video, the 200-hour moving out and 100-day moving average at 1.0703 will be the key barometer through the FOMC rate decision. Moving above each would tilt the bias more in the buyer's favor. Conversely, staying below would give the sellers the edge. It seems that buyers from earlier today took the opportunity to sell against resistance - at least on the first look. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUD/USD stabilizes after taking a tumble, Fed next

May 1, 2024 | 06:45 am

The Australian dollar has steadied on Wednesday after sliding 1.4% a day earlier. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6489 at the time of writing in the North American session. Australian dollar slides after soft retail sales Retail sales in Australia fell 0.4% m/m in March, following a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in February and […]

The USDCHF broke yesterday to the upside. What keeps the buyers in control?

May 1, 2024 | 06:40 am

The USDCHF continued its run to the upside after the breakout yesterday. The pair moved even higher today and got closer to the next target near the 50% midpoint of the move down from the 2022 high, but has backed off in early US trading. What would keep the buyers in full control? What is the key targets on the topside that would give the buyers even more control after the breakout yesterday?I will answer those questions and explain why in the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

May 1, 2024 | 06:15 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.64; (P) 157.25; (R1) 158.42; More… USD/JPY is extending the consolidation pattern from 160.20 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 154.95 to bring recovery. For now, break of 160.20 is not envisaged in the near term. […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

May 1, 2024 | 06:13 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9128; (P) 0.9162; (R1) 0.9231; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 0.9243 resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.8728 to 0.9151 from 0.9009 at 0.9270. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9087 support […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 1, 2024 | 06:10 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0642; (P) 1.0688; (R1) 1.0713; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside at this point. Recovery from 1.0601 could have completed at at 1.0752 already. Further fall would be seen for retesting 1.0601 first. Firm break there will resume larger fall and target 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart the FX trading day for May 1 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

May 1, 2024 | 06:09 am

As the US session gets underway, the USD is tilting a little to the downside despite stronger ADP jobs report. Of course, the FOMC rate decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell is the highlight for the day. That decision will take place at 2 PM ET with Fed chair's press s conference beginning at 2:30 PM ET. Will the Fed chair tilt even more toward the hawkish side or stay the course with the expectations that rate cuts would be delayed until more inflation data can be evaluated? The core PCE data last week was somewhat of a relief. The employment cost index released yesterday was not.The EURUSD after moving lower is moving to a new session high, and in the process is moving back toward the hourly moving averages including the 200 hour moving average at 1.06896 and 100-hour moving average at 1.07034. Both those moving averages will be key barometers for traders through the FOMC rate decision. As a result, it is not surprising that the market is moving back toward those levels.The USDJPY remains with a more bullish bias as long as the price remains above its 100-hour moving average 156.89. However looking at the five minute chart, there is a small chink in the bullish armor for this pair in the short term with the price dipping below its 100 and 200 bar MAs on that chart. Find out about it in the video above.The GBPUSD - like the EURUSD - is stretching back to the upside after finding support buyers near its 200-hour moving average at 1.24613. Its 100-hour moving average is above at 1.25129 and remains a key target through the FOMC rate decision. For the time being, the price currently trades between those two moving averages at 1.2486, and awaits the next shove. Be aware and prepared for the FOMC rate decision. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 1, 2024 | 05:56 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2465; (P) 1.2517; (R1) 1.2544; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, above 1.2568 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2578). Sustained break there will argue that fall from 1.2892 has completed already, and bring further […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Crude oil inventories. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)

May 1, 2024 | 05:30 am

At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present a weekly report containing data on changes in the volumes of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the country. It may change from −6.368M barrels to 1.700M barrels, putting pressure on oil quotes. Read more

Crude Oil is approaching the key $80 support zone

May 1, 2024 | 05:18 am

Crude Oil has been on a steady retreat as the Israel-Iran episode ended without a major escalation. The price is now approaching a key support zone around the $80 level where we can also find a long term trendline adding some extra confluence. This zone will be key as the buyers will likely step in to position for a rally into the $90 level while the sellers will look for a break lower to invalidate the bullish setup and open the door for a fall back into the $60 region. On the fundamentals side, not much has changed except the pricing out of the geopolitical risk premium. We could see Crude Oil falling more but that will likely need some clear weakness in the data to make the market to price in lower demand. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins

May 1, 2024 | 05:12 am

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is mixed with gains vs the GBP, JPY and CHF and declines vs the EUR, CAD, AUD and NZD. Overnight, New Zealand employment change for the first quarter came in at -0.2% versus +0.3% expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.0% in the fourth quarter. The NZD is mixed to start the US session. Today is Fed Day. The Federal Reserve will announce their rate decision at 2 PM ET with the Fed expected to keep rates unchanged. Fed Chair will address the press starting at 2:30 PM ET> The question the markets will want to know is how hawkish are the Fed members? We know that the Chair Powell - and other fed officials - have already shifted to "unchanged for longer". Will they hint at a more symmetrical stance whereby they keep the door open for a cut or a hike. The expectation now is a 50-50 chance of a cut in September after stronger-than-expected Employment Cost Index released yesterday. Admittedly the Consumer confidence data was also much worse than expectations yesterday balancing some of the most recent data.Highlighting the anxiety and uncertainty, Citibank analysts predict that the S&P 500 will experience its most significant movement on a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) day since May 2023, with an expected fluctuation of 0.95%. This forecast is based on an options strategy known as an at-the-money straddle, which involves purchasing an equal number of call and put options at the same strike price and expiration. The ADP employment data will be released at 8:15 AM ET for April with expectations of 175K vs 184K last month. On Friday the US jobs report will be released with expectations of 250K non-farm payroll jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% while earnings are expected to rise by 0.3%.ISM manufacturing data will be released at 10 AM ET with expectations of 50.0 versus 50.3 last month. Prices paid are expected to dip to 55.0 from 55.8 last month. The JOLTS job openings for March will also be released with 8.6886M expected versus 8.756M last month. It is also a new month and is May Day in Europe.As a result, most of the European stock markets are closed today. In earnings after the close yesterday, Amazon beat expectations. It's shares are modestly higher. SMCI shares are lower as they missed on Revenues, blaming supply chain issues for some key components. The market is not listening to excuses as shares are down over -12%. Starbucks shares are also lower after missing on EPS and revenues. Stryker Corp (SYK) Q1 2024 (USD): shares are trading down -0.45%Adj. EPS: 2.50 (Beat, exp. 2.35)Revenue: 5.2bn (Beat, exp. 5.1bn)Summary: BEATAdvanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) Q1 2024 (USD): AMD shares are trading-6.49%Adj. EPS: 0.62 (Beat, exp. 0.61)Revenue: 5.47bn (Beat, exp. 5.46bn)Summary: BEATMondelez International Inc (MDLZ) Q1 2024 (USD): shares are trading down -2.70%Adj. EPS: 0.95 (Beat, exp. 0.89)Revenue: 9.29bn (Beat, exp. 9.16bn)Summary: BEATPinterest Inc (PINS) Q1 2024 (USD): PINS shares are trading up 16.05%Adj. EPS: 0.20 (Beat, exp. 0.13)Revenue: 740mln (Beat, exp. 700.3mln)Summary: BEATStarbucks Corp (SBUX) Q2 2024 (USD): SBUX shares are trading down -12.71%Adj. EPS: 0.68 (Missed, exp. 0.79)Revenue: 8.56bn (Missed, exp. 9.13bn)Summary: MISSEDSuper Micro Computer(SMCI) Q3 2024 (USD): SMCI shares are trading down -12.50%Adj. EPS: 6.65 (Beat, exp. 5.78)Revenue: 3.85bn (Missed, exp. 3.95bn)Summary: MIXEDAmazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q1 2024 (USD): Amazon shares are trading up 1.71%.EPS: 0.98 (Beat, exp. 0.83)Revenue: 143.3bn (Beat, exp. 142.5bn)Summary: BEATBelow is a summary of some of the major releases this morning. CVS shares are tumbling lower after missing on the top and bottom lines. Yum! Brands also missed and are being punished by traders today: Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP): Shares are trading up 1.26%EPS: 2.88 (Beat, exp. 2.79)Revenue: $5.3 billion (Beat, exp. $5.22 billion)Summary: BEATMarriott International Inc (MAR): Shares are trading down -1.37%.Adj. EPS: 2.13 (Missed, exp. 2.17)Revenue: $5.98 billion (Beat, exp. $5.93 billion)Summary: MIXEDYum! Brands Inc (YUM): Shares are trading down -4.96%.EPS: 1.15 (Missed, exp. 1.20)Revenue: $1.6 billion (Missed, exp. $1.71 billion)Summary: MISSEDKraft Heinz Co (KHC): Shares are trading down -4.61%Adj. EPS: 0.69 (Met, exp. 0.69)Revenue: $6.4 billion (Missed, exp. $6.43 billion)Summary: MIXEDPfizer Inc (PFE): Shares are trading up 1.29%Adj. EPS: 0.82 (Beat, exp. 0.52)Revenue: $14.879 billion (Beat, exp. $14.01 billion)Summary: BEATCVS Health Corp (CVS): Shares are trading down -11.55%.Adj. EPS: 1.31 (Missed, exp. 1.69)Revenue: $88.4 billion (Missed, exp. $89.21 billion)Summary: MISSEDA snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down -$1.30 at $80.57. At this time yesterday, the price was at $83.11Gold is trading up $8.16 or 0.35% at $2293.46. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2310.90Silver is trading up $0.17 or 0.66% at $26.45.. At this time yesterday, the price was at $26.52Bitcoin currently trades lower at $57,704. The high-priced today reached $60,786 while the low price was at $56,500. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $60,966In the premarket, the US major indices are trading lower after closing April with sharp declines that snapped 5-months of gains for the major indices: Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -69 point. Yesterday, the index closed the market with a sharp decline of -570.17 points or -1.49% at 37815.93. For the month the index fell -5.0%..S&P futures are implying a decline of -16.94 points. Yesterday, the index fell -80.46 points or -1.57% at 5035.70. For the month the index fell -4.16%.Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -72 points. Yesterday, the index fell minus 328.26. points or -2.04% at 18687.82. For the month, the index fell -4.41%. Apart from the UK FTSE 100, other European markets are closed for the May Day holiday:German DAX, closed. Yesterday the index fell -1.03%. For the month the index fell -3.03%France CAC , closed. Yesterday the index fell -0.99%. For the month the index fell -2.69%UK FTSE 100, -0.04%. For the month the index[…]

GBP/USD Analysis: Selling Pressure May Continue - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 05:07 am

The dollar resumed its advance ahead of the Federal Reserve statement later today after early week losses that had pushed GBP/USD to resistance at 1.2570 and back into its broader bearish channel to support at 1.2467 at the time of writing.

JOLTS job openings. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 1, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish March data on the number of vacancies in the JOLTS labor market. The indicator records the number of new open vacancies in the non-agricultural sector and is an important indicator of the American labor market. A correction from 8.756M to 8.680M is expected. Read more

ISM manufacturing PMI. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 1, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2) in the US, April purchasing managers index in the manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is due. The indicator reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development is assessed. The index may fall from 50.3 points to 50.1 points. Read more

USD/JPY Analysis: Upward Trend Remains - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 04:41 am

According to yesterday's trading, the Japanese yen failed to maintain its upward rebound against the US dollar and trimmed some of its sharp gains at the beginning of the trading week.

EUR/USD Analysis: Lowest Level Trading Range - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 04:12 am

The EUR/USD price quickly gave up its gains yesterday, which reached the resistance level of 1.0735.

Gold Analysis: Is It Time to Buy Gold? - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 04:06 am

Gold prices settled below $2300 an ounce on Wednesday trading, hovering near a four-week low as investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision amid concerns it will keep US interest rates high for an extended period.

Video market update for May 01, 2024

May 1, 2024 | 04:02 am

Potential for the further drop on NAS100 and BTCThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Technical Analysis - Chances of a big correction increase

May 1, 2024 | 03:54 am

The Israel retaliation really marked the top for Gold as the geopolitical risk faded and the market caught up with the rise in US real yields. The trend might be reversing and some key technical breaks are adding up to the chances of seeing a big correction to the downside. Looking ahead, the bears will need to see the strength in the US data continue as a quick deterioration will likely invalidate the bearish case. Gold Technical Analysis - Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Gold fell below a key trendline recently, and after some consolidation, continued lower led by the market's positioning into a hawkish Fed and the hot US Q1 ECI report yesterday. All else being equal, the natural target should stand around the next trendline near the previous all-time high at 2145 which can be reached if the US data continues to run hot. Gold Technical Analysis - 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke the bearish flag to the downside increasing the bearish momentum as the sellers piled in more aggressively. Technically, the measured target stands around the 2220 level. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 2320 level as we will find the downward trendline acting as resistance, although we will liekly need some weak US data releases or a dovish Fed to get there. A break above the trendline should see the buyers stepping in with more conviction while a break above the 2352 high will invalidate the bearish setup. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

ADP nonfarm employment change. USA, 14:15 (GMT+2)

May 1, 2024 | 03:15 am

At 14:15 (GMT+2), the US will publish April data on the number of non-farm payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP). They reflect changes in the number of jobs in the non-farm sector and are based on a survey of about 400.0K business sources. The indicator is considered a leading indicator of federal employment data. A correction of the value is expected from 184.0K to 179.0K, putting pressure on American dollar. Read more

NZ dollar shrugs after soft jobs report

May 1, 2024 | 03:02 am

The New Zealand dollar has steadied on Thursday, after a sharp decline of 1.5% a day earlier. NZD/USD is trading higher 0.08% on the day at 0.5890, at the time of writing. New Zealand’s employment declines New Zealand’s labor market is showing signs of cracks. Employment in the fourth quarter declined by 0.2% q/q, down […]

USD/CAD Analysis: Anxious Speculative Wagers as Higher Realms Touched - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 02:29 am

Yesterday’s GDP numbers from Canada came in below expectations, which essentially put the Bank of Canada into the same difficult position the U.S Federal Reserve is battling.

NZD/USD Analysis: Long-Term Marks Being Challenged After Another Fall - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 02:17 am

Support levels are being challenged today in NZD/USD trading as another drop lower has been exhibited.

Forex forecast 05/01/2024: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, SP500 and Oil from Sebastian Seliga

May 1, 2024 | 02:15 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links:My other articles are available in this section: https://www.instaforex.com/analytics_authors?author=46InstaForex course for beginners: https://www.instaforex.com/distance_training_programPopular Analytics: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysisOpen trading account: https://www.instaforex.com/fast_open_new_accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Japanese Yen: Opportunities in volatility and BoJ intervention? - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 02:07 am

The Japanese Yen is now being sold despite its exceptionally strong rise on Monday after suspected Bank of Japan intervention.

ETH/USD Forex Signal: Look for Momentum - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 01:55 am

Ethereum plunged during the early hours on Tuesday, but at this point in time, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noise out there as we're hanging around the crucial $3,000 level.

USDCHF Technical Analysis - What do we need to maintain the bullish trend?

May 1, 2024 | 01:29 am

The US Q1 inflation data has been consistently surprising to the upside leading to a repricing in interest rates expectations with the market now fully pricing just one rate cut in 2024. On the other hand, the Switzerland inflation readings have been doing the opposite leading to the first rate cut from the SNB in March and the market expecting the central bank to cut by 25 bps at every subsequent meeting. This classic monetary policy divergence triggered a big move in the USDCHF pair with the market bidding up the USD aggressively on every hawkish catalyst and selling off the CHF on lower inflation figures.USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF has almost reached a key resistance around the 0.9250 level. That’s where we can expect a rejection with the buyers taking some profits off the table and the sellers stepping in with a defined risk above the level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break below it to increase the bearish bets into new lows. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 Hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the pair has been ranging between the 0.9080 support and the 0.9150 resistance for almost a month as the market awaited new catalysts to push the price in either direction. Yesterday’s US Q1 ECI data was the catalyst that triggered another bullish impulse with the momentum increasing once the price broke out of the range. If we get some downside surprise in today’s US data, we should see the pair retesting the broken resistance now turned support. What could be the next catalysts?We know that the market has already priced in the rate cuts for the SNB and just one cut for the Fed, so what could trigger a break above the 0.9250 resistance or reverse completely the trend? Well, anything that can change the expectations around the baseline will be the catalyst for the next big move. For the SNB we have the inflation data tomorrow and the market will need another downside surprise to price in the chances for more aggressive rate cuts which will likely weigh on the CHF. For the USD, we have the Fed and lots of top tier data this week. If the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, we can expect the USD to run across the board and that could be the catalyst for a break above the resistance. At the moment though, the data is more important than the Fed because we might get a hawkish surprise yeah, but then if the data deteriorates quickly, the market will start to price back in three or more rate cuts. For this reason, the ISM PMIs will be important as the market will want to see if the data confirms the findings in the S&P Global US PMIs. Then we have of course the US NFP which is expected to be good, but watch out for downside surprises, especially if coupled with weak ISM PMIs as that could be the catalyst to reverse the trend and trigger a bigger correction. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Hong Kong 50 Forecast: Hits Massive Resistance - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 00:42 am

The Hong Kong 50, the benchmark index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, has ran into a bit of a brick wall over the last 36 hours in the form of HK$18,000.

USD/MXN Forecast: US Dollar Stabilizes Against Mexican Peso Ahead of FOMC - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 00:37 am

The US dollar has been going back and forth during the course of the trading session on Tuesday, but overall, it has been relatively stable.

S&P 500 Forecast: Cautious Ahead of FOMC - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 00:27 am

The S&P 500 fell somewhat significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, to reach down toward the 50-Day EMA indicator.

GBP/CHF Forecast: British Pound Continues to Pressure Swiss Franc - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 00:22 am

The British pound has rallied during the trading session on Tuesday to reach toward the 1.15 level above.

AUD/USD Forecast: Australian Dollar Falls on Tuesday - 01 May 2024

May 1, 2024 | 00:14 am

The Aussie dollar fell significantly during the course of the trading session on Tuesday.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:53 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 196.27; (P) 196.82; (R1) 197.70; More.. GBP/JPY is extending consolidation from 200.53 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 193.51 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 200.53 will resume larger up trend. In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 123.94 […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Threatening Major Bearish Breakdown Below $59,000 - 01 May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:52 pm

Bitcoin is bearish like almost all commodities in the current market environment.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:48 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.45; (P) 168.02; (R1) 168.82; More… EUR/JPY is extending consolidation from 171.58 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. Overall outlook will remain bullish as long as 165.33 resistance turned support holds. Above 171.58 will resume larger up trend to 178.39 projection level next. In the bigger picture, current rally is […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:45 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8527; (P) 0.8541; (R1) 0.8553; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with current recovery. Some consolidations would be seen above 0.8529 temporary low. But further decline is expected as long as 0.8582 resistance holds. Below 0.8529 will target 0.8491/7 support zone. In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as EUR/GBP […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Rally Takes a Breather Ahead of FOMC Decision - 01 May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:45 pm

The GBP/USD pair dipped sharply amid a broader US dollar rebound.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:41 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6368; (P) 1.6433; (R1) 1.6544; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6484 resistance holds. Below 1.6288 will resume the fall from 1.6742 to 1.6127 support, or further to 100% projection of 1.7062 to 1.6127 from 1.6742 at 1.5807. However, break of […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Outlook as it Breaks Below Rising Wedge - 01 May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:38 pm

The EUR/USD exchange rate dived sharply after mixed European and American economic numbers.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:37 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9765; (P) 0.9791; (R1) 0.9833; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is back on the upside with break of 0.9800 temporary top. Retest of 0.9847 resistance should be seen. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 0.9252 to 61.8% projection of 0.9252 to 0.9847 from 0.9563 at 0.9931 next. Further rally is […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Forecast: Major Swing Low - 01 May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:32 pm

The euro has rallied a little bit against the British pound as we have tested a major area of support right around the 0.8525 level.

Manufacturing PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), the UK will publish April data on the manufacturing business activity index. The indicator reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development is assessed. The index may fall from 50.3 points to 48.7 points, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

AUD/USD Forex Signal: More Downside as the DXY Index Rises - 01 May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:30 pm

The Australian dollar suffered a harsh reversal after the relatively weak Australian retail sales and US consumer confidence report.

USD/JPY Forecast: Upwards Ahead of FOMC - 01 May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:25 pm

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the early hours on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.

BTC/USD Forecast: Will Bitcoin Struggle after FOMC? - 01 May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:18 pm

Bitcoin initially did try to rally a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, but since then has plunged lower.

Gold Forecast: Support Ahead of FOMC - 01 May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:09 pm

The gold market has shown itself to be rather negative during the day. But I think at this point you have to look at it through the prism of a market that is now testing major support.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:04 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3694; (P) 1.3739; (R1) 1.3824; More… USD/CAD’s break of 1.3730 minor resistance suggests that pullback from 1.3845 has completed at 1.3613. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.3845 first. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 1.3176 towards 1.3976 key resistance next. For now, risk will stay on […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:01 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6439; (P) 0.6504; (R1) 0.6537; More… Break of 0.6482 minor support argues that rebound from 0.6361 has completed importantly, fall from 0.6870 might not be over yet. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.6361 low next. On the upside, above 0.6513 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 22:57 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0642; (P) 1.0688; (R1) 1.0713; More… Break of 1.0673 minor support argues that EUR/USD recovery from 1.0601 has completed at 1.0752 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.0601 first. Firm break there will resume larger fall and target 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536. […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 22:53 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2465; (P) 1.2517; (R1) 1.2544; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.2568 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2580). Sustained break there will argue that fall from 1.2892 has completed already, and bring further rise to this resistance. […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 22:48 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.64; (P) 157.25; (R1) 158.42; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point, as consolidation from 160.20 is extending. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 154.95 to bring recovery. For now, break of 160.20 is not envisaged in the […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 22:30 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9128; (P) 0.9162; (R1) 0.9231; More…. USD/CHF’s rally from 0.8332 resumed and hit as high as 0.9215 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.9243 resistance next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.8728 to 0.9151 from 0.9009 at 0.9270. […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Manufacturing PMI. Japan, 02:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 30, 2024 | 15:30 pm

At 02:30 (GMT+2), April data on the business activity index in the manufacturing sector is due in Japan. The indicator reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. At the same time, the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and the prospects for its further development is assessed. It may rise from 48.2 points to 49.9 points, supporting the yen. Read more

Employment change. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 30, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:45 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish Q1 data on changes in employment levels. The value may decline from 0.4% to 0.3%, putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Read more

Unemployment rate. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 30, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:45 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish Q1 data on the unemployment rate. This indicator records the percentage of registered unemployed citizens over 18 years to the total working-age population of the country. The value may rise from 4.0% to 4.3%, putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Read more

USD/ZAR Monthly Forecast: May 2024 - 30 April 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 13:25 pm

USD/ZAR: Lower Move Doesn’t Prevent More Speculative Concern

USD/INR Monthly Forecast: May 2024 - 30 April 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 13:07 pm

USD/INR: Government Regulation Squeezes Forex amidst Control

Copper price surge: Best month in over 3 years!

Apr 30, 2024 | 11:50 am

The price of copper is lower today with the price down -$0.11 to $4.565, but for the month the price rose 14% which represents the largest move since January 2021. The price of the front contract traded to the highest level since April 2022 today with a high at $4.6945, before rotating to the downside into month end. The low price for April was down at $4.02 on the first trading day of the month. The high price from 2022 reached $5.0395. Ahead of that high are some swing level highs between $4.817 and $4.888 (see yellow area on the chart above). That area represents the next target on more trend like momentum. On the downside the old high from early 2023 came in st $4.355. Moving back below that level on the daily chart above would likely disappoint buyers at least from a technical perspective. Gains are being attributed to:Supply risks: Limited growth in mine supply and tight availability of concentrates are constraining production, particularly affecting smelters and refiners in China.Increasing demand: There is a rebound in demand in the US and Europe as economies recover, coupled with growing needs from the energy transition sector, including electric vehicles, power grids, and wind turbines.Bullish market forecasts: Analysts, including those from major Wall Street banks like Citi and Bank of America, have raised their price targets for copper, predicting significant increases through the end of the year and beyond.Economic role: Copper is seen as a proxy for economic health, and its critical role in the energy transition highlights its importance.Speculative investment: Expectations of a cyclical recovery could drive prices significantly higher, with analysts suggesting potential explosive price increases if certain economic conditions are met.Market dynamics: While there is optimism about high prices, there is also caution that high prices may lead to demand adjustments and potential substitution if copper becomes too expensive relative to other metals like aluminum This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

API weekly crude oil stocks. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 30, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) is due. Previously, the statistics recorded a correction to –3.230M barrels, and the trend continuation may support oil prices. Read more

Video market update for April 30, 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 10:28 am

Potential for the further drop on BTC and NAS100The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Canadian dollar slides as Cdn. GDP misses expectations

Apr 30, 2024 | 09:54 am

The Canadian dollar is down sharply on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3743, down 0.71%. Canada’s GDP rises 0.2% Canada’s economy continues to struggle in the first quarter. GDP grew by a modest 0.2% m/m February, down from a revised 0.5% in January and shy of the market estimate of […]

BREAKOUT. A number of the major currency pairs are making a break for it. What next?

Apr 30, 2024 | 09:54 am

The USD is making a break for it vs. a number of the major currencies. As a result, it was time to take a look at a number of the pairs and give an updated technical look at where we stand and what are the risks, targets for each.In the video, I take a look at the:EURUSD: 0.16USDCHF: 1:11NZDUSD: 2:20USDCAD 3:45GBPUSD 4:46Conclusion: 5:36Of course, the FOMC rate decision is tomorrow. Depending on what the statement and Chair Powell say will ultimately determine the next move, but the market is voting for a USD higher bias. What is needed to shift that bias now? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF makes a break for it. What next?

Apr 30, 2024 | 09:22 am

The USDCHF is making a break for it.The break comes on the move above the swing area high and 0.9156. The last 15 or so trading days has been able to stay below that level in between there was a flash out back toward the 38.2% retracement of the longer-term move down from the 2022 high as 0.9025, but now was quickly reversed (see daily chart above).There's a key target area on the daily chart comes in at 0.92395. That little represents the 50% midpoint as well as swing highs going back to October 3 in October 4 between 0.9232 in 0.9244 (brackets in the 50% midpoint).Looking at the hourly chart below, the price earlier today moved up to test the high of the swing area only to rotate back down toward the 100-hour moving average. Buyers leaned against that moving average before pushing to the upside and through the high ceiling area at 0.9256. Bullish.Going forward, it would take a move back below the high ceiling area between 0.9146 and 0.9156 to disappoint the buyers, and give the sellers some comfort (and more control on the failed break). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks move to new lows led by the Nasdaq index

Apr 30, 2024 | 08:39 am

The major US stock indices are moving to new lows led by the Dow Industrial Average average on the NASDAQ index which are both down by about -0.82%.A snapshot of the market currently shows:Dow Industrial Average average -320.44 points or -0.83% at 38065.66S&P index -38.79 points or -0.70% at 5080.37NASDAQ index -130.12 points or -0.81% at 15852.97.The NASDAQ index is moving back down toward its falling 100-hour moving average at 15829. The high price reached yesterday fell short of its 200-hour moving out at 16077.85. With the price trading between the two hourly moving averages, it will take a break outside the MAs to either increase the bearish bias (below 100 hour MA), or increase the bullish bias (above the 200 hour MA). The small-cap Russell 2000 is actually fairing the worst as rates move higher. It is currently down -25.51 points or -1.27% at 1990.50.In the US debt market, yields are higher but off the highest levels:2-year yield 5.01%, +3.7 basis points5-year yield 4.63%, +5.1 basis points10 year yield 4.661%, +4.9 basis points30-year yield 4.771%, +3.3 basis pointsHigher-than-expected ECI data for Q1 have helped to hurt stocks and bonds. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Analysis of the EUR/USD pair on April 30, 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 08:25 am

The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. Currently, we are observing the construction of the presumed wave 3 in 3 or c from the downtrend segment. If this is indeed the case, the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this segment completed near the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend segment should end below.Moreover, the 1.0450 mark is the target only for the third wave. If the current downtrend segment turns out to be impulsive, then we can expect a total of five waves, and the European currency could decline below the 1.0000 mark. Undoubtedly, it isn't easy to expect such a development of events now, but over the past years, surprises in the currency market have been abundant. Anything is possible.Can we change the wave analysis? There is always a chance. However, if since October 3rd of last year, we have been observing a new upward trend segment, then the last downward wave does not fit into any structure, which cannot be. Therefore, an upward segment is only possible with a strong complication of the wave analysis.Demand for the euro does not change at the beginning of the week. The EUR/USD pair rate did not change on Tuesday, which is quite surprising considering the news background in the first half of the day. The reports needed to be more consistent in terms of their meaning for the currency market. If Germany's GDP in the first quarter grew by 0.2%, then in the fourth quarter, it was lowered to -0.5%. If the GDP report in Germany was negative, then in the European Union, it was positive, as it indicated a value of +0.3% q/q. Inflation in the European Union was 2.4% in April, which fully matched market expectations, but at the same time, core inflation slowed to 2.7%, while markets expected an even greater slowdown. All European reports of the day are difficult to interpret in favor of any specific currency.For me, inflation remains the key report. If the main indicator has not accelerated, and the core one has slowed down, it means that the ECB's plan continues to work, and the regulator's current level of "restrictiveness" is enough to achieve price stability. Inflation continues to move towards the target level of 2% and is already very close to it. Therefore, the ECB in June has more and more chances to make a positive decision on transitioning to a more "dovish" policy. In my opinion, this is the most important thing now because a high probability of starting policy easing means that demand for the European currency will continue to decline. This is exactly what is needed for the current wave analysis. This week, the situation may be spoiled by statistics from the United States, but let's hope that it will not be disastrous, which undoubtedly will cause a decline in the US dollar.General conclusions. Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the construction of a downward set of waves continues. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are completed, so in the near future, I expect the continuation of the construction of an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c with a significant decline in the pair. I continue to consider selling with targets near the calculated mark of 1.0462, as the news background remains on the side of the dollar. A successful attempt to break the 1.0637 mark, which equates to 100.0% Fibonacci, will indicate the market's readiness for new sales.On the larger wave scale, it is visible that the presumed wave 2 or b, which in length was more than 61.8% Fibonacci from the first wave, so it may be completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or c and a decrease in the pair below the 4-figure mark has begun to be implemented.The main principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play out; they often bring changes.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget about Stop Loss orders for protection.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the GBP/USD pair on April 30th. Last chance for the dollar

Apr 30, 2024 | 08:18 am

The wave analysis for the GBP/USD pair remains quite complex. A successful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicated the market's readiness to build a downward wave 3 or c. If this wave indeed continues to develop, the wave pattern will become much simpler, and the threat of complicating the wave analysis will disappear.As I have already noted, the wave pattern should be simple and understandable to work with. There needs to be more simplicity and understanding in recent months. For a long time, the pair was sideways, and only now is there an opportunity to build a downward impulsive wave.In the current situation, my readers can count on the construction of wave 3 or c, the targets of which are located below the low of wave 1 or a. Therefore, the pound should decrease by at least another 400-500 basis points from current levels. With such a decrease, wave 3 or c will be relatively small; I expect a much larger decline in quotes. The news background supports the US dollar, and after breaking the level of 1.2469 (50.0% Fibonacci), the psychological blockade has been lifted from the sellers.Sellers are quick to return to the market. The GBP/USD pair rate fell by 20 basis points on Tuesday, which is undoubtedly very little to conclude the completion of the upward wave. The current wave analysis suggests a decline in quotes, but in recent weeks, we have only seen growth. And the longer we observe such movement, the more doubts arise about the pound's ability to drop to at least the 1.20 figure, from where it began to build an upward wave in October last year. At the moment, there are no grounds for making corrections to the wave analysis, but the pound has been in the same price range for too long. Few readers like the current state of affairs in the market.The pair's rate has returned to the levels that I have long considered the lower boundary of the sideways range. There is a high probability of an unsuccessful attempt to break these levels and resume the construction of a downward wave 3 or c. However, another 50-100 basis points upward, and expectations of a decline in the pair will have to be postponed. Therefore, for the US dollar, it is almost the last chance to "grab onto" the market. If the US reports are weak on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, the pound's rise will continue, and then the wave analysis will become even more complex.The probability of transforming wave analysis exists almost always. The question is whether this transformation corresponds to the news background. At the moment, the news background supports the dollar as the Fed is moving further and further away from the moment of the first round of rate cuts. It cannot be said that this process is insignificant for the market. Surely, the market has been busy all winter laying in the price of the March rate cut that the Fed abandoned. Then, the market is expected to ease in June, which will also not happen.General conclusions. The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am still considering selling the pair with targets below the level of 1.2039, as wave 3 or c is beginning to form. A successful attempt to break the level of 1.2472, corresponding to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates the long-awaited readiness of the market to build a downward wave.On the larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more revealing. The downward correctional segment of the trend continues to form, and its second wave has acquired an extended form – at 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break this level could have led to the beginning of the construction of wave 3 or c.The main principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play out; they often bring changes.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget about Stop Loss orders for protection.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD moves to lows and tests the 200 hour MA. That MA stalled the fall last Friday.

Apr 30, 2024 | 08:18 am

The EURUSD has moved back to a new session low and in the process is testing the 200-hour MA at 1.0687. That MA stalled the fall on Friday (at a lower level). Moving below the 200 hour MA is now needed to increase the bearish bias, and have traders targeting the trend line and the low of a swing area down to 1.06529. If the buyers stall the fall here (and trader could buy here given the low risk), getting back above the 100-hour MA at 1.0711 would be eyed as a level to get to and through, to give the dip buyers more confidence. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD ending an up and down and up and down month near the midpoint level.

Apr 30, 2024 | 08:08 am

The AUDUSD moved higher yesterday and in the process tested is 100 day moving average near 0.65812. After briefly breaking above that level, buyers turn to sellers but remained above a swing area between 0.65417 and 0.65504.We can expected retail sales in Australia helped to push the price back below that swing area and turned buyers to sellers. The selling continued through the 100-day moving average of 0.6529, 200-day moving average 0.6523, 200-bar moving average on the 4- hour chart at 0.6520 100-bar moving average at 0.6498. The fall finally stalled right at the 200-hour moving average 0.64879 after the stronger than expected employment cost index data. The price has bounced modestly and trades just below its 50% midpoint for the month of April at 0.65028.What next for the AUDUSD after what has been an up-and-down month? I will outline the levels in play in the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders for April 30th (US session)

Apr 30, 2024 | 08:03 am

Trade analysis and trading tips for the British poundThe test of the price at 1.2540 in the first half occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair only rose by 15 points, and that was the end of it. Lending data did not affect market sentiment in any way. Something may change after today's consumer confidence indicators in the US and the Chicago PMI index. However, the reports must exceed economists' expectations for the pound to react seriously. If not, it's better to trade within the range. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2558 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to the level of 1.2590 (thicker green line on the chart). At the point of 1.2590, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pound growth today can only be expected after weak statistics and after breaking the daily maximum. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2532 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. It is possible to expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2558 and 1.2590.Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level of 1.2532 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2486, where I will exit sales and also open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves in case of a lack of activity around the daily maximum and strong US data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2558 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. It is possible to expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.2532 and 1.2486.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought. Thick green line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold. Thick red line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to guide yourself by overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders for April 30th (US session)

Apr 30, 2024 | 07:58 am

Trade analysis and trading tips for the European currencyThe first price test at 1.0713 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair moved up more than 20 points. Good data from Germany and the eurozone aided this. GDP turned out to be higher than economists' forecasts, and inflation matched expectations, allowing the European Central Bank to choose the right course of monetary policy. However, the pair did not see significant growth, and there are objective reasons for this in the form of tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting. Today, in the second half of the day, market movement may be affected by consumer confidence data and the Chicago PMI index, but they must significantly deviate from economists' expectations. Strong consumer confidence - I sell the euro and buy the dollar. Weak data - I act the opposite way. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0740 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to the level of 1.0782. At the point of 1.0782, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected after weak US statistics, as there will be no other reasons to buy the euro. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0713 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. It is possible to expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0740 and 1.0782.Sell SignalScenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0713 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0670, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a lack of buyer activity around the daily maximum and strong US data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0740 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. It is possible to expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.0713 and 1.0670.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought. Thick green line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold. Thick red line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to guide yourself by overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 30th (analysis of morning deals). The pound is kept within the side channel

Apr 30, 2024 | 07:55 am

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2516 level and planned to make decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The decline occurred, but it never reached the formation of a false breakdown there. As a result, it was not possible to obtain suitable entry points into the market. In the afternoon, the technical picture was not revised.To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:The data on lending in the UK did not help bring volatility back to the market, so in the afternoon I advise you to focus on the report on consumer confidence in the United States and the Chicago PMI index. The first indicator is much more important. Its growth will return the pressure on GBP/USD, which I will try to use in order to work out the morning scenario. The formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2516 will give an entry point to buy with the aim of rising to the resistance of 1.2565. A breakout and a top-down test of this range against the background of bad statistics will give a chance for GBP/USD growth, which will allow you to get to 1.2610. In the case of an exit above this range, we can talk about a breakthrough to 1.2657, where I'm going to fix profits. But given the Fed's meeting tomorrow, this is unlikely. In the scenario of a fall in GBP/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.2516 in the afternoon, the market will maintain balance, and trading will move into the framework of a side channel. In this case, I will look for purchases in the area of 1.2485. The formation of a false breakdown there will be a suitable option for entering the market. It is possible to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2449 in order to correct by 30-35 points within a day.To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:The bears still have a chance to continue to return to the pair's decline, but for this they need to take 1.2516, which they failed to do in the first half of the day. If the pair grows after weak US data, I will postpone sales until the test of a new resistance of 1.2565, which buyers have been looking at with great interest for a long time. Only the formation of a false breakdown there will make it possible to verify the presence of large sellers in the market, which will lead to a fall in GBP/USD to the area of 1.2516. A breakout and a reverse test from the bottom up of this range will increase the pressure on the pair, giving the bears an advantage and another entry point to sell with the aim of updating 1.2485 and 1.2449. A longer-range target will be a minimum of 1.2383, where I will record profits. With the option of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears at 1.2565 in the afternoon, the bulls will have the opportunity to continue building an uptrend with an upward movement to the resistance area of 1.2610. I will also serve there only on a false breakdown. In the absence of activity there, I advise you to open short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2657, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 23, there was again a sharp reduction in long positions and an increase in short ones. Buyers of the pound continue to leave the market, as recently UK statistics have not pleased traders, and the risks that the US Federal Reserve will announce the need to further combat inflation force them to buy the US dollar again. A meeting of the monetary policy committee will be held in the near future, which will determine the further medium-term direction of the pair, so that the current upward correction in the pound may quickly come to an end. The latest COT report says that long non-profit positions decreased by 23,341 to 48,459, while short non-profit positions increased by 11,511 to 74,692. As a result, the spread between long and short positions jumped by 2,969.Moving averagesTrading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2525, will act as support.Description of indicators:Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9Bollinger Bands. Period 20Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 30th (analysis of morning deals). The euro is trying to end the month on

Apr 30, 2024 | 07:40 am

In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.0726 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. Growth and the formation of a false breakout led to a signal to sell the euro, but significant downward movement of the pair did not occur. The technical picture was slightly revised for the second half of the day.To open long positions on EURUSD, the following is required:Obviously, the fairly good statistics from the eurozone and Germany, where economic growth rates turned out to be higher than economists' expectations, managed to support demand for the euro. All this resulted in an attempt to break above the daily high. But the attempt, as I warned, was mediocre. As a result, we got a sell signal, which is still valid at the time of writing this article. Clearly, the euro's rise is limited by tomorrow's FOMC meeting, so be cautious with purchases in the second half of the day. Ahead, we expect data on consumer confidence and the Chicago PMI. Strong reports will lead to a decline in the pair, which I plan to capitalize on. The formation of a false breakout around the larger support level of 1.0697, formed based on yesterday's results, will provide an entry point for long positions capable of pushing the euro back towards the significant resistance of 1.0751, formed based on last week's results. Breaking and updating this range from top to bottom will lead to the formation of a new bullish market and a buy signal with a chance of surging to 1.0779. The ultimate target will be a maximum of 1.0804, where I will take profit. In the event of a decline in EUR/USD and lack of activity around 1.0697, which is more likely, pressure on the euro within the medium-term bearish trend will return. In this case, I will enter the market only after the formation of a false breakout around the next support level of 1.0663. I plan to open long positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0639 with a target of a 30-35 point upward correction within the day.To open short positions on EURUSD, the following is required:Euro sellers have all the chances for a pair decline, but for this, I would like to see a test of the larger resistance at 1.0751, which we did not reach in the first half of the day. The formation of a false breakout there, along with strong consumer sentiment in the US, will be an excellent scenario for entering short positions with a target decline to around 1.0697 - support formed by the end of the first half of the day, where the moving averages, playing in favor of buyers, are just above. Breaking and consolidating below this range, along with a reverse test from bottom to top, will provide another selling point, with the pair moving towards 1.0663. I expect more active involvement of large buyers there. The ultimate target will be a minimum of 1.0639, where I will take a profit. In case of an upward movement of EUR/USD in the second half of the day, as well as the absence of bears at 1.0751, bears will say goodbye to hopes of regaining control of the market. In this case, I will postpone sales until testing the next resistance at 1.0779. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0804 with a target of a 30-35 point downward correction.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 23rd, there was a reduction in long positions and an increase in short ones. Obviously, traders were disappointed with the US GDP data for the first quarter, which turned out to be worse than economists' forecasts. Together with rising inflation, we can now seriously talk about stagflation, which will continue to gain momentum, making the life of the Federal Reserve increasingly difficult. Soon, we will have a committee meeting where decisions will be made on interest rates and an assessment of the economy, which may lead to some revision of policy conditions towards tightening. So, take your time writing off the bullish trend for the US dollar. I expect a further decline in the pair within the observed medium-term trend. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions fell by 11,616 to 167,296, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 10,597 to 177,285. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 2,116.Indicator signals:Moving averages:Trading is around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger Bands:In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.0697, will act as support.Description of indicators:Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9Bollinger Bands. Period 20Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro dips as eurozone GDP expands

Apr 30, 2024 | 07:31 am

The euro is slightly lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0703, down 0.17%. Eurozone GDP climbs, inflation dips The eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the highest rate since the third quarter of 2022. This follows a flat reading in Q4 2022 and beat the […]

The USDCAD buyers take charge. Can they hold control now?

Apr 30, 2024 | 07:22 am

The USDCAD buyers took control after the higher-than-expected US employment cost index for the first quarter was released at 8:30 AM . The fundamental news and sent the price of the USDCAD above its 200-hour moving average and 100 bar moving average on the four-hour chart near 1.3700. The price also moved above it 38.2% retracement of the recent move down from the April high at 1.37134. That retracement level will now act as close support if the buyers are to remain in full control. A move back below that level would probably disappoint the buyers.The Federal Reserve meets tomorrow. The employment cost data certainly does not help. However, expectations may not equate to the reality of the Fedspeak. What we do know is that the market has pushed back the Fed cut expectations to September, and even then, the expectations are 50-50 for a cut at that time.The video above outlines the key that flows for this pair going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trading Signals for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) for April 30 - May 7, 2024: sell below $62,500 (21 SMA - 4/8 Murray)

Apr 30, 2024 | 07:17 am

Bitcoin is trading around 61,266 under strong bearish pressure. During the European session, it tried to break the top of the bearish trend channel forming since March 30 around 64,700.Bitcoin has been trading within a downward trend channel for several days since approximately March 10. However, since the beginning of April, it developed a strong technical correction. Now, we observe that the price is consolidating around the psychological level of $60,000.In case Bitcoin continues to fall, we could expect it to find good support around the bottom of the downtrend channel forming since March 10 around 58,500.With a sharp break below this primary bearish channel, the price is expected to slump to the bottom of the secondary bearish channel around 54,200. If bearish pressure prevails, the crypto could even weaken to the 200 EMA at 51,944.On the other hand, in case Bitcoin breaks sharply above the downtrend channel and consolidates above $65,000, the outlook could be positive. Hence, we could expect it to reach 6/8 Murray at 68,750 and the psychological level of $70,000.Given that there is strong bearish pressure, in case of any technical rebound as long as BTC trades below 64,727, we will look for opportunities to sell.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCHF stays below ceiling area. A move above 0.9156 is needed to increase bullish bias

Apr 30, 2024 | 07:02 am

The USDCHF is higher on the day, but continued to find resistance to sellers against a swing area ceiling between 0.91469 and 0.9156. If the buyers are to take more control, they need to get and stay above that level. Absent that, the 100-day moving average of 0.91278. The 200 hour movie are to 0.9118 and the 100-day moving average on the four hour chart at 0.9108 or downside targets that if broken would increase the bearish bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trading Signals for Ethereum (ETH/USD) for April 30 - May 7, 2024: sell below $3,177 (21 SMA - 1/8 Murray)

Apr 30, 2024 | 07:01 am

Ethereum is trading around 3,014.42 under strong bearish pressure and within a downtrend channel forming since March 6. Over the past few days since April 11, ETH/USD has been trying to break the strong resistance at 3,281 but without success and dropped several times.On April 28, Ethereum tried to consolidate above 3,300 but retreated due to strong bearish pressure. Currently, it is extending its bearish cycle. It is expected that if it consolidates below the 21 SMA, the price could reach -2/8 Murray located at 2,812 and even the 200 EMA located at 2,754.The bearish pressure exerted on Ether could be alleviated and profits gained, if it consolidates above 3,281 in the next few days. Then, it could reach 2/8 Murray at 3,437 and finally, 4/8 of Murray located at 3,750.The eagle indicator is giving an oversold signal. So, we believe Ether could get a technical bounce in the coming days if it finds a good bottom around the psychological level of $3,000 or around 2,750.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 06:27 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0695; (P) 1.0714; (R1) 1.0740; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.0752 will resume the rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0780). On the downside, break of 1.0673 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside for retesting 1.0601 low. In the […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 06:22 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2504; (P) 1.2537; (R1) 1.2595; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. On the upside, above 1.2568 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 55 D EMA (now at 1.2580). Sustained break there will argue that fall from 1.2892 has completed already, and bring further rise to this […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart the FX trading day for April 30 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

Apr 30, 2024 | 06:19 am

The USD has moved higher after the stronger US employment cost data for the first quarter. That data point is one of the favored measures of employment inflation for the Fed. Of course the Fed starts its today meeting today which will end tomorrow with the rate announcement at 2 PM ET. Fed Chair Powell will address reporters at 2:30 PM ET. The odds on a breakout are now 50-50 for September. That has backed up from June not long ago (and remember when there was six cuts expected in 2024?).The rise in the US dollar has the EURUSD moving down toward it 200-hour moving average 1.06874. It is also below its 100-day moving average at 1.07112. Staying below the 100-hour moving average and moving below the 200-hour moving average would increase the bearish bias going forward.The USDJPY moved higher in the face of potential intervention. However fundamentally, the US federal bank tendency is working toward unchanged in 2024. Meanwhile, the BOJ does not seem to be in any hurry to raise rates. Technically, watch the 100 and 200-bar moving average on the 5- minute chart. You can find out why it is so important by watching the video above.The GBPUSD moved lower to test it at a 100-hour moving average at 1.2506 (and the natural support 1.2500. THe price high in the European session stalled against its 200-day moving average of 1.25543. Those moving average extremes below and above define the trading range. It would now take a move outside of that range to either increase the bearish bias (below the hour moving average) or increase a bullish bias above the 200-day moving average going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 06:19 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.91; (P) 156.95; (R1) 159.37; More… USD/JPY is extending consolidation from 160.20 and intraday remains neutral. Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 154.95 to bring recovery. But break of 160.20 is not envisaged for now. However, firm break of 154.95 will turn bias to the […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 30, 2024 | 06:11 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9079; (P) 0.9116; (R1) 0.9143; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 0.9155 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9085 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback. In the […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Monthly Forecast: May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 05:33 am

Wide Price Range Could Become Calmer Moving Ahead

The EUR is the strongest an the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins

Apr 30, 2024 | 05:17 am

As the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is stronger. US stocks are marginally lower. European shares are lower as well. Yields are marginally higher. Overnight, Australian retail sales came in we can expected at -0.4% versus 0.2% expected. In China, Manufacturing and services PMI came in lower than the previous month. Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4, which is below the prior month value of 50.8.Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, which is below the prior month value of 53.0.The data helped to weaken the AUD and NZD who rely on China for growth. Today on the economic calendar in North America. Canada GDP MoM (8:30 AM ET). Estimate 0.3% versus 0.6% last month.US employment cost index for the first quarter (10 AM ET). 1.0% versus 0.9% last quarterUS Case Schiller home price data for February will be released (9 AM ET) with a gain of 0.1% MoM and 6.7% YoY expected.US consumer confidence (10 AM ET). Estimate 104.0 versus 104.7 last monthTomorrow is a bigger day with the Federal Reserve rate decision at 2 PM. No change is expected. Fed Chair Powell will have the muzzle taken off him (the quiet period is over) and will be speaking on his and the Feds latest projections for inflation/growth/ employment and policy when he holds his press conference at 2 PM ET. The Fed decision will be followed later this week by the US jobs report on Friday which is expected to show another strong gain of 250K vs 303K last month. The unemployment rate is expected at 3.8% (unchanged and still strong), and the average hourly earnings are expected at 0.3%. Today is a big day for earnings. Below are a summary of the EPS and Revenues for some of the major releases and a indication of if they MISSED or BEAT expectations. There is a different industries in the earnings today with financials, manufacturing, food and beverage, oil, industrial and healthcare all represented:PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) MIXEDEarnings: $1.08 (Missed expectations of $1.22)Revenue: $7.7 billion (Beat expectations of $7.51 billion)Corning Inc (GLW) BEATEarnings: $0.38 (Beat expectations of $0.35)Revenue: $3.26 billion (Beat expectations of $3.12 billion)McDonald's Corp (MCD) MIXEDEarnings: $2.70 (Missed expectations of $2.72)Revenue: $6.17 billion (Beat expectations of $6.16 billion)Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) MIXEDEarnings: $1.46 (Beat expectations of $1.36)Revenue: $21.85 billion (Missed expectations of $22.27 billion)Molson Coors Beverage Co (TAP) BEATEarnings: $0.95 (Beat expectations of $0.74)Revenue: $2.60 billion (Beat expectations of $2.50 billion)Coca-Cola Co (KO) BEATEarnings: $0.72 (Beat expectations of $0.70)Revenue: $11.30 billion (Beat expectations of $11.01 billion)Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) MIXEDEarnings: $2.58 (Beat expectations of $2.46)Revenue: $8.768 billion (Missed expectations of $8.92 billion)Marathon Petroleum (MPC) BEATEarnings: $2.58 (Beat expectations of $2.42)Revenue: $33.2 billion (Beat expectations of $32.01 billion)Eaton Corporation PLC (ETN) BEATEarnings: $2.40 (Beat expectations of $2.29)Revenue: $5.943 billion (Beat expectations of $5.91 billion)Restaurant Brands International Inc (QSR) BEATEarnings: $0.73 (Beat expectations of $0.72)Revenue: $1.74 billion (Beat expectations of $1.70 billion)3M Co (MMM) BEATEarnings: $2.39 (Beat expectations of $2.10)Revenue: $7.7 billion (Beat expectations of $7.63 billion)Trane Technologies Inc (TT) BEATEarnings: $1.92 (Beat expectations of $1.65)Revenue: $4.2 billion (Beat expectations of $4.1 billion)GE Healthcare (GEHC) MISSEDEarnings: $0.90 (Missed expectations of $0.91)Revenue: $4.6 billion (Missed expectations of $4.8 billion)After the close, it gets interested with Amazon, AMD, Super Micro Computers and Starbucks all scheduled to release. Apple will report their earnings after the close on Thursday.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading up by $0.46 at $83.11. At this time yesterday, the price was at $83.76Gold is trading down $24.64 or -1.06% at $2310.90. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2337.11Silver is trading down $0.60 or -2.25% at $26.52.. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.33Bitcoin currently trades at $60,966 (and at session highs – the high price reach $64,714). At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,310In the premarket, the US major indices are trading modestly higher after gains in training last week.Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -42.09 point. Yesterday, the index rose 146.43 points or 0.38% at 38386.10S&P futures are implying a decline of -5.97 points. Yesterday, the index rose 16.21 points or 0.22% at 5116.16Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -24.97 points. Yesterday, the index rose 55.18 points for 0.35% at 15983.08The European indices are trading mostly lower ahead of the US stock open (exception is a UK FTSE 100):German DAX, -0.39%France CAC , -0.19%UK FTSE 100, +0.50%Spain's Ibex, -1.58%Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.40% (delayed 10 minutes)Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly higherJapan's Nikkei 225, +1.24%China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.26%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.09%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.35%Looking at the US debt market, yields are mostly lower after rising yesterday after the GDP data.2-year yield 4.974%, +0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.978%5-year yield 4.651% +1.3 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.653%10-year yield 4.61%, +1.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.623%30-year yield 4.738%, +0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.737%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads moved more inverted:The 2-10 year spread is at -35.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -35.5 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -23.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -24.2 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are higher: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 30, 2024 | 05:04 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite finished the day mostly flat as the lack of catalysts and the wait for the major economic releases kept the market at bay. The week will start today as the we get some economic data and from tomorrow onwards, we will have the top tier releases and the FOMC rate decision. The market might not like another set of hot data as that should translate in more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations with even a rate hike becoming more likely. Right now, good but not too hot data is what the market is looking for to push into new highs. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite reached a key resistance zone around the 15929 level where we can also find the confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where the sellers will likely step in with a defined risk above the Fibonacci level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got stuck into a little consolidation at the resistance although the price continues to slowly push to the upside. This week we have key economic data and the FOMC rate decision on the agenda, so the direction will likely be set by the data releases. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price action into the resistance level might have formed a bearish flag, but we will need to see the price breaking the bottom trendline to confirm it. In case of a breakout to the downside, the measured target would stand around the 14700 level. Upcoming EventsToday, we have the US Q1 Employment Cost Index and the Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we get the US ADP, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Job Openings and the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP and ISM Services PMI. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

CB consumer confidence. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 30, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the April consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is due in the United States. It is based on a survey of 5.0K American households and considers their vision of the current and future economic situation. It is a leading indicator that predicts consumer spending that is part of economic activity. The value may decline from 104.7 points to 104.0 points, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

EUR/USD: Sideways within a medium-term downtrend

Apr 30, 2024 | 04:16 am

Eurozone preliminary core CPI rate for April continued to inch lower at 2.7% y/y, its slowest pace of inflationary pressure since February 2022. 2-year and 10-year Eurozone sovereign bonds/US Treasuries yield spread discounts have continued to widen which supports a potential medium to long-term bearish trend on the EUR/USD. Watch the 1.0740 key short-term resistance […]

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 30, 2024 | 04:04 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US Q1 GDP surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong economy, nonetheless. The US PCE came in line with expectations.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The market expects the first rate cut in September. NZDThe RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged as expected with no change as the central bank continues to state that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive level for a sustained period.The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.The labour market report beat expectations across the board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth. The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in expansion. The market expects the first cut in August.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD managed to erase most of the losses from the US CPI release and almost reached the key trendline resistance around the 0.60 handle where we had also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The price couldn’t push right into it as the pair rolled over before that. We may be heading back into the 0.5860 support but the sellers will need to break some key levels on the lower timeframes to keep pushing to the downside. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price bounced from the key support zone around the 0.5920 level where the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally back into the major trendline targeting a break above it. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.5860 support. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD for some time as it was rallying into the major trendline. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it led to a pullback into the support zone but a break below it would confirm a reversal. This week is full of economic data which will likely give us a direction for the next few weeks. Upcoming EventsToday, we have the US Q1 Employment Cost Index and the Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we get the New Zealand Jobs data, and later in the day the US ADP, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Job Openings and the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP and ISM Services PMI. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Analysis: 1.25 Level Supports Bearish Dominance

Apr 30, 2024 | 03:54 am

During recent Forex trading, the GBP/USD exchange rate recovered last week but was unable to maintain the 1.25 level.

USD/JPY Analysis: Amid Volatile Performance

Apr 30, 2024 | 03:46 am

Currency traders are warning that the Japanese government may need to repeatedly act to support the beleaguered yen as economic forces are likely to continue to weigh on its value.

EUR/USD Analysis: Bulls Await More Stimulus

Apr 30, 2024 | 03:37 am

EUR/USD is at risk of further weakness over the next five days, especially if eurozone inflation data comes in below expectations.

WTI Crude Oil Monthly Forecast: May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 03:35 am

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been very noisy during the month of April as we continue to see a lot of tension in the Middle East.

Gross domestic product. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 30, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), February data on gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada is due. It is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy and considers domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. The value may fall from 0.6% to 0.3% MoM. Read more

USD/MXN Monthly Forecast: May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 03:28 am

The US dollar has been bullish against the Mexican peso during the bulk of the month of April.

S&P 500 Monthly Forecast: May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 03:18 am

The S&P 500 has been very noisy for the month of April, which should not be a huge surprise considering that we have seen so much in the way of upward momentum.

EUR/USD. April 30th. Sellers await weak inflation data in the EU

Apr 30, 2024 | 03:10 am

The EUR/USD pair on Monday retraced to the corrective level of 100.0%-1.0696, rebounded from it, experienced slight growth, and returned to this level again. Another rebound of quotes will allow for a small upward movement toward the upper line of the ascending trend channel. If the pair's exchange rate consolidates below the channel, it will work in favor of the US currency and resume the decline toward the corrective level of 127.2%-1.0619. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from April 2nd), and the new upward wave is still too weak to break the last peak from April 9th. Thus, we are dealing with a "bearish" trend, and there is currently no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the new upward wave must break the peak of the previous wave (from April 9th). If the next downward wave fails to break the last low from April 16th, this will also be a sign of a trend change to "bullish." Until then, bears will maintain the upper hand.The information background on Monday was interesting but scarce. The inflation level in Germany in April remained unchanged at 2.2% y/y, while the core inflation slightly accelerated to 2.4% y/y. These changes, or rather their almost complete absence, did not affect traders' sentiment. However, today is a different story. In the European Union, five important reports will be released simultaneously, which must be noticed by the market. The most important ones are GDP and inflation in the EU. Given the current state of the EU economy, people are still waiting for strong growth. And strong growth is necessary for bull traders to have grounds for new purchases of the euro. The same applies to the inflation report. Since inflation in Germany has not accelerated, a weak value can be expected in the EU as well. The Consumer Price Index continues to move towards the 2.0% mark, so the ECB Governing Council may begin easing at the next meeting. For traders, this is a reason to start selling the euro again. On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the corrective level of 23.6%-1.0644 after forming two "bullish" divergences in the CCI indicator and RSI indicator, moving below 20. Thus, a reversal in favor of the European currency occurred, and the process of growth toward the corrective level of 38.2%-1.0765 began. A "bearish" divergence has formed in the CCI indicator, which may put an end to the euro's growth at this stage. A rebound of quotes from the level of 1.0765 will work in favor of the US currency and resume the decline toward the Fibonacci level of 0.0%–1.0450.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:During the last reporting week, speculators closed 11,616 long contracts and opened 10,597 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group has become "bearish" and is rapidly strengthening. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 167,000, while short contracts amount to 177,000. The situation will continue to shift in favor of the bears. In the second column, we see that the number of short positions has increased from 92,000 to 177,000 over the last three months. During the same period, the number of long positions decreased from 211,000 to 167,000. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need strong fundamental support to resume the "bullish" trend. However, the recent information background is more supportive of bears.News calendar for the US and EU:EU - Change in retail trade volume in Germany (06:00 UTC).EU - Unemployment rate in Germany (07:55 UTC).EU - Change in GDP volume in the first quarter in Germany (08:00 UTC).EU - Change in GDP volume in the first quarter (09:00 UTC).EU - Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC).On April 30th, the economic events calendar contains five entries, all of which are important in their own right. The influence of the information background on traders' sentiment today may be moderately strong throughout the day.Forecast for EUR/USD and advice for traders:Selling the pair is possible today upon consolidation below the ascending corridor on the hourly chart with a target at 1.0619. Buying the euro was possible upon closing (and upon rebound) above the level of 1.0696 on the hourly chart with a target at 1.0764, but bulls are currently quite weak, and they have yet to manage to reach the level of 1.0764. Caution is advised with purchases.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY stabilizes after roller-coaster Monday

Apr 30, 2024 | 03:09 am

The Japanese yen is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.88, up 0.34%. It has been a relatively quiet day for the yen after massive movement over the past two days. On Friday dollar-yen jumped 1.7% and broke above 158, but the real drama unfolded on Monday, when the yen […]

GBP/USD. April 30th. Bulls continue to attack, but American reports could help the bears

Apr 30, 2024 | 03:04 am

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday experienced growth to the corrective level of 38.2%-1.2565, followed by a rebound. Thus, a reversal in favor of the American currency occurred, and the process of decline toward the level of 1.2517 began. If the pair's exchange rate consolidates below this level, it will increase the likelihood of further decline towards the next Fibonacci level of 50.0%-1.2464. A rebound of quotes from the level of 1.2517 will allow traders to expect a resumption of growth towards the levels of 1.2565 and 1.2611. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, and the new upward wave has yet to approach the last peak from April 9th. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains "bearish," and there are currently no signs of its completion. The first sign of a shift to a bullish stance could be a breakthrough of the peak from April 9th, but bulls need to overcome a distance of about 220 pips to the zone of 1.2705–1.2715. It is unlikely that a trend change to "bullish" should be expected in the coming days. A new downward wave, if weak and does not break the low from April 22nd, could also indicate a trend change.On Monday, there was no significant news for GBP/USD, and today - there will be no important news either in the UK or in the US. However, the next three days of the week could significantly influence the movement of the pair's quotes. Already on Wednesday evening, the results of the third FOMC meeting of the year will be announced. The interest rate is expected to remain at 5.5%, and Jerome Powell is expected to maintain a "hawkish" rhetoric, as the US Consumer Price Index has been accelerating in recent months rather than decreasing. At the moment, there are no reasons for the FOMC to discuss a rate cut. Some changes in the QT program are possible, but they are not significant for the US currency. On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the level of 1.2450. Thus, the upward movement may continue towards the next level of 1.2620, but most likely, it will end soon near the upper line of the descending trend channel. No impending divergences are observed in any indicator today. A rebound of the pair's exchange rate from the upper line of the channel will work in favor of the American and the resumption of the decline towards the Fibonacci level of 50.0%-1.2289.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:The sentiment of the "non-commercial" trader category became more "bearish" over the past reporting week. The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 23,341 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 11,511 units. The overall sentiment of major players has changed, and now bears dictate their terms in the market. The gap between the number of long and short contracts is: 48,000 versus 75,000.There are still prospects for a decline in the pound. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has decreased from 62,000 to 48,000, while the number of short positions has increased from 47,000 to 75,000. Over time, bulls will start to get rid of Buy positions or increase Sell positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been exhausted. Bears have demonstrated their weakness and complete reluctance to advance over the past few months. However, I still expect the pound to start a more significant decline.News calendar for the US and UK:On Tuesday, the economic events calendar contains only some important entries. The influence of the information background on market sentiment today will be absent.Forecast for GBP/USD and advice for traders:Selling the pound is possible today upon rebound on the hourly chart from the level of 1.2565, with targets at 1.2517 and 1.2464. Selling is also possible upon consolidation below 1.2517. Buying the pair was possible upon a rebound from the level of 1.2464 and upon closing above 1.2517 with a target of 1.2565. This target has been achieved. Today, buying is possible upon rebounds from 1.2517 or 1.2464, but the strength of the bulls is waning.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 30, 2024 | 02:46 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US Q1 GDP surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong economy, nonetheless. The US PCE came in line with expectations.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The market expects the first rate cut in September. AUDThe RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and finally dropped the tightening bias.The CPI report beat expectations across the board with high underlying inflation measures.The latest labour market report missed expectations.The latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI almost jumping back into expansion while the Services PMI ticked slightly lower remaining in expansion.The market expects the first rate cut in February 2025.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD managed to erase most of the losses from the US CPI release and almost reached the trendline resistance around the 0.66 handle. The price couldn’t push right into it as the pair rolled over before that. We are now back at the key support zone around the 0.6520 level where the buyers will look to step in with a defined risk below it to position for a break above the trendline and a rally into the 0.6623 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.6272 level. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke below the upward trendline and the red 21 moving average that were defining the short term bullish trend. This breakout should give the sellers a bit more conviction for a resumption of the major downtrend although they will need also a break below the key support to confirm it. We will also have many key US economic data this week and another set of hot releases will likely be a tailwind for the greenback. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD for some time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we got a breakout of the trendline which should point to a reversal although we will also need a break below the key support zone to confirm it. The buyers will likely pile in here to position for a break above the major downward trendline, while the sellers will wait for a break below the support to position for a drop into the 0.6272 level or use this pullback into the broken trendline to position into the break of the support with a better risk to reward setup. Upcoming EventsToday, we have the US Q1 Employment Cost Index and the Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we get the US ADP, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Job Openings and the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP and ISM Services PMI. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD Technical Analysis - Pullback or reversal?

Apr 30, 2024 | 01:26 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US Q1 GDP surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong economy, nonetheless. The US PCE came in line with expectations.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The market expects the first rate cut in September. CADThe BoC left interest rates unchanged at 5.00% as expected changing a line in the statement that indicated less concern about inflation and thus the possibility of a cut in June if the trend remains intact.The latest Canadian CPI came in line with expectations although the underlying inflation measures eased further.On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations across the board although we saw an uptick in wage growth which is something that the BoC is watching closely.The Canadian Manufacturing PMI improved slightly in March while the Services PMI weakened further. Both the measures remain in contractionary territory. The market expects the first rate cut in June.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD bounced near the key support zone around the 1.3620 level where had also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. If we get another push to the downside, we can expect the buyers to step in at the support with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 1.39 handle. Alternatively, if the price were to continue lower, we can expect the buyers to lean on the major trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look to pile in at every break lower to keep targeting the 1.3225 level. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is at a key resistance zone around the 1.37 handle where we can find the confluence of the downward trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the Fibonacci level to position for a break below the 1.3620 support with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and position for a rally into the 1.39 handle. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price recently diverged with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we got a pullback into the downward trendline and the Fibonacci resistance, but if the price continues higher, the next target would stand around the 1.3731 high where a further breakout would open the door for a rally into the 1.39 handle. Upcoming EventsToday, we have the US Q1 Employment Cost Index and the Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we get the US ADP, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Job Openings and the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP and ISM Services PMI. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Forex forecast 04/30/2024: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Oil and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga

Apr 30, 2024 | 01:25 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Video Agenda: 00:00 INTRO 00:14 Today's key events: China Manufacturing PMI, German GDP, EU CPI, CB Consumer Confidence, German Retail Sales, German Unemployment Change, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 03:39 EUR/USD 05:04 GBP/USD 06:52 USD/JPY 08:04 OIL 09:10 BTC/USD Useful links:My other articles are available in this section: https://www.instaforex.com/analytics_authors?author=46InstaForex course for beginners: https://www.instaforex.com/distance_training_programPopular Analytics: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysisOpen trading account: https://www.instaforex.com/fast_open_new_accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 30

Apr 30, 2024 | 00:00 am

Overview of trading and tips on EUR/USDThe price test of 1.0713 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, which confirmed the entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair fell by about 25 pips. Yesterday's inflation data on Spain and Germany, which turned out to be below economists' forecasts but higher than previous values, led to a spike in volatility, but there were no significant changes in the market.This morning, everything could change, and the pair could break out of the sideways channel. Germany will release reports on GDP and unemployment. Furthermore, there are general reports on the Eurozone's GDP and inflation data, which the European Central Bank is closely paying attention to. Good figures will allow the euro to rise one last time before tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting, so be prepared to quickly take profits if the pair shows growth. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0713 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0748. At the level of 1.0748, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today only after good eurozone data, in continuation of the uptrend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0679 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0713 and 1.0748.Sell signalsScenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0679 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0643, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate in the area of the daily high and after weak data from Germany. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0713 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0679 and 1.0643.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 30

Apr 30, 2024 | 00:00 am

Overview of trading and tips on GBP/USDThe price test of 1.2520 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator sharply fell from the zero mark, which limited the pair's bearish potential. For this reason, I did not sell. A similar story happened with buying the pound around 1.2548. During the price test when the MACD got far from the zero mark, it also limited the pair's bullish potential. Yesterday, the absence of UK data supported the pound, which made it possible to update weekly highs. Today, the UK will release minor reports, so even in the event of weak figures, it is unlikely for the pound to sharply drop. In particular, these are reports on the M4 money supply, mortgage applications and net lending. If the data exceeds forecasts, why not consider it a reason to buy the pound ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting? As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy the pound today when GBP/USD reaches the entry point at 1.2540 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 1.2578 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.2578, I'm going to close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). You can count on the pound's growth today in continuation of the upward trend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2513 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2540 and 1.2578.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell the pound today after testing the level of 1.2513 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be 1.2484, where I am going to close short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from that level). You can sell the pound after the pair fails to consolidate near the local high, counting on a small correction after weak UK data. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2540 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.2513 and 1.2484.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 30

Apr 30, 2024 | 00:00 am

Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPYThe price test of 156.53 at the beginning of the US session occurred at a time when the MACD indicator sharply rose from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. After the next Bank of Japan currency intervention, there was a price test of 155.75. But it occurred when MACD went down a lot, so I preferred to wait for one more test of the level to realize the second scenario for buying. Unfortunately, the pair only rose by 30 pips and that was the end of it, which is very little considering yesterday's volatility. Today we can see how the market is gradually going back to normal, as the BOJ no longer intervenes in the currency market. Most likely, traders will use the pair's dips to take long positions, which I also plan to take advantage of in the first half of the day as the bullish market develops. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 156.97 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 157.59 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 156.59, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today in continuation of the upward trend - especially after traders quickly bought out all the BOJ's efforts to contain the yen's weakness. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 156.62 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 156.97 and 157.59.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 156.62 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 156.11, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return in case of another central bank intervention. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 156.97 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 156.62 and 156.11.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Consumer price index. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 30, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), April data on the consumer price index of EU countries is due. It is the main indicator of inflation and determines changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, etc. It has a significant impact on monetary policy decisions. The consumer price index may stay at 0.8% MoM and 2.4% YoY, while the core CPI may remain at 1.1% MoM and decline from 2.9% to 2.6% YoY. Read more

Gross domestic product. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 30, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), data on EU Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) is due – the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy and taking into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. It may increase from 0.1% to 0.2% YoY and from 0.0% to 0.1% QoQ. Read more

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 29, 2024 | 23:55 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.15; (P) 196.84; (R1) 200.07; More.. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidations from 200.53 short term top continues. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 193.51 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 200.53 will resume larger up trend. In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Gross domestic product. Germany, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), Q1 German gross domestic product (GDP) is due, the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy, which considers domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. It may increase from −0.3% to 0.1% QoQ and consolidate around −0.2% YoY, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

Unemployment rate. Germany, 09:55 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 22:55 pm

At 09:55 (GMT+2), April data on the unemployment rate is due in Germany. This indicator records the percentage of registered unemployed people over 18 years to the total working-age population. It may remain at 5.9%. Read more

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of AUD/CAD Cross Currency Pairs, Tuesday April 30, 2024.

Apr 29, 2024 | 22:18 pm

If we pay attention to the 4 hour chart of AUD/CAD cross currency pairs, there is the appearance of deviation between price movement with Stochastic Oscillator indicator which also happens to touch the Resistance level from Chart Daily Orderblock @ 0,8957 so that in the near future, AUD/CAD has the potential to weaken down to the level 0,8918 and if this level successfully broken down, then the next target to be aimed is 0,8891 and if the momentum as well as the volatility is supporting, then it is not impossible that the level 0,8778 will be the next target to be aimed, but if on the way suddenly there is a strengthening correction which breaks above the level 0,8918, then all of the weakness scenario that has been described before will become invalid and cancel itself.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Gold Commodity Asset, Tuesday April 30, 2024.

Apr 29, 2024 | 22:18 pm

With the appearance of deviation between price movement with Stochastic Oscillator indicator as well as the appearance of bearish Flag pattern as well as supporting by EMA 20 which intersects of death cross with EMA 50 then the probablity of weakness on Gold commodity asset on the 4 hour chart is widely open so that based on the facts, in the near future, Gold has the potential to depreciated to the level 2319,32 and if this level successfully broken downward, then Gold will still continue to weaken to the level 2299,04, and if the momentum and the downward volatility still continue, Gold still has the potential to keep goin down to the level 2289,10 unless if on the way to those targets suddenly there is a strengthening of Gold which is quite significant especially if manages to break above the level 2352,03 then all the weakness scenario that has been described before will automatically cancel itself and become invalid.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

KOF leading indicators. Switzerland, 09:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), the April index of leading economic indicators from the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) is due, which considers 12 indicators related to consumer confidence, production, new orders, and the real estate market, and also reflects the development outlook for the next six months. It may grow from 101.5 points to 102.1 points, supporting the franc. Read more

Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 30. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 29, 2024 | 21:20 pm

Analyzing Monday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart No significant movements from the EUR/USD pair on Monday, which was quite expected. The only notable event for the day was the inflation report from Germany. However, Germany is just one country out of 27 in the European Union, so obviously, the overall European inflation data, which will be published today, is more important for the market and the euro.Furthermore, the inflation figures for Germany were hardly groundbreaking. The market expected consumer prices to rise 2.3%, but the actual figure came in at 2.2%, and it was the same rate as in March. Therefore, there was nothing for traders to react to. The price remains within an ascending channel, which clearly appears to be corrective. We don't expect the euro to decline until the price consolidates below this channel. However, as before, we anticipate downward movement in the medium term.EUR/USD on 5M chart Four sell signals were formed around the level of 1.0725 on the 5-minute timeframe. The pair bounced off this level four times. In the most favorable scenario, it fell by 20 pips. There were no buy signals, so there couldn't have been any loss on the short positions. The price never managed to reach the nearest target level, so it was very difficult to make profit from the trades.Trading tips on Tuesday:On the hourly chart, the downtrend persists, but the EUR/USD pair is currently correcting higher. We believe that the euro should continue to fall in the medium term, as it is still too high, and in general, the trend is headed downwards. However, at the moment, the market is likely gathering strength before it starts a new downward movement.Today, the pair may continue its downward movement as it bounced off the upper boundary of the channel. If the price consolidates below the ascending channel, it would signal the start of a new leg in the downward trend. In this case, we should expect a significant decline in the euro.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. Market participants now look to the release of the inflation and GDP reports in the European Union. Germany will also release reports on retail sales, the unemployment rate, and GDP for the first quarter. As a result, we may see significant movements in the morning, which could continue into the US session.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 30. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 29, 2024 | 21:20 pm

Analyzing Monday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart The GBP/USD pair continued to trade higher on Monday. Take note that the euro remained stagnant, while the British pound had much less reason to rise or show any significant intraday trend. Neither the UK nor the US had any interesting events, so once again the pound showed baseless growth. If a few days ago, the rise could have been attributed to a technical correction, now, the pound is rising in habit just like it did for the last 6-8 months. In other words, it's groundless. If this persists, the downward trend may be forgotten. If this week's US reports turn out weaker than forecasted, there's no doubt that the dollar will fall further.GBP/USD on 5M chart Three trading signals were formed around the level of 1.2541 on the 5-minute timeframe. The price bounced off this level twice and penetrated it once. All signals were clear, but the actual movements left much to be desired. In the first two cases, the price fell by 20 and 15 pips, respectively, while on the buy signal, it rose by 15 pips. Although the pair was not stagnant during the day, it was still challenging to make profit from these movements. The price did not reach the target level in any of these cases.Trading tips on Tuesday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has excellent prospects for forming a downward trend, but is currently going through a correction. This corrective phase has been quite strong. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. Therefore, we only expect downward movement from the pair. However, if the market mindlessly buys the pound, then nothing can make the pound fall.Today, novice traders can look for new sell signals around the level of 1.2541. The market is not in a rush to sell the pair; from a technical standpoint, the upward movement may persist.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2544, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. On Tuesday, there are no important events scheduled in either the UK or the US. Therefore, traders will have nothing to react to, and volatility may be weak.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Key events on April 30: fundamental analysis for beginners

Apr 29, 2024 | 21:20 pm

Analysis of macroeconomic reports: There are more macroeconomic events on Tuesday, and they are quite significant. It all starts in Germany, where reports on GDP, retail sales, and unemployment will be published. Like before, these data are somewhat secondary of importance, but in the event of significant values, market reaction may follow. It's difficult to expect a high value for German GDP, so the euro is unlikely to receive support from this particular report.European GDP and inflation figures are also due during Tuesday's European market session. Undoubtedly, these reports are much more important for the market. Traders will focus on the inflation data. If it does not exceed the forecast value of 2.4% for April, the euro has no reason to strengthen. If it accelerates, then the euro may continue to correct higher, as in this case, the European Central Bank may postpone the first easing of monetary policy from June to July.Analysis of fundamental events:There are no notable fundamental events for Tuesday; the calendar does not contain any speeches by ECB, Federal Reserve, or Bank of England officials. Surely there will be several speeches during the day, but in the current circumstances, it is extremely difficult to expect new information from central bank representatives. We don't expect the officials to change their stance at the moment. General conclusion:Today, novice traders should pay attention to the eurozone inflation report. If its value aligns with the forecast or has a minor deviation, the market reaction may be weak. At the same time, accelerated inflation could trigger a rise in the euro, while a slowdown could lead to a decline. The other reports of the day are much less significant.Basic rules of a trading system:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Retail sales. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on retail sales is due in Germany. The indicator records the monthly quantity of all goods retailers sold based on samples of retail stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on gross domestic product (GDP). It may adjust from –1.9% to 0.4% MoM and from –4.9% to –4.6% YoY, supporting the euro. Read more

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 30, 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 20:53 pm

GBP/USDYesterday, the pound unexpectedly posted strong gains, exceeding 70 pips. The price surpassed the intermediate level of 1.2525, and now it only needs to move a little further to reach the target level of 1.2596, which coincides with the 50.0% corrective level. The Marlin oscillator has entered into positive territory, aiding the price in achieving its target.The Marlin oscillator continues its sideways movement on the 4-hour chart, significantly affecting the pound's bullish potential, especially considering the formation of a weak divergence. The price will rise further if it surpasses yesterday's high at 1.2568. If the price falls below the signal level of 1.2525, it would indicate weakness and prompt the bears to test support at the MACD line (1.2458).The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 30, 2024

Apr 29, 2024 | 20:53 pm

EUR/USDYesterday, the euro edged up, with resistance at 1.0724 holding firm, and the price consolidated below this mark on the daily timeframe. The price is falling in today's Asian session. The Marlin oscillator is turning downwards before reaching the zero line. The EUR/USD pair likely aims to return to the well-established range of 1.0636/56.The price is still above the indicator lines on the 4-hour chart, but the Marlin oscillator has bounced off the zero line twice and moved downwards, continuing to prompt the price to fall towards the nearest support, in this case, towards the MACD line (1.0675). Breaking below this line, which coincides with the April 26th low, would naturally allow the price to enter the target range. The primary scenario would only be disrupted once the price consolidates above the level of 1.0724. In this case, the price could set its sights on testing 1.0796, bypassing the intermediate level of 1.0757.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Housing starts. Japan, 07:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 20:00 pm

At 07:00 (GMT+2), Japan will present March data on the number of new houses, the construction of which began in the reporting month. It is one of the most important indicators of the national construction market. It may change from –8.2% to –7.6% YoY, putting pressure on the yen. Read more

Caixin Manufacturing PMI. China, 03:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 16:45 pm

At 03:45 (GMT+2), China will publish April data on the manufacturing business activity index from Caixin. The indicator reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects are assessed. It may correct from the current 51.1 points to 51.0 points, putting pressure on the yuan. Read more

Retail sales. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), Australia will release March retail sales data, a key indicator of consumer spending that has a significant impact on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The indicator records the monthly volume of all goods retailers sold based on samples of stores of different types and sizes. It may change from 0.3% to 0.2% MoM, putting pressure on the Australian dollar. Read more

ANZ business confidence. New Zealand, 03:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 16:00 pm

At 03:00 (GMT+2), the April business confidence index from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) is due. ANZ is New Zealand’s largest financial group by assets and profits. The growth from 22.9 points MoM will support the New Zealand dollar. Read more

Industrial production. Japan, 01:50 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 14:50 pm

At 01:50 (GMT+2), Japan will publish March industrial production data, which reflects the amount of manufactured goods and utilities produced in the country, taking into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electricity sector. It may grow from −0.6% to 3.4%, supporting the yen. Read more

Retail sales. Japan, 01:50 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 14:50 pm

At 01:50 (GMT+2), March data on retail sales is due in Japan. The indicator records the volume of all goods retail enterprises sold based on samples of retail stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on the gross domestic product (GDP). It may rise from 2.3% to 2.8% YoY, supporting the yen. Read more

Unemployment rate. Japan, 01:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 14:30 pm

At 01:30 (GMT+2), March unemployment data is due in Japan. This indicator records the percentage of registered unemployed people over 18 years to the total working-age population. In March, the figure may fall from 2.6% to 2.5%. Read more

Consumer price index. Germany, 14:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 03:00 am

At 14:00 (GMT+2), April data on the consumer price index in Germany is due. It is on of the key inflation indicators, which reflects changes in retail prices for a certain «basket» of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on, and has a significant impact on the decisions of regulators in the field of monetary policy. It may grow from 0.4% to 0.5% MoM and remain at 2.2% YoY, while the harmonized rate may adjust from 0.6% to 0.7% MoM and from 2.3% to 2.4% YoY. Read more

USD/JPY: An overextended intraday rally makes it vulnerable to a squeeze down with rumoured talks of FX intervention

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:26 am

USD/JPY extended its rally to hit 159.60 key long-term resistance (also the April 1990 secular swing high). Today’s Asian session’s swift upmove in USD/JPY has led to an increase in its volatility condition which increases the risk of FX intervention. Abrupt intraday movement in USD/JPY that wiped out earlier intraday gains has the hallmark of […]

Consumer confidence. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 29, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), April data on the consumer confidence index in the EU countries is due. The indicator is based on a survey of 2.3K households that assess the economic prospects. It is a leading indicator for consumer spending, with high readings indicating consumer optimism and vice versa. The April indicator may continue its negative trend from the current −14.7 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

Economic confidence index. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 28, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), April data on the economic confidence index in Turkey is due, reflecting the assessments and expectations of consumers and producers regarding the general situation, as well as corresponding trends. The value may grow from the current 100.0 points, supporting the lira. Read more

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 26, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil installations from Baker Hughes is due. The weekly report records changes in oil production capacity in the United States. The number of towers rose to 511 units, and a continuation of this trend could put pressure on oil prices. Read more

Michigan consumer sentiment. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 26, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish April data on changes in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. The indicator is calculated monthly based on a telephone survey of at least 500 American households and records consumer spending that is part of economic activity. It may decrease from 79.4 points to 77.8 points, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Australian dollar extends gains as PPI surges

Apr 26, 2024 | 04:24 am

The Australian dollar has posted four straight winning sessions this week and is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6534, up 0.24%. The Aussie has powered higher this week, climbing 1.82%. Australia’s PPI blows past estimate Australia’s Producer Prices index jumped 4.3% y/y in the first quarter, up […]

Swiss franc shrugs after SNB’s Jordan comments

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:58 am

The Swiss franc is steady on Friday. In the European session, USD/CHF is almost unchanged at 0.9118. It has been quite a ride for the Swiss franc, which hit eight-year highs against the US dollar in the last week of 2023. The US dollar has roared back in 2024, surging 8.2% against the Swiss currency. […]

USD/JPY volatile after inflation, BoJ meeting

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:43 am

The Japanese yen is swinging sharply on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.46, up 0.52%. It has been a busy Friday in Japan. Japanese inflation data, which was released just before the end of the Bank of Japan meeting, was much lower than expected. Tokyo Core CPI, which was overshadowed by […]

USD/JPY: Persistent JPY bearish trend intact despite growing intervention risk

Apr 25, 2024 | 19:38 pm

Tokyo’s core-core inflation for April came in at 1.8% y/y, its slowest pace of increase since September 2022 & below BoJ’s inflation target of 2%. The latest set of softer-than-expected Tokyo’s CPI may push back the timing of the next BoJ’s interest rate hike. Widening of US Treasuries-JGBs yield spread premium is likely to support […]

Pound edges higher after soft US GDP

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:46 am

The British is in positive territory on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2492, up 0.23%. US GDP slows to 1.6% Is the US economy finally slowing down? Recent key indicators, from nonfarm payrolls to consumer inflation have been stronger than expected, but the markets could hear the “thud” of today’s […]

USD/JPY ticks higher ahead of BoJ meeting

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:52 am

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Thursday. In the European session USD/JPY is trading at 155.61, up 0.17%. Earlier, the yen dropped to a 34-year low of 155.74. Friday will be a busy day out of Japan. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes food, is a key leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends. It […]

Euro rises after German consumer confidence improves

Apr 25, 2024 | 02:15 am

The euro has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0726, up 0.25%. German consumer confidence hits two-year high Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate index improved in April and again in the May forecast, as the German consumer is showing signs of optimism. The index improved to a revised -27.3 in […]

Canadian dollar dips as retail sales fall

Apr 24, 2024 | 11:08 am

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday after a five-day winning streak in which it gained 1.1%. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3703, up 0.29%. Canada’s retail sales down in February Canadian consumers are holding tight on the purse strings as spending has been weak in the first quarter. […]

AUD/USD extends gains as inflation higher than expected

Apr 24, 2024 | 05:42 am

The Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6504, up 0.27%. The Australian dollar rose as high as 0.6529 (0.64%) after the Australian inflation release but has pared about half of those gains. Australia’s inflation dips less than forecast Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in […]

Euro edges lower despite stronger German business confidence

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:19 am

The euro is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0685, down 0.16%. Germany shows signs of optimism Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index rose to 89.4 in April, up from a revised 87.9 in March and above the market estimate of 88.9. The index is still in negative territory (100 […]

Gold Technical: Is the bull run over after its worst daily decline in 2 years?

Apr 24, 2024 | 02:37 am

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: At risk of mean reversion corrective decline after 19% gain” published on 15 April 2024. Click here for a recap. The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have shaped the mean reversion decline after a test on the US$2,420 intermediate resistance. It tumbled by -2.7% […]

Market Insights Podcast – BOJ, AU inflation, US PCE and US Magnificent 7 stocks earnings in the focus

Apr 22, 2024 | 18:29 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, Australia’s monthly CPI (March) out on Wednesday (24 Apr) is expected to come in at a similar annualized pace of 3.4% as printed in February, its lowest reading since November 2021. Another set of soft inflation […]

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